Your geography, gender, and race comes into the odds as well. 1mountaintop lays out the macro math well: in 2018: 4049 nominations > 2424 of them were 3Q’d, > 1,223 admitted. So the odds at a high level look like 50%... but your personal odds could be much higher, or lower. Recruited athletes and academic students with LOAs have odds of nearly 100%, and if legend has it correctly that’s around 300 a year. So that number comes off the 1,223. Then applicants with Principal Nominations have odds of nearly 100%, and that number (whatever it is) has to come off the 1,223. Then take off another roughly 500 off the 1,223 if you’re not an under-represented minority or a woman.
http://www.usma.edu/news/Shared Documents/Class of 2019 to Enter West Point.pdf
Suddenly there might still be 1,500 3Q’s with nominations and only 500-700 slots still open and the odds are not 50% anymore. We could go on and on… If you are in a competitive district and Admissions ranks you as the number 4 of 10 walk-on-water slated applicants in your district in terms of Whole Candidate Score, your odds are lower. But maybe you’re the number 1 in a remote congressional district, and even though your Whole Candidate Score is lower than #2, #3, and #4 in the competitive district, you get the appointment and they don’t. And maybe #4 ends up getting in anyway as a "top 150" on the National Wating list. You just don’t know. And no one here knows, either; as they say on this site, don’t try comparing because you’ll go nuts worrying about something that is not in your control. Be patient. If this is what God wants for you to happen, it will happen.
Everyone who gets an appointment deserves it. They are all among the finest youth in our country. But not everyone who deserves an appointment gets one, if that makes sense. The size of the class is constrained.