I can't reiterate enough times how complicated the appointment process is. I wish I could tell you: "Complete all the following on this list, with a score of "X" or higher, and you automatically get an appointment". Unfortunately, it is so much more complicated than that. We try and give some insight on the appointment process, but there's so many variables. Each nomination source has so many "Guaranteed" (For a lack of a better term). And there are many nomination categories. (Click on the link in my signature block for the academy brochure, and you'll see all the nomination categories). Then; you have the National Pool, where basically everyone else competes in "After they've competed in their individual nomination slates". But then; not everyone who is offered an appointment will accept their appointment. But do they just go down the list on the national pool for the next applicant? No, not necessarily. If the person who turned down their appointment was from a guaranteed nomination slated slot, then the academy will go back to THAT SLATE and take an individual from there. If the person who turned it down came from the National Pool, then yes, the next person will come from the national pool. And in the mist of all this, the academy is also trying to balance the diversity of the incoming class. Remember, diversity is not just race or gender. It's economics, state representation, first generation going to college, exceptional world experiences, etc...
As for my son; early appointment are a totally different category also. Many colleges offer "Early acceptance". They do this to try and excite and entice the applicant to commit. In the case of the academies, the ONLY way to get an early appointment is if you have a Non-MOC nomination. Presidential, ROTC, etc... (You must have a nomination to get an appointment, and most/all MOC nominations don't even interview until the end of November and December). So my son had his MOC paperwork in for nominations, and was scheduled for an interview. But as soon as he received his early appointment, using the presidential nomination, he contacted his MOC's and informed them that he received an appointment, and wouldn't need to have a nomination from them. This freed up their slots for someone else. Had he pursued the MOC nomination, it's possible that he could have been charged later to the MOC slot, and freed back up the Presidential for someone else. That has occurred in the Army and possibly Naval academies. At the air force academy however; once my son ACCEPTED the appointment at the beginning of November, the air force academy removed one available slot from the presidential slate. The air force academy doesn't juggle nominations ONCE the appointment has been accepted. So; since my son accepted the appointment in November, there was no need to go to MOC interviews. His appointment was already allocated to the presidential slate, and nothing was going to change that.
Now; more applicable to the majority, where appointments are given out in March/April; it is very common for individuals to have a presidential and a MOC nomination. The academy will bounce these slates against each other. They will start with the Non-MOC nominations when possible. Because ALL individuals are authorized to apply for a MOC nomination, but not everyone is authorized to apply for the Non-MOC nominations.
But again; it is so much more complicated than you can imagine. There is absolutely no way for you to "Figure out the odds". You don't know all those in your district that have a nomination. You don't know all those in your state who have a nomination. If you make it to the National Pool, you have no idea if your scores are in the top 10% of the national pool or the bottom 10% of the national pool. EXAMPLE: The #2 person on a MOC's slate who didn't get the automatic slot for the MOC, could be at the 50% mark in the National Pool. While the #10 person on a MOC slate could have the score to make them in the top 10% of the national pool.
Sorry if this doesn't answer any of your questions. But the only somewhat guarantees in the process is that generally, there will be a guarantee of one individual from each of the 553 MOC slates. There will be 100 guaranteed presidentials. There will be guaranteed 20 JrROTC/ROTC appointments. There is usually about 50-60 guaranteed prior enlisted. (They are allowed up to 85). etc... down through all the nomination categories. When all is said and done, there will be approximately 750-800 appointments that are given out for all these guaranteed slots, as well as LOA's for those individuals the academy considers to be "No Brainers". They are that good. That will leave anywhere from 300-500 depending on how large they want the class size to be, to come from the national pool. This is the only somewhat guarantee of numbers I or anyone else can offer you. And even that is not guaranteed. The guaranteed MOC slots are about the ONLY guarantees there are. At least 1 person on the slate of 10 is going to be qualified and offered an appointment from each MOC slate. But all the others aren't even guaranteed. I.e. 500 presidential nomination may be awarded, and 100 may be authorized to receive an appointment using the presidential; but that doesn't mean there will always be 100 QUALIFIED applicants in the presidential category. If there's only 80, then only 80 will receive appointments. The UP TO is what's important. UP TO 85 prior enlisted. UP TO 20 JrROTC/ROTC. UP TO 100 presidential. Doesn't mean there WILL be.
Again; sorry that I can't help you figure out the odds, but I hope I made it make a little more sense to you. Later, and best of luck.... Mike.....