Reduction in force USAF

Discussion in 'Academy/Military News' started by agolson, Mar 30, 2010.

  1. agolson

    agolson Eagle43

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  2. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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  3. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Bullet laughs at this analogy, but I swear it is true.

    The AF has an eating disorder known as bulimia. (not making like of eating disorders, so don't flame me). The AF gorges on expanding troops, and then all of the sudden says, OMG, I am too heavy, time to purge.

    They did this in 92-93, with the 6-12 yr groups and SERBs, then again in the early 2000's with only newly commissioned. Now we are back at the 6-12 yr groups. Obviously, they have problems regulating the Field Grade to Commission %.

    FYI, want to predict the future before a RIF, watch the O-4 promotion rate...if it is high (some yrs it was as high as 75-80%) that means they are short on field grade (i.e new commission are at risk). If it is low(new commission are safe), that means strategic planning says they need to get rid of them. Even after the RIF in 92-93, there were 4 or 5 yrs where the O-4 board was hitting below 60%. Right now the strategic plan says they have less in the Company grade then Field, and will be that way for at least 2 yrs. Watch I bet the O-4 board will be very low so they can do the 2 and out. If you don't have 16 yrs in then you can't stay for 20 even with the 2 and out. You will also see boards speed up so they can push them out. The writing was also on the wall about 3 yrs ago for Field, O4 to O5, they were passing over fliers, which are the ones that typically have the highest promotion rate. It was a very quiet sign, but still it was there.
     
  4. Just_A_Mom

    Just_A_Mom Member

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    Interesting. Anyone know if more AFA cadets will be requesting to cross commission?
     
  5. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    To where? Everyone's cutting.
     
  6. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Obviously to the Army LITS.

    I highly doubt you will see alot of AFA cadets take them up on this offer. Let's remember the AF is the corporate branch of the military.:rolleyes: There are not going to be a lot of people screaming like Horshack from Welcome Back Mr. Kotter...PICK ME PICK ME! You will get some, but they are the ones that applied to multiple branches, yet then again I question 4 yrs of being ingrained that the AF is the best branch, how many will say PICK ME PICK because they now believe the Army is the best branch.

    I think where you will get this interservice from is the OCS, who say I want to serve now. It is very difficult to get UPT from OCS, so you are looking at people who would be Intel, MSSQ, CE, AF, etc in either branch and their emotional tie to the branch is much lower, it is more about serving the country in any branch then being in a particular branch or job.

    As far OTS and ROTC, that is no real biggie. People should have also seen this coming down the road, at least starting last yr when many scholarships were being given out in the 2K range and not the typical Type 2 or 7. In other words the AF has already slowed down the ROTC route preemptively.
    Additionally ROTC grads get the last slots, after the AFA. Fiscally moving them from 10 to 11, means that instead of starting in Sept 10, they will start in October 10, 30 days later. Remember the military fiscal calendar is Oct 1 to Sept 30. The majority of AFA cadets do not start until July. Bullet was an ROTC grad, he went active in March, @ 9 months after he was commissioned. Don't start reading into it more than a minor slow down in the pipeline. I don't know how many are commissioned every yr in the ROTC program, but my guess would be that this might affect 10% of the grads. I am betting that there are at least 5K ROTC grads every yr. especially when you look at large dets like OSU, UVA, ER, with 100 cadets ea per grade, add in schools like A&M, Citadel, VMI, VaTech, UMD, UMiami, etc. and you can hit @10K. 447 being delayed until October instead of November is NOTHING!

    Palace Chase has always been a great asset, but it will be very hard since the economy is in a poor situation.

    As I stated on CC, look at the whole article. Not every section of the AF is up for RIF. It is code specific. If anything cadets should look at those codes and question if they want to enter the field.

    Secondly don't freak, especially those going the flying route. Here's why:
    1. Bullet 6 mos ago was sent an email by the AF if he would consider stepping back into the jet.

    UH NO...we would be killed by the financial paycut! However, if the AF was abundant in fliers they would have never sent out the mass email asking new retirees to return.

    2. Our close friend left in 01 to fly commercial, he now is stepping back in as a UAV pilot. He was gone for 9 yrs! He is coming back at the exact same rank and yrs served, O4. He is at Creech right now.

    If the AF was getting rid of everyone across the board, they wouldn't be bringing him back in!

    3. Bullet's FTU classmate left also back in 04 to fly commercial. He just completed his TX course and is an IP at Columbus as an O4.

    Again, if there is was a huge problem across the board they wouldn't bring him back either.

    This is about the the job position...guessing that if you are a MS person than you might be on the chopping block, probably same for SP or CE, since many of these jobs are now contracted out.

    Have to ask why isn't the Army having these issues also? The economy is bad all around, this would lead most people to believe that a paycheck is the prime motivator to stay. If it isn't and it is morale, that begs a different question. Why is the morale so low that their members are willing to leave. Yes, I know multiple rotations in the sandbox add up, but the reality is something the Army forgets to acknowledge, the AF has never left the Sandbox, we have been there since 1990, 20 yrs, not 9. We do 6 mos rotations every 18 mos, in other words 3 yr assignment, 1 will be in the sandbox, with 1 yr remotes thrown in for good measure.

    Forgot to say, so people don't think I am slamming the Army, could it also be they did their bulimic purge a few yrs back and now they need Company grade to correct the Field to Company ratio?

    People who are new to the military do not realize, that there is a % of Flag to Field, Field to Company, Officers to Enlisted. The percentages are mandated, they are not willy nilly, i.e. FY10 we will have 80% enlisted, 20% Officers, FY 11 we will have 60% enlisted, 40% officers. Same is true for the amount of company, field and flag. Ever wonder why it takes a yr or so to pin on O4, it is because they need Field (O4-6) to be promoted or retire. They can't promote until the numbers work out. Why do SERBs exist, so they can promote O4 and 5's. Why do OCS numbers change yrly, because they are backfilling SA and ROTC numbers...i.e. 1300 enter in 10, 1300 graduate, they only wanted/needed 1300 guess what that means to OCS...they don't need you and won't be accepting bulk requests.

    The military is like any other business, it has a strategic plan. They will constantly address their plan and rejig it to obtain their goals.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2010
  7. Eagle 1

    Eagle 1 Member

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    Wow, that actually made me laugh too.

    Anyway, I've got a question. Say down the line I'm an officer in the Air Force, they do a RIF and ask me to leave. Is it possible to transfer to another branch?
     
  8. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    That would depend if all of the branches are doing a RIF or just the branch you are in. I will say this typically it is not wise to transfer because if you look at it logically, you are behind the power curve regarding promotions. We knew 3 people that transferred from the Navy to the AF, 2 of them did not get promoted past Major. They had jobs that would have been seen as filling the right squares for the Navy, but because they came in at the 8 yr marker for the AF they were the new kid on the block and that slowed them down filling the right squares for the AF.

    It is doable, but hard. Besides, don't wrap yourself up in the WHAT IFs. If you do you will find yourself spinning in circles and ruining your own career.
     
  9. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    There are not going to be a lot of people screaming like Horshack from Welcome Back Mr. Kotter...PICK ME PICK ME!

    Uh, Pima...

    Remember where you're typing this... :confused:

    MOST of the audience here is now :confused1:

    That reference is a BIT dated for them...sorta like either of us looking over our shoulder on a dark street when meeting a guy named Kolchak. :yikes:

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  10. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    C'mon Steve you know they all just googled it and were shocked to see John Travolta 70 lbs thinner!
     
  11. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    "...Yeah...."

    "....Who?"

    :yllol:

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  12. BeatNavy

    BeatNavy USMA Cadet

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    The army actually has a surplus of Company grade officers, but has a sizable deficit at the 0-4 level, and a deficit that was much worse a few years ago. That is why they have tried to offer career incentive programs to USMA graduates to increase their retention rate. The graph on pg 10 of this powerpoint brief I ran across a couple of days ago has a graph of the required strength and current strength of officers at each commissioning year.

    http://career-satisfaction.usma.edu/slides/ADSO_Programs/yg2010-usma-incentive-program-brief.pdf
     
  13. Just_A_Mom

    Just_A_Mom Member

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    Well, I know one who would laugh if read this. Wants to Cross commission, had both the blessing of the AF and Army and the AF will pay $10,000 to do so.
    Just wondering if there were others.

    BeatNavy - yep - the Army has a serious O-4 shortage. They still have ADSO in effect to increase retention. I have not heard that will be eliminated.
    A lof of that may have to do with how things go in Afghanistan.
     
  14. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    Army is rolling O-3 into O-4s at an "alarming rate".

    Want to get a quick promotion? Join the Army right now.
     
  15. Just_A_Mom

    Just_A_Mom Member

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    Or join a couple of years ago.
    A couple of years ago 1LTs were making Captain in record time. The attrition rate was so high from the war - they lost alot of jr officers and that cut a serious dent into O-4's.
    However - in 4-6 years the outlook could be completely different.
     
  16. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    They're making O-3 in 3 years....I can't think of another service with promotions that fast.
     
  17. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    The one thing to realize is that for the AF, O-2/O-3 have never sped up in promotion. I do know from our Army friends that O-3 is more like our O-4 board, it moves and there are some who do not make O-3. In the AF keep your nose clean (no DUIs, no desk drawer Article 15s) and on your DOR you will make O-4. The promotion rate is @95% from 2 to 3. O-3 is like O-2 congrats you survived 4 yrs AD here are your railroad track bars.

    I am not sure why you would speed up O3 promotions because the ratio is not O1 to O2 to O3 it is O1/2/3 to O4/5/6 to O7/8/9/10. The only sense I could see for speeding up an O3 board would mean to accept the pin on they incur another time commitment. If you do it at 3, then they will be required to stay until 6 and maybe they are hoping at the 3 yr marker they are not thinking about leaving yet or that they are willing to stay 1 more yr (6 instead of 5), compared to at 4 where they would have to stay until 7 and not be able to leave at 5.
     
  18. Just_A_Mom

    Just_A_Mom Member

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    LITS -
    Yep, that's what happens when you go to war.

    PIMA - it's because of supply and demand. And a reward for risking your life. Simple as that. In the Army Captain's lead a company, when they expanded the army and created more companies, more captains were needed. By 2007 or 2008 many were 5 and diving because they had been to WAR twice already and their buddies were getting killed. With a mass exodus there are opportunities for promotion.

    One of my kids graduated from college in 2005. Her ROTC friends who were commissioned then had made O-3 three years after college graduation. May of 2008 they were Captains. After commissioning they went to BOLC then Ranger school then deployed as a 1LT. Made Captain - someone needed to lead the companies over there - while in combat. You fight and don't get killed, you get promoted. They would come back as a Captain then do their captains course and go back as a Captain.

    This doesn't happen in peacetime. Eisenhower was a major for something like 10 years - between wars.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2010
  19. Just_A_Mom

    Just_A_Mom Member

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    NO they don't.
     
  20. LineInTheSand

    LineInTheSand USCGA 2006

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    Interesting, the captains and majors who were talking about it didn't see it that way...especially with retention as it is.... Every other service is at war, and retention has remained high with those services as well...

    O-4 promotion rates for the Army as hot now too.
     

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