What can I do to become a Pilot?

Stealth,

Did I read those stats correct....311 out of 500 winged? That is almost a 60% rate, way below the 75% that I have always read.

I know many AFA grads get ED with a UPT follow on, are those cadets in the 500 number? If so, let's assume 100 went ED, thus it would be @ 75%.

Thanks raimius,...I fixed it to graduate.
 
Pima said:
Stealth,

Did I read those stats correct....311 out of 500 winged? That is almost a 60% rate, way below the 75% that I have always read.

I know many AFA grads get ED with a UPT follow on, are those cadets in the 500 number? If so, let's assume 100 went ED, thus it would be @ 75%.

Thanks raimius,...I fixed it to graduate.
Click to expand...

I just pass on the numbers that I am given. I can't say exactly what that is all including or how many are still in UPT. The 500 pilot slots at graduation do include all of the ones going to grad school first, so that number will be winging later. One of our son's friends just finished his masters and is now at Laughlin. I have no idea what the total number of people is with pilot slots who went to grad school first, but I don't think it is anywhere near 100. Those students will add to the total in the future. There are also some like son's former roomie who were pushed back for medical/dental reasons.

Stealth_81
 
Actually Stealth, I just realized that I did my math wrong.

If you take 500 multiply by @80% for IFS that would be @400 going on to UPT. Multiply that 400 by 75-80% and that would leave you with @311.

It will be interesting to see the 2012 numbers because of IFS now being waived. I also wonder how the waiving of IFS for 12 grads on; how it will slow down the pipeline at UPT.

I.E. If 1000 go to UPT (AFA, AFROTC and OCS), assume 15% have a PPL, that is 150 coming on line sooner than anticipated, which spread across the board between all of the UPT bases, that is basically 1 full class per yr.

Or maybe it already started with our DS's class because he started with 30, and your DS started with 25. I am not sure because at our DS's IFS he also had 30, and his yr. group was also a large UPT class size for slots.
~~~~ AF knowing in 5 yrs of the impending the pilot shortage.

Flipside, if the waiver is a cause of the slowdown in the pipeline it explains why the AFA 14 class has been informed that they don't have enough pilot slots for all of the cadets that are requesting UPT.

Typical AF life, once you think you get it, they throw you for a loop, and now you are left trying to figure out their rhyme or reason.

Off topic, but on topic at the same time. The sequestration furloughs have impacted UPT, at least at Laughlin. Our DS's class may be washing back about 25% of his class, not because the students are having flying issues, but due to the fact that air traffic controllers were also furloughed.
~~~ They had to split the class in 1/2 during the formation and instrument portion. 1/2 went formation, the other 1/2 went instrument, than they switched. Xcountry flights was the main reason given for the split. Unfortunately, it hasn't helped and now students are coming up for track night are short on flights, thus will be washed back to the next class.

Who knows how that will impact the drop for 14-08 and 14-09. If the AF drops the normal 6-8, but right now 8 are on the fence for wash back side, that means there is close to a 40% chance of getting a fighter for 14-08. It will also take 14-09 to a larger class size by 25%, and if the AF does not correct the drop number; keeping it at 6-8, that means 14-09 at Laughlin will have @15-20% going T 38's.

Will find out soon enough how it pans out, but the point is like always in the military....timing is everything.
 
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Thanks everyone for the contributions! Of course I realize that trying to figure out the percentage is not an exact science and will vary year-to-year, class-to-class and by the current (moving target) needs of the AF. In the immortal words of Pima: "..the point is like always in the military....timing is everything".

Without knowing how many AFROTC officers are able to skip IFS maybe we can just "assume" 100% of those receiving a rated slot from USAFA will attend IFS. If you are reviewing this thread and already have your PPL and the AF is still allowing officers with PPLs to skip IFS then you can ignore that drop rate.

Projected for my son's class (USAFA 2015):
12,732 applicants
1372 offers of admission (10.7% of applicant pool)
1137 admitted (9% of applicant pool)
852 Graduate/Commission (projected @ 75%)
426 rated slots (projected @ 50%)
340 pass IFS (projected @ 80%)
273 wing - pass UPT (projected @ 80%)

Just an FYI for anyone interested in attending USAFA and earning their wings:
An applicant who applied in 2010 for the class of 2015 has a 2.14% chance of getting their wings and if 1/3rd of those get fighters .7 % (less than 1%) chance of flying a fighter. Long odds....but if you have the dream AND the determination....it's a shot.

On a more positive note: If you graduate from USAFA you have a 32% chance of winging and (@33%) almost an 11% chance for fighters.

Someone might want to check my math for errors or wrong assumptions.
 
aglages said:
Thanks everyone for the contributions! Of course I realize that trying to figure out the percentage is not an exact science and will vary year-to-year, class-to-class and by the current (moving target) needs of the AF. In the immortal words of Pima: "..the point is like always in the military....timing is everything".

Without knowing how many AFROTC officers are able to skip IFS maybe we can just "assume" 100% of those receiving a rated slot from USAFA will attend IFS. If you are reviewing this thread and already have your PPL and the AF is still allowing officers with PPLs to skip IFS then you can ignore that drop rate.

Projected for my son's class (USAFA 2015):
12,732 applicants
1372 offers of admission (10.7% of applicant pool)
1137 admitted (9% of applicant pool)
852 Graduate/Commission (projected @ 75%)
426 rated slots (projected @ 50%)
340 pass IFS (projected @ 80%)
273 wing - pass UPT (projected @ 80%)

Just an FYI for anyone interested in attending USAFA and earning their wings:
An applicant who applied in 2010 for the class of 2015 has a 2.14% chance of getting their wings and if 1/3rd of those get fighters .7 % (less than 1%) chance of flying a fighter. Long odds....but if you have the dream AND the determination....it's a shot.

On a more positive note: If you graduate from USAFA you have a 32% chance of winging and (@33%) almost an 11% chance for fighters.

Someone might want to check my math for errors or wrong assumptions.
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Well the 852 to 426 drop is largly self selected.
Pretty big assumption that all 12,732 applicants want to be fighter pilots, but hey, its possible.:biggrin:
 
Pima said:
Flipside, if the waiver is a cause of the slowdown in the pipeline it explains why the AFA 14 class has been informed that they don't have enough pilot slots for all of the cadets that are requesting UPT.
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Supposedly some 2014 cadets have been told that after the EDs and non PQ cadets are removed from the mix that there will be enough rated slots for those interested. This is from 2014 parents and the always reliable "rumor mill" at USAFA.

BTW - the current class size for 2014 is 1035 (as of 31 Jul). Very few Firsties leave so if 50% of the graduating class applies for a pilot AFSC the AF will need about 500 slots if everyone that wants one is selected.
 
Packer said:
Well the 852 to 426 drop is largly self selected.
Click to expand...
An assumption could be made that quite a few of those drops are "self selected". How about a USAFA applicant actually finishing their application and trying to become a viable candidate? That would help improve their odds. And once in....how about working hard and graduating? Just those three.....complete your application, graduate and selecting pilot would increase an applicants odds. Of course it does sound easier than it actually is...:cool:
 
aglages said:
An assumption could be made that quite a few of those drops are "self selected". How about a USAFA applicant actually finishing their application and trying to become a viable candidate? That would help improve their odds. And once in....how about working hard and graduating? Just those three.....complete your application, graduate and selecting pilot would increase an applicants odds. Of course it does sound easier than it actually is...:cool:
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Your not implying that the USAFA counts all of those started applications as applicants like one of the other academies are you?:eek: Say it ain't so!
 
Packer said:
Your not implying that the USAFA counts all of those started applications as applicants like one of the other academies are you?:eek: Say it ain't so!
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I thought ALL the other SAs AND the civilian colleges counted all started applications as applicants in their quest to demonstrate how discerning they are with admissions. Perhaps I'm wrong......again.
 
I am not sure if this thread belongs off topic anymore because now it is really more about life after.

I also think that these last pages have been insanely informational to future AFA/AFROTC cadets.

Using all of the stats given, it is a true wake up call, not only for fighters, but heavies too.

55 of that initial pool of 12,732 for AFA will get fighters. Regardless how many want to go rated, in this case, Cannonball does want rated, and fighters. That is the point they need to see.

1st hurdle; apptmt. which is 10% chance.
2nd hurdle; commission out of the AFA, which is a 75% chance.
3rd hurdle if he does not have a PPL, which is IFS. Another 80
% chance.
The 4th hurdle is tracking.
The 5th hurdle is winging.
The 6th hurdle is FTU
The 7th hurdle is MQ
The 8th hurdle is PROMOTION to Field Grade O4
The 9th hurdle is PROMOTION to O5.

No promotion to O4, you are gone. No promotion to O5, you will retire with 50% retirement at an O4 rank, and airlines typically aren't going to be jumping to pick you up.

Like I said to Cannonball, commercial airlines is hurdle number 10. Don't clear 1-9, the fat lady is singing her aria.

I hope Cannonball has not left the building due to his belief of the SAF Mafia, but if he did, at least he helped other AF hopefuls that want to fly.

If he is still lurking, I hope he sees why I posted what I posted. It was not personal, it was not derogatory towards his dream, it was reality regarding what to expect regarding his dream.

Another Pima ism...rarely does theory and reality ever meet. All you can do is believe in yourself and fate. That is an AF wife speaking.
My Sister In Laws once asked me over a holiday dinner, how I cope with him flying fighters in combat.
~ My answer:
Simple if it is his fate to die on X day, he will die, even if I locked him in a closet and tried to keep him safe, he will still die. That is our fate/destiny.
 
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Hurdle 1 for the kid is lose the attitude. But that could always be corrected the first summer too (although some keep the attitude for a career... which is always interesting).
 
aglages said:
I thought ALL the other SAs AND the civilian colleges counted all started applications as applicants in their quest to demonstrate how discerning they are with admissions. Perhaps I'm wrong......again.
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I don't think you are wrong but I could be wrong.
 
aglages said:
I thought ALL the other SAs AND the civilian colleges counted all started applications as applicants in their quest to demonstrate how discerning they are with admissions. Perhaps I'm wrong......again.
Click to expand...

Don't forget at least half of civilian colleges charge application fees, so I believe civilian college applicants number more accurate than SA numbers. I am assuming unless you submit payment, the application won't be accepted.

Not looking forward to help my children with their college application . . .
 
MemberLG said:
..I believe civilian college applicants number more accurate than SA numbers. I am assuming unless you submit payment, the application won't be accepted.
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I would assume that the half of civilian colleges that charge application fees...count all started applications in their application number but don't process/board those that do not include the application fee. Why should they "hurt" their eliteness because of a minor detail like no payment?
 
aglages said:
Just an FYI for anyone interested in attending USAFA and earning their wings:
An applicant who applied in 2010 for the class of 2015 has a 2.14% chance of getting their wings and if 1/3rd of those get fighters .7 % (less than 1%) chance of flying a fighter.
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Sorry to quote myself :redface: but...
An applicant to USAFA in 2010 for the class of 2015 probably had a better chance than 2.14% of getting their wings. That 2.14% is only the possible chances of graduating from USAFA and getting winged. Most of those 12,732 applicants probably also applied for an AFROTC scholarship....and possibly other scholarships from other ROTC programs and Appointments to other SAs. Don't forget the ones that have joined various ROTC programs without scholarships and are still on track to fly for the Navy, Marines, Army or Air Force.

Bottom line....if you have the dream and determination don't let the stats dissuade you. Somebody WILL get those pilot slots.....it might as well be you.

Good Luck!:thumb:
 
aglages said:
Sorry to quote myself :redface: but...
An applicant to USAFA in 2010 for the class of 2015 probably had a better chance than 2.14% of getting their wings. That 2.14% is only the possible chances of graduating from USAFA and getting winged. Most of those 12,732 applicants probably also applied for an AFROTC scholarship....and possibly other scholarships from other ROTC programs and Appointments to other SAs. Don't forget the ones that have joined various ROTC programs without scholarships and are still on track to fly for the Navy, Marines, Army or Air Force.

Bottom line....if you have the dream and determination don't let the stats dissuade you. Somebody WILL get those pilot slots.....it might as well be you.

Good Luck!:thumb:
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Absolutely true, Aglages. Someone will get to fill those seats in Air Force airframes. My son is proof that the dream can come true. Today he is scheduled to do his first air refueling sortie in the F-16. I can't help but thing how cool it would be if Flieger was flying the KC-135 that he gets fuel from!

Stealth_81
 
aglages said:
Sorry to quote myself :redface: but...
An applicant to USAFA in 2010 for the class of 2015 probably had a better chance than 2.14% of getting their wings. That 2.14% is only the possible chances of graduating from USAFA and getting winged. Most of those 12,732 applicants probably also applied for an AFROTC scholarship....and possibly other scholarships from other ROTC programs and Appointments to other SAs. Don't forget the ones that have joined various ROTC programs without scholarships and are still on track to fly for the Navy, Marines, Army or Air Force.

Bottom line....if you have the dream and determination don't let the stats dissuade you. Somebody WILL get those pilot slots.....it might as well be you.

Good Luck!:thumb:
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We are also using all unconditioned probabilities and this method only works if you choose a completely random applicant. If they satisfy that marker, their probably jumps by 10x - or 21.4%. But then, that's a random choice. If you condition on them WANTING a pilot slot: P(getting | wanted ) [read as probability of getting a pilot slot given they wanted it] then the probability goes up more. (Bayesian Statistics).

P(G|W)=P(W|G)*P(G)/P(W) = prob they wanted it given they got it (probably really high) times the probability they got it divided by the probability they wanted it. Let's assume P(W|G)=95%, P(G)=50%, P(W)=50%.

Then P(G|W) = P(W|G)=~95%.

So, IF you get in and want a pilot slot, then you have whatever the likelihood is that you will get pilot given that you wanted it which is usually very high. Can add medical into this and consider that as well. And again, that's a random person, add in the fact that if you're in the top 75% of the class, that would close in on 99%.

I can start moving further into the winging and tracks, but (assuming I remember my stats right) the probabilities are not as low as you would think once you account for characteristics instead of treating it like a random variable.
 
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