USNA Class of 2027 Waiting and Speculating

Capt MJ · Feb 20, 2023

Kentucky9 said:
Low hanging fruit? My son currently is medically disqualified, but he’s anything but low hanging fruit. With so many variables, I guess a lot of things beyond his control could designate him as “low hanging fruit.” He will as he always has control what he can…onward upward.

The challenges of internet communications without benefit of eye contact, body language or vocal tone... The intent was to indicate the SAs, in the professionally kind interest of allowing candidates to pursue other paths sooner rather than later, if it is clear due to things such as “clearcut CFA failure or non-waivered medical,” (non-waivered intentionally chosen), that they will not be offered an appointment for this cycle, and will endeavor to let these candidates know their decision.

Your son is still very much in the hunt, if he is med DQ and the waiver process is in play.

I consider all fruit equal on the SA candidate trees and respect their desire to serve. My analogy was to simply show the SAs do their best, when they know they are finally closing a door on a candidate, to let them know as soon as practicable.

Capt MJ · Feb 20, 2023

A1Janitor said:
Capt MJ is not only one of the best resources on this site imo, she is also one of the most compassionate people I have interacted with. She meant no offense.

Low hanging fruit, by definition, is “the obvious or easy things that can be most readily done or dealt with in achieving success or making progress toward an objective.”

In this regard, she is simply saying that the rejections that come earlier are the ones that can be rejected because the candidate isn’t 3Q. Medical is the most obvious.

Regardless of rejection, many candidates that get rejected are awesome humans, great students, and have bright futures ahead of them. Your son I am sure fits this.

Best of luck on a waiver, or plan b.

I appreciate your kind comments. That was exactly my intent in using this term.

Alchemist · Feb 20, 2023

"Regardless of rejection, many candidates that get rejected are awesome humans, great students, and have bright futures ahead of them."

Also, many candidates get rejected and then accepted on their second attempt.

justdoit19 · Feb 20, 2023

Kentucky9 said:
Low hanging fruit? My son currently is medically disqualified, but he’s anything but low hanging fruit. With so many variables, I guess a lot of things beyond his control could designate him as “low hanging fruit.” He will as he always has control what he can…onward upward

She specifically said CFA and medical. And yes, those would be considered “low hanging fruit”.

It’s not speaking to a persons persona, intelligence, etc. It is a competition, and we are arriving at that point in the process, when those that will not be appointed will begin to be notified. The least competitive as far as 3Q will be released. There are people, who won’t be appointed this year. Someone with a bad CFA, or ones where a waiver won’t be pursued, are most obvious to go. Low hanging fruit.

Again, even with a medical challenge for example, it’s not a reflection of the applicant. It’s a statement on the admissions appointment process. And that’s the stage we are entering in the process. And why EVERYONE needs SOLID backup plans.

EDIT: what everyone else already said…..didn’t have my page refreshed.

17racer · Feb 20, 2023

Is there any anecdotal evidence or data to suggest that the admissions process likes to handle the more competitive districts first and save the less competitive districts for later? I notice a pattern of more populated districts getting more appointments earlier, but maybe I am just seeing patterns where there are none.

VAcadetmom · Feb 20, 2023

17racer said:
Is there any anecdotal evidence or data to suggest that the admissions process likes to handle the more competitive districts first and save the less competitive districts for later? I notice a pattern of more populated districts getting more appointments earlier, but maybe I am just seeing patterns where there are none.

I don't think there is any specific pattern. In our high school, which is in a very competitive district wih a lot of applicants, none of the students I know were notified until April except one recruited athelete. I always thought it was because admissions wanted to make sure they had all of the applications in for the specific MOC slate, even if some of the applicants submitted very early. Eventually everyone will know, and the waiting is the hardest part.

A1Janitor · Feb 20, 2023

17racer said:
Is there any anecdotal evidence or data to suggest that the admissions process likes to handle the more competitive districts first and save the less competitive districts for later? I notice a pattern of more populated districts getting more appointments earlier, but maybe I am just seeing patterns where there are none.

I would argue the more competitive districts could take more time to fit the puzzle pieces in. But that is just my intuition - that tends to be wrong.

It also is related to waivers, timing of applications, nominations, etc.

Coffee22 · Feb 20, 2023

17racer said:
Is there any anecdotal evidence or data to suggest that the admissions process likes to handle the more competitive districts first and save the less competitive districts for later? I notice a pattern of more populated districts getting more appointments earlier, but maybe I am just seeing patterns where there are none.

It's our first rodeo so I don't know the answer to this, but also enjoy looking for patterns or reasoning and greatly appreciate the insight and hindsight offered by the more seasoned members of the forum. Understanding that it doesn't provide insight simply passes the time as DD is growing a bit weary, or maybe that's me. Going CPR in September with the suggestion of more appointments flowing in February gave her (or is it me?) hope of news or progress along around the corner. For some reason, the faucet seems to be dripping even slower this month. Or maybe that's just me also.

From the appointment thread info, this is the current number of appointments by state. Remember, this data is not representative of information from admissions, it only includes those who've shared appts and their state in the 2027 thread:

*The reported to date below only includes appointees who've reported their state.

State	Appts.
California	10
Texas	8
New Jersey	6
Florida	5
Illinois	5
Virginia	5
North Colina	5
Maryland	3
Georgia	2
Louisiana	2
Massachusetts	2
Michigan	2
Ohio	2
Oklahoma	2
Arkansas	1
Kansas	1
Nebraska	1
Nevada	1
New Mexico	1
Pennsylvania	1
South Carolina	1
Utah	1
Wisconsin	1
Minnesota	1
New Hampshire	1
New York	1
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Maine
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
Reported to Date	71

A1Janitor · Feb 20, 2023

Historically - NY senators wait until the last moment to get their slates in.

Also - principal noms can be settled when the nominee is 3q.

Too many variables to figure anything out imo.

Alchemist · Feb 20, 2023

Coffee22 said:
It's our first rodeo so I don't know the answer to this, but also enjoy looking for patterns or reasoning and greatly appreciate the insight and hindsight offered by the more seasoned members of the forum. Understanding that it doesn't provide insight simply passes the time as DD is growing a bit weary, or maybe that's me. Going CPR in September with the suggestion of more appointments flowing in February gave her (or is it me?) hope of news or progress along around the corner. For some reason, the faucet seems to be dripping even slower this month. Or maybe that's just me also.

From the appointment thread info, this is the current number of appointments by state. Remember, this data is not representative of information from admissions, it only includes those who've shared appts and their state in the 2027 thread:

*The reported to date below only includes appointees who've reported their state.

State Appts.
California 10
Texas 8
New Jersey 6
Florida 5
Illinois 5
Virginia 5
North Colina 5
Maryland 3
Georgia 2
Louisiana 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 2
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 2
Arkansas 1
Kansas 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 1
New Mexico 1
Pennsylvania 1
South Carolina 1
Utah 1
Wisconsin 1
Minnesota 1
New Hampshire 1
New York 1
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Maine
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
Reported to Date 71

looks like the most populated states are at the top, so far. plus some did not indicate their state in the forum.

Alchemist · Feb 20, 2023

here are the population counts for states

Rank	State	Population
1	California	39,538,223
2	Texas	29,145,505
3	Florida	21,538,187
4	New York	20,201,249
5	Pennsylvania	13,002,700
6	Illinois	12,812,508
7	Ohio	11,799,448
8	Georgia	10,711,908
9	North Carolina	10,439,388
10	Michigan	10,077,331
11	New Jersey	9,288,994
12	Virginia	8,631,393
13	Washington	7,705,281
14	Arizona	7,151,502
15	Massachusetts	7,029,917
16	Tennessee	6,910,840
17	Indiana	6,785,528
18	Maryland	6,177,224
19	Missouri	6,154,913
20	Wisconsin	5,893,718
21	Colorado	5,773,714
22	Minnesota	5,706,494
23	South Carolina	5,118,425
24	Alabama	5,024,279
25	Louisiana	4,657,757
26	Kentucky	4,505,836
27	Oregon	4,237,256
28	Oklahoma	3,959,353
29	Connecticut	3,605,944
30	Utah	3,271,616
31	Iowa	3,190,369
32	Nevada	3,104,614
33	Arkansas	3,011,524
34	Mississippi	2,961,279
35	Kansas	2,937,880
36	New Mexico	2,117,522
37	Nebraska	1,961,504
38	Idaho	1,839,106
39	West Virginia	1,793,716
40	Hawaii	1,455,271
41	New Hampshire	1,377,529
42	Maine	1,362,359
43	Rhode Island	1,097,379
44	Montana	1,084,225
45	Delaware	989,948
46	South Dakota	886,667
47	North Dakota	779,094
48	Alaska	733,391
49	Vermont	643,077
50	Wyoming	576,851

bubblehead#22 · Feb 20, 2023

Anotherhopefulmomma said:
Hello! yes she did! How are you holding up with this waiting?

Hi! I hope you guys are well. We’re holding up ok. The waiting is tough but understandable. Our son is at least all set with plan B so that helps in dealing with waiting game. Here’s to both of us getting some good news in the near future….

17racer · Feb 20, 2023

Alchemist said:
here are the population counts for states

Rank State Population
1 California 39,538,223
2 Texas 29,145,505
3 Florida 21,538,187
4 New York 20,201,249
5 Pennsylvania 13,002,700
6 Illinois 12,812,508
7 Ohio 11,799,448
8 Georgia 10,711,908
9 North Carolina 10,439,388
10 Michigan 10,077,331
11 New Jersey 9,288,994
12 Virginia 8,631,393
13 Washington 7,705,281
14 Arizona 7,151,502
15 Massachusetts 7,029,917
16 Tennessee 6,910,840
17 Indiana 6,785,528
18 Maryland 6,177,224
19 Missouri 6,154,913
20 Wisconsin 5,893,718
21 Colorado 5,773,714
22 Minnesota 5,706,494
23 South Carolina 5,118,425
24 Alabama 5,024,279
25 Louisiana 4,657,757
26 Kentucky 4,505,836
27 Oregon 4,237,256
28 Oklahoma 3,959,353
29 Connecticut 3,605,944
30 Utah 3,271,616
31 Iowa 3,190,369
32 Nevada 3,104,614
33 Arkansas 3,011,524
34 Mississippi 2,961,279
35 Kansas 2,937,880
36 New Mexico 2,117,522
37 Nebraska 1,961,504
38 Idaho 1,839,106
39 West Virginia 1,793,716
40 Hawaii 1,455,271
41 New Hampshire 1,377,529
42 Maine 1,362,359
43 Rhode Island 1,097,379
44 Montana 1,084,225
45 Delaware 989,948
46 South Dakota 886,667
47 North Dakota 779,094
48 Alaska 733,391
49 Vermont 643,077
50 Wyoming 576,851

I was just about to sit down and do the same spreadsheet analysis. Thank you for saving me the trouble.

I have been over these numbers and other data sets more times than I can count and more frequently than I would like to admit. I've looked for patterns and clues everywhere. Haven't found anything credible yet.

My conclusion: The more I look into it, the less I understand. This is the Gom Jabbar (Dune) of application processes. Only thing I'm sure of is whatever is in the box really hurts.

Coffee22 · Feb 20, 2023

Rank	State	Population	Appointments
1	California	39,538,223	10
2	Texas	29,145,505	8
3	Florida	21,538,187	5
4	New York	20,201,249	1
5	Pennsylvania	13,002,700	1
6	Illinois	12,812,508	5
7	Ohio	11,799,448	2
8	Georgia	10,711,908	2
9	North Carolina	10,439,388	5
10	Michigan	10,077,331	2
11	New Jersey	9,288,994	6
12	Virginia	8,631,393	5
13	Washington	7,705,281
14	Arizona	7,151,502
15	Massachusetts	7,029,917	2
16	Tennessee	6,910,840
17	Indiana	6,785,528
18	Maryland	6,177,224	3
19	Missouri	6,154,913
20	Wisconsin	5,893,718	1
21	Colorado	5,773,714
22	Minnesota	5,706,494	1
23	South Carolina	5,118,425	1
24	Alabama	5,024,279
25	Louisiana	4,657,757	2
26	Kentucky	4,505,836
27	Oregon	4,237,256
28	Oklahoma	3,959,353	2
29	Connecticut	3,605,944
30	Utah	3,271,616	1
31	Iowa	3,190,369
32	Nevada	3,104,614	1
33	Arkansas	3,011,524	1
34	Mississippi	2,961,279
35	Kansas	2,937,880	1
36	New Mexico	2,117,522	1
37	Nebraska	1,961,504	1
38	Idaho	1,839,106
39	West Virginia	1,793,716
40	Hawaii	1,455,271
41	New Hampshire	1,377,529	1
42	Maine	1,362,359
43	Rhode Island	1,097,379
44	Montana	1,084,225
45	Delaware	989,948
46	South Dakota	886,667
47	North Dakota	779,094
48	Alaska	733,391
49	Vermont	643,077
50	Wyoming	576,851

Coffee22 · Feb 20, 2023

Thanks to Alchemist for the population data, I updated the spreadsheet above. It sure is a useless endeavor, but it passes the time

Capt MJ · Feb 20, 2023

The appointments posted on SAF are really a tiny data slice of a set, subject to whoever lands here and posts. Historically, by the END of the cycle, about 10-15% of a class might be captured - but percentages now mean nothing as any kind of indicator of how many may have been given out.

For all we know there are entire Districts out there blissfully unaware of their solemn duty to seek out SAF and post their offer of appointment.

You should all go to the cocktail thread and do some in-depth analysis there. Said with warmth and compassion.

Coffee22 · Feb 20, 2023

Capt MJ said:
The appointments posted on SAF are really a tiny data slice of a set, subject to whoever lands here and posts. Historically, by the END of the cycle, about 10-15% of a class might be captured - but percentages now mean nothing as any kind of indicator of how many may have been given out.

For all we know there are entire Districts out there blissfully unaware of their solemn duty to seek out SAF and post their offer of appointment.

You should all go to the cocktail thread and do some in-depth analysis there. Said with warmth and compassion.

Sage advice and insight, per usual Capt MJ. Off to listen to a few more Lucy Thomas performances. Thank you for the great recommendation.

Alchemist · Feb 20, 2023

Coffee22 said:
Thanks to Alchemist for the population data, I updated the spreadsheet above. It sure is a useless endeavor, but it passes the time

Nice fusion of the two datasets. Alas, I agree with CaptMJ and others that looking for trends and patterns is like being lost in the desert and seeing mirages of glistening pools of water only to end up with a mouthful of sand.

GrayMom · Feb 21, 2023

My son received his appointment to NAPs this morning. He's excited!

Lkt · Feb 21, 2023

Coffee22 said:
It's our first rodeo so I don't know the answer to this, but also enjoy looking for patterns or reasoning and greatly appreciate the insight and hindsight offered by the more seasoned members of the forum. Understanding that it doesn't provide insight simply passes the time as DD is growing a bit weary, or maybe that's me. Going CPR in September with the suggestion of more appointments flowing in February gave her (or is it me?) hope of news or progress along around the corner. For some reason, the faucet seems to be dripping even slower this month. Or maybe that's just me also.

From the appointment thread info, this is the current number of appointments by state. Remember, this data is not representative of information from admissions, it only includes those who've shared appts and their state in the 2027 thread:

*The reported to date below only includes appointees who've reported their state.

State Appts.
California 10
Texas 8
New Jersey 6
Florida 5
Illinois 5
Virginia 5
North Colina 5
Maryland 3
Georgia 2
Louisiana 2
Massachusetts 2
Michigan 2
Ohio 2
Oklahoma 2
Arkansas 1
Kansas 1
Nebraska 1
Nevada 1
New Mexico 1
Pennsylvania 1
South Carolina 1
Utah 1
Wisconsin 1
Minnesota 1
New Hampshire 1
New York 1
Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Hawaii
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kentucky
Maine
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
South Dakota
Tennessee
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wyoming
Reported to Date 71

Thanks for doing this so professionally! I scribbled the same thing yesterday in my “Get Stuff Done” book. I also thought I was a bit nuts for doing it but it seemed to put my mind at ease. My mind is now more at ease that y’all are doing it too (and doing a better job as well)! I think this has been the hardest for my son and the family. Not knowing is just hard! He wants to start the rest of his life and is so excited about it and really is in a standstill until he knows; just going through the motions. Luckily he’s done his NROTC for plan B and is keeping up with everything! Anyone have any tips for making it easier. I just keep ticking the days

! Thank you for listening and for this forum and all the good folks posting to it! Good luck to you all and I hope to meet you and your amazing children on I-Day 2027!!!

USNA Class of 2027 Waiting and Speculating

Capt MJ

Serviam.

Capt MJ

Serviam.

Alchemist

Member

justdoit19

Proud parent of an ANG, USNA X2, and a MidSib

17racer

Member

VAcadetmom

Member

A1Janitor

Coffee22

Member

A1Janitor

Alchemist

Member

Alchemist

Member

bubblehead#22

Member

17racer

Member

Coffee22

Member

Coffee22

Member

Capt MJ

Serviam.

Coffee22

Member

Alchemist

Member

GrayMom

New Member

Lkt

Member