Discussion in 'OTS/OCS/PLC' started by sheriff3, Sep 14, 2015.
The article also had a little tidbit that should really be noted.
That is huge because currently there is talk of another govt shutdown due to the funding of planned parenthood.
There has already been an uptick at least for the rated OCS board. In the article they are talking about the non-rated, which would not be hard to double. For several years it had been a 50/50 shot if they were even going to hold the 2nd board. I don't know if they did last year, but if they didn't than the doubling would just be simple math that this year they will hold both boards.
The break down of numbers is @500 will come from the OCS increase for FY16. This means they will come on line for FY17. What is interesting about this fact is that this was the year that AFROTC cut big time for SFT with a 58% overall selection rate. If memory serves me correctly not only was the % lower than the year prior, but so was the actual amount by about 200. This is the year group that they also required for the 1st time to sign on saying if they would go rated. The non-tech/non-rated selection rate was 17%.
Now, if you place all of this together, specifically their target group is non-rated OCS board, and the decrease for POCs in AFROTC, it only makes sense that they need to increase OCS to get back to their manpower needs.
The other thing that is interesting is in 2014 (commissioning) they were asking volunteers to opt out and go Guard or Reserve. 1st time in decades that this occurred for AFROTC. It appears now they are saying: Whoops, maybe that was a mistake! They are now saying to the Guard and Reserve that they will create a path for them if they want to convert to ADAF.
I am not making like of the disease, bulimia, but I have always seen the military when it comes to manpower binge and purge. They up their numbers for certain year groups or career fields and somewhere later down the road they purge, but they purge so hard that they now need to binge again.
~ I get it, part is not in their control. They cannot control when a conflict like Enduring Freedom occurs. They cannot control when the economy turns south like it did in 08. The AF cannot control when the airlines start hiring again, such as now after 15 years of hiring freezes. Nor did they see sequestration occurring.
My point is that without the stop/release valve that we call OCS, the AF would be in trouble. They need this available when 2 years ago after cutting AFROTC so hard, 4 years ago when they awarded appointments to USAFA and did not see it coming to get back on target for the year group.
For me, I will make my decision regarding the growth comment, if it is just a targeted year group, or overall when 2 things occur.
1. Selection rate for AFROTC SFT, especially non/tech.
~ These would be the peers of those selected FY17 since typically there is a wait time before attending OCS. Right now the article is only saying FY16.
2. Appointment rate/number for USAFA.
~ USAFA has held tight from the glory days of 1650 appointments to 1300-1350 for at least 5-6 years, maybe 7. The expectation was 1100-1150 would report and keep them right around the 4000 marker.
~~ Prior to that they were known to max out at the 4400 marker.
Secondly, if the SFT rate/number for AFROTC and USAFA don't increase, than my question would be:
~ Is Big Blue deciding that from a budget reason due to sequestration this is how to save costs while maintaining the numbers for Officers. It is cheaper to send them through OCS than AFROTC, even non-scholarship. SFT is not cheap when 2000 cadets must be flown in from around the country and paid for 28 days. Nor is it cheap when they become a POC regarding their monthly stipend for almost 2 years.
Just my thoughts.
1. I am happy to see that they are now using the EPR system like the OPR for promotion rates.
2. I laughed at the idea that they think they will have many takers when asking those that were cut to now return. Guess they didn't get the note that the employment rate has dropped! Yes, some will jump on it, but chances are the majority of them that found good paying jobs will not want to come back unless there is some really nice financial enticement.
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