Appointment Speculation

H

Heat_Miser

Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2021
Messages
72
A recent thread has been speculating over this, so I tried to average this over the last 6 classes appointment threads.

Over the past 6 years, the average SAF USMA appointment thread has 150 replies. More specifically, in the last 3 years, the average has been 178 responses. Currently for the CO 2026, we are at 110. So we can assume that 62% to 73% of appointments have been offered based on recent statistics.

Class appointment thread replies:
2025-183
2024-178
2023-173
2022-134
2021-123
2020-109

I would assume that the lower end of the 62-73% (probably 60-65%) have been offered because the last 3 years responses to the thread have been way higher.

Please take everything with a grain of salt. These are just very broad assumptions based on the data given.
 
Last edited:
voluntary response and sample bias. Those who do choose to add their information to the appointment list tend to apply early and rank higher academically. They get their decisions back much earlier than the rest. You can't make inferences on data with bias.
 
Last edited:
Read something recently from a RC that 95% of appointments will be offered by the end of March.
 
asd3467 said:
voluntary response and sample bias. Those who do choose to add their information to the appointment list tend to apply early and rank higher academically. They get their decisions back much earlier than the rest. You can't make inferences on data with bias.
Click to expand...
Never said it was a good sample, just bored in study hall and working with what I got lol.
 
Heat_Miser said:
A recent thread has been speculating over this, so I tried to average this over the last 6 classes appointment threads.

Over the past 6 years, the average SAF USMA appointment thread has 150 replies. More specifically, in the last 3 years, the average has been 178 responses. Currently for the CO 2026, we are at 110. So we can assume that 62% to 73% of appointments have been offered based on recent statistics.

Class appointment thread replies:
2025-183
2024-178
2023-173
2022-134
2021-123
2020-109

I would assume that the lower end of the 62-73% (probably 60-65%) have been offered because the last 3 years responses to the thread have been way higher.
Click to expand...
That’s a good assumption, IF you assume there is a proportional relationship as to what is posted vs the unknown number of appointments - a big leap. We can see the iceberg that is floating above water; we cannot see if what is below is larger, smaller or the same in size.
 
Heat Miser, I am working scientist/professor (in my day job...)
Please, do not feed the anxious applicants who have not received an appointment yet.
SAF as a source has huge, huge sample bias.

Too many unknown unknowns for this to be a particularly useful way for you to spend your time.
Buy your boots & low quarters, fill in your eQIP paperwork, and continue working out and finish strong in school this year. Love on your family & friends. They are all going to miss you a lot.
 
DrMom said:
Heat Miser, I am working scientist/professor (in my day job...)
Please, do not feed the anxious applicants who have not received an appointment yet.
SAF as a source has huge, huge sample bias.
Click to expand...
Adding to @DrMom great post: Statistics are only predictive if the sample is fully representative. We have little indication that SAF posters are a representative sample. As they say, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. (I state this humbly, as someone whose day job is not scientist and professor, but merely “teaching professor,” i.e. I neither do research nor am I tenured. 😉)
 
MidCakePa said:
Adding to @DrMom great post: Statistics are only predictive if the sample is fully representative. We have little indication that SAF posters are a representative sample. As they say, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. (I state this humbly, as someone whose day job is not scientist and professor, but merely “teaching professor,” i.e. I neither do research nor am I tenured. 😉)
Click to expand...
MidCakes, what does a 'teaching professor' do? I am sort of the old school tenured full prof who does research, teaching, & service--blah blah blah but 'teaching professor'--that sounds like all the best parts (I mean minus the research which is pretty fab.)
 
DrMom said:
Heat Miser, I am working scientist/professor (in my day job...)
Please, do not feed the anxious applicants who have not received an appointment yet.
SAF as a source has huge, huge sample bias.

Too many unknown unknowns for this to be a particularly useful way for you to spend your time.
Buy your boots & low quarters, fill in your eQIP paperwork, and continue working out and finish strong in school this year. Love on your family & friends. They are all going to miss you a lot.
Click to expand...
You can delete the thread thats my bad.
 
Heat_Miser said:
You can delete the thread thats my bad.
Click to expand...
It is ok. It gives us a great chance to talk about the weakness of the data.
Applicants and their parents freak out every year--wait for it...by the time it is April people who have not heard will be miserable.
I speak from experience as the Baby did not get his BFE (delivered unceremoniously--left on the doorstep in the rain & without any correspondence of any type for months & months) around 24 April. He had already accepted a different one of the Big Three--and was in Europe on a school trip/pilgrimage. (When he left I was like, 'You might hit your knees about West Point while you are in Rome')
Well, it worked. (Worth noting, the Baby is an Old Grad now...so there is that. )
However, as we moved into April of his senior year, while we did not discuss it at home--because we both knew that he had not heard--on the inside, I was like, 'Please just send a TWE already so we can be done with this miserable uncertainty.'

So, for anyone reading this, you will know by 1 May. There is no way to know the outcome until you receive the call, the BFE, the portal update or the TWE.
When we say 'Keep faith'--we mean it.
 
DrMom said:
It is ok. It gives us a great chance to talk about the weakness of the data.
Applicants and their parents freak out every year--wait for it...by the time it is April people who have not heard will be miserable.
I speak from experience as the Baby did not get his BFE (delivered unceremoniously--left on the doorstep in the rain & without any correspondence of any type for months & months) around 24 April. He had already accepted a different one of the Big Three--and was in Europe on a school trip/pilgrimage. (When he left I was like, 'You might hit your knees about West Point while you are in Rome')
Well, it worked. (Worth noting, the Baby is an Old Grad now...so there is that. )
However, as we moved into April of his senior year, while we did not discuss it at home--because we both knew that he had not heard--on the inside, I was like, 'Please just send a TWE already so we can be done with this miserable uncertainty.'

So, for anyone reading this, you will know by 1 May. There is no way to know the outcome until you receive the call, the BFE, the portal update or the TWE.
When we say 'Keep faith'--we mean it.
Click to expand...
Well said, DrMom! While it is hard to wait, that is something that the military does a lot of (hurry up and wait). The time between now and 1 MAY should be spent focusing on completing high school, spending time with family and friends, and completing your March Madness bracket.
 
Tropic Justice said:
Well said, DrMom! While it is hard to wait, that is something that the military does a lot of (hurry up and wait). The time between now and 1 MAY should be spent focusing on completing high school, spending time with family and friends, and completing your March Madness bracket.
Click to expand...
I am all in for Army this year...and every year...followed by Davidson...might just have to skip this March completely.
How many days until football season? Army will beat Coastal Carolina on 3 September--an away game but we will be looking for Cadet Heat Miser in the stands with his company (perhaps wearing the company mascot?) for the first home game against UTSA on 10 September. So much waiting!
 
DrMom said:
MidCakes, what does a 'teaching professor' do? I am sort of the old school tenured full prof who does research, teaching, & service--blah blah blah but 'teaching professor'--that sounds like all the best parts (I mean minus the research which is pretty fab.)
Click to expand...
My wife is like you, an old school tenured professor at a technical university. Then there is me who teaches there as well but for me it is my part-time retirement gig and I enjoy it immensely.
Quite a while ago, I came in and did a couple of guest lectures to her classes that dealt with current stuff that I was involved with in the Aerospace Industry. I also attended events as a faculty spouse and got to meet some of the leadership and eventually was asked to join the school's Board of Advisors to bring an industry perspective/voice to what they were doing. About 5 yrs ago, I retired from my last full time job in industry and a few months later, was approached by a friend on the staff (not my wife) who asked me to start teaching a course there. I've since moved on to a different course in the same department and am still enjoying it a lot. I've met folks in other departments who would like me to teach specific courses - career transition/development type stuff but right now, I'm right where I want to be.
 
DrMom said:
MidCakes, what does a 'teaching professor' do? I am sort of the old school tenured full prof who does research, teaching, & service--blah blah blah but 'teaching professor'--that sounds like all the best parts (I mean minus the research which is pretty fab.)
Click to expand...
I teach a full load, including summer. I’m non-tenure track and have no research obligations, but do have a service obligation. I came with a master’s degree and 20+ years of industry experience. It’s a great gig — challenging yet rewarding!
 
DrMom said:
I am all in for Army this year...and every year...followed by Davidson...might just have to skip this March completely.
How many days until football season? Army will beat Coastal Carolina on 3 September--an away game but we will be looking for Cadet Heat Miser in the stands with his company (perhaps wearing the company mascot?) for the first home game against UTSA on 10 September. So much waiting!
Click to expand...

@DrMom My eldest is at Davidson and my middle DS is a plebe at USMA this year. Small worlds...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top