Appointments acceptance/decline

Old Enlisted Marine

Old Enlisted Marine

The only title better than Marine is DAD
Joined
Sep 16, 2021
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It is that time of year where appointments have begun and there are some that have earned appointments to multiple academies and some that are on edge in hopes of receiving just one. I have seen numerous comments on how to handle this. I agree that those that received multiple appointments did earn each one of them and that they should take their time and make an educated decision. However I also have the opinion that once you can make a solid decision do so as soon as practical. Maybe I am off base but I don’t think I am, once you decline it allows the academies to get more offers out to those that are patiently waiting And ready to take the leap.

I am starting this thread in hopes of a getting some good info out to those in this position so they can make a timely decision. Maybe some feedback will change my stance. This is something that is very emotional and is a huge life decision so hopefully it sparks some good discussion.
 
Old Enlisted Marine said:
It is that time of year where appointments have begun and there are some that have earned appointments to multiple academies and some that are on edge in hopes of receiving just one. I have seen numerous comments on how to handle this. I agree that those that received multiple appointments did earn each one of them and that they should take their time and make an educated decision. However I also have the opinion that once you can make a solid decision do so as soon as practical. Maybe I am off base but I don’t think I am, once you decline it allows the academies to get more offers out to those that are patiently waiting And ready to take the leap.

I am starting this thread in hopes of a getting some good info out to those in this position so they can make a timely decision. Maybe some feedback will change my stance. This is something that is very emotional and is a huge life decision so hopefully it sparks some good discussion.
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Not necessarily. I can’t speak to any SA, but USNA on these details, but it’s not like a decline equals another offer. It’s about yield. USNA uses an algorithm to determine how many offers are needed to yield X appointments. USNA’s yield is fairly high, but if some reason it drops lower than expected, they use the wait list for this. Around April 15th, every candidate will have an appt, decline or wait list. As USNA finalizes appts, waivers are cleared or denied, or an appointee maybe has an injury that prevents them from being a part of the class, and many other items, USNA could offer an appointment to someone on the wait list if they yield is below the number they want to achieve. It has varied over the years who have been offered appointments off the wait list. We have seen less than 5 some years up to 15-20. We have also seen years where none came off the wait list due to a high yield and the class being even a few over the goal size (they don’t pull appts in the case). The wait list is generally around 100 hopefuls and will slowly be cut down through April, May and June as the last pieces of the puzzle are put into place.
 
There are many appointments given to students that are possibly waiting on a ROTC scholarship and admission to a specific university. Most people have a plan A, B, C & D during this application status. You can't put all your eggs in one basket, there are pros and cons to all, you just have to set a plan and accept/decline when things fall into place for each individual.
 
Generally, candidates should make their decisions along a timeline that allows them to review and consider their options with whatever amount of time they need to make well informed decisions. While making earlier decisions can possibly have positive effects for other candidates, the critical thing is for candidates to get their own decisions right. Once a firm decision is made, there is no good reason to wait to inform the respective SAs and/or ROTC authorities, unless you think holding a plan B is necessary (and this, seems to me, to be a very personal decision). So, my two cents is that each candidate should take whatever time he or she needs as provided by the SAs. If the SAs believed a quicker decision was necessary for the SAs' benefit, they'd be requesting earlier commitments.

Good luck with upcoming decisions!
 
NavyHoops said:
Not necessarily. I can’t speak to any SA, but USNA on these details, but it’s not like a decline equals another offer. It’s about yield. USNA uses an algorithm to determine how many offers are needed to yield X appointments. USNA’s yield is fairly high, but if some reason it drops lower than expected, they use the wait list for this. Around April 15th, every candidate will have an appt, decline or wait list. As USNA finalizes appts, waivers are cleared or denied, or an appointee maybe has an injury that prevents them from being a part of the class, and many other items, USNA could offer an appointment to someone on the wait list if they yield is below the number they want to achieve. It has varied over the years who have been offered appointments off the wait list. We have seen less than 5 some years up to 15-20. We have also seen years where none came off the wait list due to a high yield and the class being even a few over the goal size (they don’t pull appts in the case). The wait list is generally around 100 hopefuls and will slowly be cut down through April, May and June as the last pieces of the puzzle are put into place.
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So let's do some math just for my knowledge. Let's say USNA offers 1500 candidates, with an expected yield of 80%, means they would end up with a class of 1200 if everything worked perfectly.

Kind of what you are saying is that they'd wouldn't necessarily offer anyone new until the 301st kid declined. I know possibly could do earlier etc. but trying to keep it simple. If they do it earlier then they'd risk having a class bigger than planned.

Now on the other side, I'm assuming USNA is prepared to have a class of 1500, cause if everyone accepted (of course not likely), they would honor the appts. I'm guessing they'd adjust future classes down a bit to manage the volumes.

My numbers are probably off, 1400 instead of 1500, etc. but hopefully the gist of the idea is right. Looking forward to understanding more. Thanks.
 
I think that 1,500 is a good guess (and that's all it is). You are correct in the thinking that if everyone accepts, then they will have a larger-than-normal class. Since Congress constrains them to the 4,400 MIDNs (all four classes added together, but with some wiggle room for "odd" years in which weird things happen) attending, then the next year's class would be significantly smaller. A larger-than-normal USNA class would also adversely impact the possibility of someone else becoming an officer through another source (like NROTC or OCS) since graduating from USNA gives you the assurance that you will become an officer whereas graduating from an NROTC program or OCS just gives you a "maybe", based on the needs of the Navy/Marine Corps.
 
Just to clarify my thought process. I do not want to rush anyone. I appreciate the time these decisions take. I just feel like if you have multiple academy appointments and rotc scholarships in hand getting narrowed down to Plan A and B is a good idea. This is a big decision but I’m sure bigger decisions will be made in your life with less information.

“On an important decision one rarely has 100% of the information needed for a good decision no matter how much one spends or how long one waits. And, if one waits too long, he has a different problem and has to start all over. This is the terrible dilemma of the hesitant decision maker."

“Never make a decision with less than 40% of the information you think you need. And never delay making a decision once you have at least 70% of the information you think you need. The time it takes to gather enough information to be 100% sure of making a good decision usually delays the decision beyond when it needs to be made.”
 
NavyHoops said:
USNA’s yield is fairly high, but if some reason it drops lower than expected, they use the wait list for this. Around April 15th, every candidate will have an appt, decline or wait list. As USNA finalizes appts, waivers are cleared or denied, or an appointee maybe has an injury that prevents them from being a part of the class, and many other items, USNA could offer an appointment to someone on the wait list if they yield is below the number they want to achieve.
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USNA's approach (of creating a wait list) likely avoids the problem of too many MIDN in any particular class year since by the time April 15th rolls around (or earlier) and the last significant group of appointments are being finalized, USNA likely has a very good idea of that year's yield.

At USMA, I recall one of my kids receiving correspondence in very early April requesting a decision. This, even though they had until May 1st to actually accept or decline. I always assumed that correspondence was an indicator that USMA wanted to get a strong read on that year's yield before making the last group of decisions. Just an assumption though.
 
THParent said:
I think that 1,500 is a good guess (and that's all it is). You are correct in the thinking that if everyone accepts, then they will have a larger-than-normal class. Since Congress constrains them to the 4,400 MIDNs (all four classes added together, but with some wiggle room for "odd" years in which weird things happen) attending, then the next year's class would be significantly smaller. A larger-than-normal USNA class would also adversely impact the possibility of someone else becoming an officer through another source (like NROTC or OCS) since graduating from USNA gives you the assurance that you will become an officer whereas graduating from an NROTC program or OCS just gives you a "maybe", based on the needs of the Navy/Marine Corps.
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This is off the main point of this thread, but I am not sure I follow the bit about graduating from OCS gives you a “maybe.” Navy OCS serves to deliver the rest of the required annual yield of new officers, while USNA, NROTC and other commissioning programs produce the majority. OCs are ordered to active duty at the start of OCS, just like USNA, and upon successful completion of the course, and if medically fit, their status changes from OC to Ensign overnight on their Commissioning Day, similar to USNA. They begin their active officer time. There was no doubt in my mind that if I got through OCS, having jumped all the wickets to get there, I was headed to an active commission and my required years of ADSO. Perhaps USMC OCS works differently?

I agree if USNA had a larger than normal graduating class, OCS might cancel or downsize upcoming OCS classes, deferring desired candidates to the next fiscal year, but this would happen before a prospective OC actually reported in. Big Navy would know on USNA I-Day in June if a new USNA plebe class was larger than normal, and after looking across all ensign production programs, could adjust OCS intake projections for 4 years later, keeping an eye on class size at USNA as the usual attrition occurred.

As for the main point of the thread, what @NavyHoops said.

I think of each USNA class as a huge bucket to fill, with a target fill line near the top. The task is to fill the bucket by I-Day. The fill rate can be fast or slow for the majority of the process, as candidates with offers take the time they need to make a well-considered decision. As we get closer to the fill line, USNA Admissions (and all SAs) is adept at managing the fill rate down to the last few drops, late in the cycle, at which point it does matter for those on the wait list if another individual says yes or no. At some point, watching the rise to the fill line closely, Admissions declares the bucket full, and the spigot is turned off.
 
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USNAs yield is pretty high… I believe toward the mid-90s, but could be off by a few percentage points. Their algorithms are pretty solid. The times they have had a higher yield than anticipated, it was off by like 10.

I do agree once offers are out there, narrowing to a Plan A and a back up plan is a respectable path forward.

Every year as we approach the Jan-March wave of appts, then the April 15th deadline for USNA and then decision day by May 1st brings anxiety and anticipation. Learning patience is a key part to surviving military life. This is learning early in your career.
 
Old Enlisted Marine said:
I also have the opinion that once you can make a solid decision do so as soon as practical. Maybe I am off base but I don’t think I am, once you decline it allows the academies to get more offers out to those that are patiently waiting And ready to take the leap.
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I agree. If you're positive, make the call. My son was waitlisted at USNA and then got an offer but late in the game - he had already committed to a university and AFROTC detachment. He thought about USNA but felt he was already committed. I'm pretty sure he'd have gone Navy if he had the offer before the college commitment. And we urged him to decline the schools so that they could open something up if possible for others.
 
As a recipient of a JUNE call-up (2 weeks before BCT), I am of the belief that you should accept or decline as soon as you know. I can understand being on the fence between two schools, but your goal should be to find clarity in your decision as soon as possible.

As @NavyHoops suggested, is about yield for the Admissions team and it is not a 1:1 relationship for offer > decline > offer new candidate. However, at scale, multiple declines do result in more appointment offers.

If you have applied to all 5 SA, and have appointment offers in hand from your rank ordered schools 1,2,4,5 - why not decline the #4 and #5 school?
 
shiner said:
As a recipient of a JUNE call-up (2 weeks before BCT), I am of the belief that you should accept or decline as soon as you know. I can understand being on the fence between two schools, but your goal should be to find clarity in your decision as soon as possible.

As @NavyHoops suggested, is about yield for the Admissions team and it is not a 1:1 relationship for offer > decline > offer new candidate. However, at scale, multiple declines do result in more appointment offers.

If you have applied to all 5 SA, and have appointment offers in hand from your rank ordered schools 1,2,4,5 - why not decline the #4 and #5 school?
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100% agree on narrowing down the list. Generally someone with a SA offer will hold on to an ROTC offer until I-Day. This covers them if they break a wrist and can’t swear in, but would possible be able to enroll in ROTC 1-2 months later. Be smart, don’t be selfish, pick the right service for you.
 
Shiner hit it square. I use my own history as an example.

First attempt: five letters saying how awesome I was BUT...
Second attempt: four offers of appointment and one "alternate" (Puddle Pirates were TOUGH)

I sat down with all four on a table and declined two immediately because my #1 and #2 were there.

Then the agonizing decision...took some time on that.
 
My son accepted his offer within minutes of receiving it so I agree that the decision should be made as soon as possible - he only applied to USNA and one plan B school that would have been a good option. But I don’t think the class composition would have changed had he waited.
 
Thank You all for this great input. It is exactly what I think needs to be out there so there is something to be read when someone is struggling with a decision to accept or decline an offer. Please keep it coming if there is any other viewpoints. Much appreciated!
 
A1Janitor said:
My son accepted his offer within minutes of receiving it
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My daughter had a NROTC scholarship and was accepted to a very good engineering school when she received her USNA appointment. She was extremely excited about the appointment and wanted to accept right away. We advised that she wait at least a couple of weeks to let the excitement wear off a bit and really weigh her options before deciding. She agreed. A day or so later she informed us that she had accepted the USNA appointment. I guess it all worked out because she graduated and is now in the fleet...
 
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