Not debating, just discussing. We can return to the regular CFA/packing list/deterioration of Beast dialog at any time. But this topic is one that surfaces quite a bit in the context of admissions & recruiting. Kids want to know where they might be able to go, and how hard it is to get.
Yes, probably premature. But it can shape a decision between services for sure. Just think of the differences for a kid in where they would end up in Aviation across the branches.
So it is relevant to this forum.
Regarding IN 2LT slots in RTSA units:
We'll have to disagree on this, as I've directly heard from a serving officer in a unit with RTSA that the odds are virtually zero as the IN PL is normally a 1LT with very specific training. And typically even a prior enlisted given a choice. The very rare exception would be if there were not enough 2LT openings for mainstream platoons, and they stuck someone on staff until a position opened. The way he explained it was "you have a highly trained 2LT who needs to learn how to manage a platoon in the real world. Why put them in a position that does not play to their strength, etc. Might even be a setback career wise if they had typical IN aspirations". This was echo'd by IN advisors. Strong consensus it would be very rare to send a USMA 2Lt to a RTSA unit.
Maybe there are units that are different, or exceptions. But this was not at all ambiguous or conjecture.
That is true in terms of variability between the three. The most balanced mix will actually be in an ABCT, where it runs around 50/50 for 2LTs. SBCT will skew more toward infantry and the IBCT will skew about 4:1 infantry to Armor
Agreed entirely on average. But not entirely true at every post. I gave specific examples where it was not true. OP asked about popular posts, which I was responding to.
The assertion was that posts that are traditionally "light" have almost no slots for Armor 2LTs.
I said certain high demand light units. And also that other, larger or less in demand units it was easier to do.
The odds ran 1:25 to 1:50 for some posts in some branches for certain posts over the last 2-3 years.
That is, as you can see, not the case. It's much easier to get to Bragg as an Armor officer than it was before the DIVCAV was abandoned and the RSTAs were integrated into SBCT. A bigger impact will, as always, be the manning cycle and not purely MTOE allowances.
With 3-4 BCT's Bragg and Campbell were not difficult at all to get for most branches over the last 2-3 years. Harder for AR, but nowhere near as hard as OCONUS. Same for 10th Mtn. This is borne out in where the posts start and stop in the OML. Clear trends. Meanwhile, OCONUS AR slots excluding Korea went first and there have been very few of them.
This is not ARFORGEN stuff... it's literally unit structure X unit locations X perceived desirability
I was under the impression that I pointed that out. Heavy BCTs will have nearly an equal number of PL slots for 2LTs from either branch.
As did I. So here's the point: Where are the ABCT's posted? Pretty much large posts in the US. With many more slots, in ( as perceived by cadets) less desirable locations. Again, born out in where these posts went relative to OML.
Not sure what you mean by that, but cadets now post to a BCT.
Error on my part... mistyped. "It was that B-thing, what's it called".
Point being, the apparent trend is battalion sized deployments of late. Which makes it harder to predict deployment cycles.
I'm sure you have better information, and I'm discussing rather than debating. I'm told this is a big sea change relative to 5-10 years ago. So the impact on deployment cycle on slots available to USMA is far smaller. And almost impossible to game. Which also was not the case even just a few years back, it used to be a big part of post selection to understand deployment cycle status. Even trading in BOLC.
All of this stuff is not worth debating. The short answer to the OP is that certain posts are in demand and much harder to get depending on branch. Not impossible, but some typically only have 1-2% of slots for that branch. And others, less in demand might have 25-30% of the slots. This is only for the branches that post out of USMA. And there is more variability in support roles, but they are a much smaller % of the total slots for any given post.
I will ask if you are aware that detailed branch & post stats are widely available and shared at pretty much every RC briefing? Branch stats including OML start/stop are pretty much standard. And post stats less common, but normally used to address questions.
"I want to command a tank platoon and plan to branch AR, but my GF lives in Dothan. Can I post to Ft Rucker?" Though usually it's AG/Medical related and OCONUS.
They don't get into detailed ratios, but do explain why the outcome is the way it is. But do share very detailed information, including OML start/stop, ADSO impact, etc. So the outcomes and trends are fairly well known and accessible. Facts.
This is not to imply deep insight into the Army, but it is very specific and factual information relevant to the OP's question. Similar surfaces at various events at USMA. And in the various branch societies.
Likewise, cadets this year and last for at least a couple branches had unofficial tools in place that pretty much any cadet who chose to could predict within 5-10% where they stood based on OML and # of slots. And that information was widely discussed.
About more Armor in Europe:
I'll defer to you and serving officers on this. It is a popular subject of discussion and conjecture based on some recent announcements & actions. But it's just officers reading tea leaves for the most part. Who knows. I find it interesting, so tend to pay attention. I'm not in a position to know or not. But the majority of my worklife centers around recognizing patterns. And I see some interesting patterns that align with the conjecture of others.
Then again, whoever would have guessed 2CR would have been on flag waving road tours intentionally within 100-300m of certain countries. And joint training by multiple US units with and in Eastern Euro countries increased 5-10x over what they used to be. And tanks shipped back to Germany, albeit "for training purposes".
Again, I appreciate the discussion and respect your insight. OP, hopefully your question was answered.