There is no "magic" list that I'm aware of. Rather, those who are involved with the process year in and year out learn whether there are far more applicants in the district than there are noms or whether the MOC is struggling to fill the slate of 10.
One way to tell if your district is not particularly competitive is if the same person receives multiple noms to the same SA and/or noms to multiple SAs. For example, if Mary Jones has noms to USNA from all three MOCs and also has a couple of noms to USMA and USAFA, chances are there aren't a lot of candidates/competitive candidates in that district. That does NOT, BTW, mean Mary Jones is not a superlative candidate -- she very well may be. But there aren't a lot of Marys in that district or there is little interest in one or more SAs in that district.
If your MOC says he/she won't "double nominate" -- nominate you to more than one SA or won't nominate you to a SA to which you already have a nom . . . that's a good indication that the district/state is competitive.
As for VA, it has quite a few competitive districts because the northern part of the state (encompassing several districts) is near DC and Annapolis. A lot of military folks/retirees live in the area which attracts candidates to all SAs and the proximity of Annapolis makes USNA particularly competitive. The Norfolk/VA Beach area is obviously home to several huge Naval bases, so a lot of interest in USNA in particular. However, other parts of VA (such as the far western part of the state) aren't nearly as competitive.
The bad news for those in competitive districts is that it's harder to get a nom. The good news is that those who do earn noms tend to be very well qualified candidates and often quite a few off the slate of 10 end up with appointments.