Each cycle, there are @3,000-3,200 "fully qualified" candidates (3Q).
USAFA selects @1150-1250 of them.
"Roughly" 1 in 3.
An excellent data point.
Candidates should not read this as they, as an individual, have a straight one-in-three chance at an appointment.
Much depends on:
- what nom categories you are competing in often drives the competition stats
- if you have a principal nom
- any LOAs in play
- other factors
Some examples:
- Principal nom on a slate, fully qualified (academic, CFA, DoDMERB), 99.99% chance of appointment offer.
- Presidential nom, fully qualified. No other noms. Only 100 appointments can be charged to that nom source. Let’s say 600 candidates have that nom and are fully qualified. Not one-in-three. Similarly, there are caps on how appointments can be charged to the ROTC/JROTC nom source.
- Service prep school or scholarship prep school successfully completed, fully qualified, have obtained a nom or have been given a service secretary nom for enlisted status at service prep school, 99.99%.
- Fully qualified, have a nom on an unranked slate. Depends on how many are fully qualified out of those 10 fellow nominees, as to who gets the appointment that will be charged to the Sen or Rep. If 7 are fully qualified, that’s not one-in-three. But - the SA can still go back to that slate and offer appointments to fully qualified nominees, and those appointments are charged to a nom source the SA controls, not the Sen/Rep. That’s in essence a national competition among all the fully qualified nominees on hundreds of slates. No way to figure % on that.
- Multiple noms, fully qualified, gives the SA flexibility as to where to charge an appointment, IF they want the candidate.
I tend not to use 100% because there always seems to be an outlier case. And, the U.S. Code language for USNA, different from other SAs, allows them not to offer an appointment to a principal nom even if fully qualified. They usually do, though.