How many Candidates are actually on the forum?

[Pack Dad 1]

To start, I love seeing the Appointment list grow. So happy fore every candidate who get in. But with 107 as of this reading and assuming a class size of approximately 1200, is it foolish to assume that there are about 1100 spots left to be filled? Or like in life, are only 20% of candidates represented in the forums? Meaning lots of TWEs will be sent out soon? Is longer better to get a decision. I am happy to say that my candidate has been accepted to 2 schools that he is happy to go to, but USNA is by far his top choice. Just hurrying up and waiting.

 

[Dr. Strange Love]

### Sample size on this Forum? … let’s say 15% ###

-950 combined slots direct from HS and college reapplication appointments each year …. Probably past the Peak appointments for sure … let’s say 250 of 950 slots remaining here.

-200 slots each year coming in from Naval Academy Prep. School (NAPS) Newport RI … early May is when they get the go, no go

~50 slots coming from Foundation Scholarships

- A small number coming straight from fleet
.

 

[A1Janitor]

The list on this site will get to about 150.

So probably around 15% of appointees are here.

 

[Juddusna]

### Sample size on this Forum? … let’s say 15% ###

-950 combined slots direct from HS and college reapplication appointments each year …. Probably past the Peak appointments for sure … let’s say 250 of 950 slots remaining here.

-200 slots each year coming in from Naval Academy Prep. School (NAPS) Newport RI … early May is when they get the go, no go

~50 slots coming from Foundation Scholarships

- A small number coming straight from fleet
.

I’ve only heard about 5 NAPS appointments. I am trying to make a instagram group for it but I can’t find anybody haha

 

[USN/USCGMamaBear]

I’ve only heard about 5 NAPS appointments. I am trying to make a instagram group for it but I can’t find anybody haha

Is that 15% also true of NAPS appointments? And does anyone have a vague idea (based on the 15% and historical data etc) of how many appointments are left (Dr. Strange Love said about 250 left) and how many NAPS offers are possibly still left compared to how many potential candidates are left? Is it going to be a lot of TWEs on April 15? We know at this point no news is good news, but with only 4 Thursdays left before April 15 DD is getting pretty anxious even though she has a great plan B that she is happy with. Her Dodmerb was done and cleared back in August, she had a decent CFA, but retook it and did better and resubmitted those scores before the deadline, and she has 4 noms (representative, senator, presidential and NJROTC).

 

[NavyHoops]

Based on what we have seen probably slightly less for NAPS, but not by much. We don’t know how many lurk either and never post

 

[Herman_Snerd]

t with 107 as of this reading and assuming a class size of approximately 1200, is it foolish to assume that there are about 1100 spots left to be filled? Or like in life, are only 20% of candidates represented in the forums?

great posts above. Even within the self-reporting nominee list on the board, there are 5 "decline" or likely to decline, and others who are undecided. There also can be people who change their mind, mechanical injuries, etc. I agree there are many candidates not posting their acceptance on this board - likely ultimately the majority of them - further, some details may be reported by parents who are hopeful their DD or DS will be "likely to accept" where the candidate themselves may have other ideas. I don't think you should assume there are X number of seats left to be filled in the class of 2027, based on what is reported here - we simply don't have enough information to draw that type of conclusion at this time. Good luck to all waiting decisions.

 

[MidCakePa]

Beware drawing any conclusions from numbers you see in SAF. They undoubtedly suffer from the dual curses of statistical analysis: small sample size and non-representative sample. Not to mention probably high variance in both regards, year in and year out.

Have faith in USNA — they said April 15 and they mean April 15 (give or take a few outliers). Yes, more will get a TWE than a BFE — that’s true every year. Keep the faith, but also tend to Plan B, C, D…

Don’t spend precious time and energy trying to deduce the logic. There’s indeed a logic, but it’s known only to admissions.

 

[justdoit19]

It’s important to understand that ‘time in’ doesn't add to the ‘probability‘ of an appointment. Which seems counterintuitive. There are many TWE’s here. Everyone, TWE and appointment offers, is looking at the same 4/15-ish notification date. It’s why it’s stated over and over and over: tend to alternate plans. HAVE alternate plans! Dont assume, that bc you are still here, that you are in. It’s a 4/15-ish notification date. Either way.

 

[OldRetSWO]

We know at this point no news is good news, but with only 4 Thursdays left before April 15

Are you tracking Thursdays because of Admissions Board meetings? Once the Admissions Board "wants" a candidate, the record then goes up against the slate(s) for which the candidate has noms and then potentially into and against the national pool. Thussdays have nothing to do with those parts of the process.
.
For what It's worth, the Admissions Board is now meeting twice a week during the heart of the admissions season.

 

[USN/USCGMamaBear]

Are you tracking Thursdays because of Admissions Board meetings? Once the Admissions Board "wants" a candidate, the record then goes up against the slate(s) for which the candidate has noms and then potentially into and against the national pool. Thussdays have nothing to do with those parts of the process.
.
For what It's worth, the Admissions Board is now meeting twice a week during the heart of the admissions season.

Good information to know. Thank you. We thought they just meant on Thursdays and lately it seemed like Thursdays and Fridays were the days the list was updated on the appointments thread.

 

[IggyMom23]

Are you tracking Thursdays because of Admissions Board meetings? Once the Admissions Board "wants" a candidate, the record then goes up against the slate(s) for which the candidate has noms and then potentially into and against the national pool. Thussdays have nothing to do with those parts of the process.
.
For what It's worth, the Admissions Board is now meeting twice a week during the heart of the admissions season.

So this plays to my assumption (but trying not to speculate—hey, there’s a thread for that) that DS’s file has already been reviewed but now he’s kind of been put aside as they continue to review files and see how he stacks up. Like dating someone you like well enough, but maybe keeping your options open for someone hotter? 😬 I think he’s great but being on this forum where the members are most likely the best of the best, I was expecting a later appointment if it came. His application was complete in mid-November, and pretty immediately they requested a new CFA for him to be a more competitive candidate. He was not able to complete until early January due to a late in the season football injury. His admission contact responded positively when he submitted that, and that was the last contact. I guess I thought if it was a definite no, he would have known by now. So we are still hopeful over here, and alternate plans are coming together as well. And I’m logging off the forum for at least 4 days. Wait…that’s not me 😂.

 

[XC_Mom4]

I kind of feel like you. I am hoping they have already looked at my DD's file and it was good enough to keep in the running, but they are seeing how she stacks up against everyone else. Only time will tell.

 

[SnootyHen]

So this plays to my assumption (but trying not to speculate—hey, there’s a thread for that) that DS’s file has already been reviewed but now he’s kind of been put aside as they continue to review files and see how he stacks up. Like dating someone you like well enough, but maybe keeping your options open for someone hotter? 😬

😂 😂 😂 That's exactly what it is!! My son has been on the maybe list since the fall and I just hope they swipe right soon! LOL!!!! C'mon USNA, put a ring on it!!!!!

 

[Coffee22]

This, all day long! Quit playing hard to get USNA, lock this girl down! 😂