I agree, if the Army RIFs it will be after the drawdown. I remember back in the 90's when the AF did their RIF. As soon as they were done the Army announced their RIF. This was about a yr later than the AF. The reason for the time difference was easy to see. The AF finished their missions earlier than the Army, just as Bruno is stating. I will say the Army might not need a RIF because their personnel might be leaving at a faster pace than the AF. You can always tell when a RIF is becoming a reality. They usually will SERB first, then they speed up promotion boards while at the same time lower the promotion rate, finally they put in place the RIF for specific targeted yrs and fields. At least that is how I have seen work over the past 20 yrs.
Remember there is a mandate % of Flag to Field to Company, thus when one is off in numbers they have limited ways to correct without doing a RIF.