Your ultimate goal is a commission in the Navy. Both paths get you there, assuming you are successful at both.
Your stated goal is USNA. A NAPS offer is USNA’s way of telling you they are saving you a seat in the Class of 2026, just complete the prep course to help ensure your success at USNA. They only offer NAPS and the prep scholarships to a small handful. Admissions likes everything about you, but wants to set you up for success. You will be with like-minded peers, already experiencing immersion military life and culture, and will arrive at USNA with a complete set of friends, confidence in your ability to succeed and other handy skills (Marching!! Bed-making! Room inspection savvy! And more!).
You could mess up at college on your own and somehow bungle the NROTC scholarship just as you could mess up at NAPS. But - if you want this, you go after it and ensure that doesn’t happen. At NAPS, everyone there wants the same thing and has been given the golden ticket. The NAPS staff has one goal, getting you through NAPS and on to USNA. That is not NROTC’s goal.
If you mess up at NAPS, at least you could try again through NROTC or OCS and exhaust all paths to a commission. If you say “no” to NAPS, that could be taken as a “no” to USNA.
Finally, pause and think through why you created this challenge for yourself. Look squarely at the questions, “Do I want to be at USNA? Has my ‘ultimate goal’ changed?Am I starting to think I’d rather do NROTC at X Uni because I think that’s a better fit for me right now? Since I didn’t get into USNA on this try, is my confidence shaken and my pride a bit stung, and I realize USNA is going to be a very hard slog if they think I need NAPS first? I don’t know how to explain Navy prep to family and friends, they don’t understand how that works.” Confirm to yourself your goal of a naval officer commission and think about the path that fits you best. Then decide.