One thing that hasn't been discussed in the "what will our officer corps look like in the future" is the different types of applicants that apply during times of "action" and times when the "action" is winding down.
Many SA applicants of 3,4,5,6 and more years ago were signing up BECAUSE we were fighting an important fight, whereas the past couple of year applicants have signed up with an environment where they were unlikely to get in on the "action".
My question is what happens to the "warrior" who signed up during those years when it comes to peacetime? When the nature of the "job" changes, do many of those who joined for the "action" leave?
When it comes to the academy, at least air force, I think the retention issue is a little different. You have to remember that 50% of the graduating academy class will have pilot slots. That has a 10 year commitment. I don't believe that the cadets take that decision lightly when choosing a career field. Of course, some of those individuals will wash out of pilot training; but for discussion sake, half of an academy graduating class is committed for at least 10 years. The other 50% of the graduating class has a percentage that knew pretty much from day 1 that they were going to do a "5-and-Dive". What I'm getting at I guess, is that I believe the retention desires are going to be about the same as it has been in the past. I think the problem will be recruiting new cadets as well as enlisted if the economy becomes better and the military draws down. But once they are in, I think it will be normal retention.
I do think who is joining the military is changing, but for a different reason. Usually, military brats follow in their parents footsteps. However, for the current high school aged military brat, they have grown up with their parents constantly deployed. I know very, very few kids who want to join the military because they have experienced so much of the negative aspect of it as children. Instead of moving around to new places and meeting new friends, they only remember deployment after deployment after missed holiday, etc. The military tempo hasn't been easy on the children the last 10 years.
My daughter followed your theory of not wanting to join the military. She didn't like all the moving around by me and the family in general. She went off to a civilian university and had a great time.
My son on the other had definitely wanted the military. He was heavily moved by 9-11. Granted, it was 6 years before he applied to the academy, but he's always had a desire for the military. 9-11 simply solidified his desire.
And the reason I know my son truly wanted the military, is because unlike the average high school graduate with a certain amount of options, his options were essentially limitless. He applied to more than 5 universities. He was accepted by all 5. Full rides to 4 of the schools. Prestigious schools. Grades and test scores to get into just about any school he wanted to. Yet, he turned down a number of full rides so he could accept the academy. He accepted a pilot slot which commits him for 10 years minimum. He was also selected for graduate school after the academy, so that will take on some more commitment.
So while the past war/deployments may have had some impact on Brats, I wouldn't say it was all negative. My kids put up with my constant TDY's and deployments. One kid didn't ever want to move again; (When she got her own apartment after college, it was 2 blocks from us. lol); the other kid was not negatively affected by the deployments.