Stats on fully qualified applicants and acceptance?

NervousMother

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Jun 1, 2019
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I know I am just grasping at straws here, but are there stats somewhere on the number of applicants that have a nomination, are academically qualified, medically qualified, finish the application and get an appointment vs do not get an appointment??

We’re working on plans B, C, D, and E; but I just want to know what the overall odds are at this point.
 

MidCakePa

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At the DoD SAs, the percentage of candidates who are 3Q with a nom who subsequently receive an offer of appointment is around 40% - 50%. The numbers are available online, though you have to dig for them.

Do not, however, take that to mean a candidate who is 3Q with a nom has 40% - 50% chance is getting in. It does not mean that.
 

txfwindian

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The number of candidates attending SA prep school should be subtracted to get a closer percentage for other category.

Ex if about 240 ( out of 3600 3Qd) are coming from SA prep school and if total # of spots available are 1200. A closer % would be 960/3360 ( for non SA prep school candidates) which is about 29%.

I am just using a rough estimate..
 

NervousMother

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At the DoD SAs, the percentage of candidates who are 3Q with a nom who subsequently receive an offer of appointment is around 40% - 50%. The numbers are available online, though you have to dig for them.

Do not, however, take that to mean a candidate who is 3Q with a nom has 40% - 50% chance is getting in. It does not mean that.
I am not a numbers person, but wouldn’t it actually mean that? If 40%-50% of people who get to that point get an appointment, wouldn’t it mean that an individual who gets to that point has a 40% - 50% chance?
 

Flevvy

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I am not a numbers person, but wouldn’t it actually mean that? If 40%-50% of people who get to that point get an appointment, wouldn’t it mean that an individual who gets to that point has a 40% - 50% chance?
Respectfully, no. The entire admissions system is designed to avoid as much "chance" as possible, as they are not attempting to randomly appoint from the 3Q + Nomination pool. Rather, the system is designed to be as qualitative as possible, where appointments are offered to those the Board deems beneficial to the incoming class based on the applicant's pillars (Athletics, Academics, Leadership, etc.).
 

justdoit19

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If they randomly pick from all applicants that have a mom, and are 3Q, the yes it could be stated both ways. But they don’t. They have their “qualified” people and then they select from them. NOT randomly but with rather with intent to make up the class they want. Which can change each year, or even as the the process progresses through the year. So that’s why it doesn’t go the opposite way. It’s not throwing everyone’s name in a hat and pulling out randomly to appoint.

And to add that, there are the more intangible elements that are considered that you cannot compare to others: interviews, LOR’s, teacher evaluations, legacy, etc.
 

MidCakePa

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Ex if about 240 ( out of 3600 3Qd) are coming from SA prep school and if total # of spots available are 1200. A closer % would be 960/3360 ( for non SA prep school candidates) which is about 29%.
No, the numbers I’m sharing are directly from a document that has already done the math to account for all that. In addition, the number of admitted candidates is not 1200 but more like 1400 to account for yield. Again, the numbers I cite are from SAs themselves and are available online with some digging. Unless something dramatically has changed, the percentages for the last 7-8 years have floated in the 40% - 50% range, depending on the SA.
 

jl123

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I am not a numbers person, but wouldn’t it actually mean that? If 40%-50% of people who get to that point get an appointment, wouldn’t it mean that an individual who gets to that point has a 40% - 50% chance?
This is a misconception about probability that confuses the smartest people, even those with math backgrounds. It is the same concept that made Lets Make a Deal a gameshow success even though the choice to stay with the door you picked or change your pick has only one correct answer - you always change your pick. By changing your pick you get 2/3 chance of winning vs 1/3 if you stick with your original choice.

With respect to appointments, assume the number is 50% and you are placing a bet on the candidate getting appointed:
  • If you know nothing else about the candidate, you would place a small bet and hope luck is on your side - the odds of winning are 50%
  • If you know the candidate has excellent test scores you should increase the size of your bet - the odds are greater than 50%
  • If you know the candidate has acceptable, but mediocre test scores, you should decrease the size of your bet - the odds are less than 50%
  • If you know the candidate is a recruited athlete and has an LOA, you should bet large - the odds are close to 100%.
 

NervousMother

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This is a misconception about probability that confuses the smartest people, even those with math backgrounds. It is the same concept that made Lets Make a Deal a gameshow success even though the choice to stay with the door you picked or change your pick has only one correct answer - you always change your pick. By changing your pick you get 2/3 chance of winning vs 1/3 if you stick with your original choice.

With respect to appointments, assume the number is 50% and you are placing a bet on the candidate getting appointed:
  • If you know nothing else about the candidate, you would place a small bet and hope luck is on your side - the odds of winning are 50%
  • If you know the candidate has excellent test scores you should increase the size of your bet - the odds are greater than 50%
  • If you know the candidate has acceptable, but mediocre test scores, you should decrease the size of your bet - the odds are less than 50%
  • If you know the candidate is a recruited athlete and has an LOA, you should bet large - the odds are close to 100%.
I’m sort of getting it now.

I guess what I was asking is, “Now that my son is 3Q and has a nom, the odds are better than the 1 in 10 we started with?”

Actually, I don’t know what I am asking anymore. I’ll take door # 3
 

richard_miao

non-military-experienced family members of candida
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§ 901.18 Appointment vacancy selection.

To fill a vacancy in the Vice-Presidential quota or in the quota of a nominating authority in the congressional and U.S. Possessions categories, selections for appointment offers are made according to the following nomination methods.(a) The principal numbered-alternate method. The nominating authority indicates his or her personal preference by designating a principal nominee and listing nine numbered alternate nominees in order of preference, and the appointment is offered to the first fully qualified nominee.(b) The principal competitive-alternate method. The nominating authority designates his or her principal nominee and names up to nine other nominees who are evaluated by the Academy and ranked behind the principal nominee in order of merit. If the principal nominee is fully qualified, that individual is offered the appointment; otherwise, the fully qualified nominee ranked the highest by the Academy is offered the appointment.(c) The competitive method. At the request of the nominating authority, the Academy evaluates the records of all the nominees and ranks them in order of merit. The fully qualified nominee ranked the highest by the Academy is offered the appointment.

§ 901.19 Qualified alternate selection.

Fully qualified candidates not offered appointments in their nominating category are placed in a nationwide pool of qualified alternates. To bring the Cadet Wing up to full strength, additional appointments are selected from this pool in order of merit. The first 150 additional appointments are of individuals having nominations from Members of Congress. Thereafter, three of every four additional appointments are of individuals having nominations from the Vice President, Members of Congress, Delegates to Congress (from the District of Columbia, Virgin Islands, and Guam), Governor of Puerto Rico, Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, or Administrator of Panama Canal Commission.

From govinfo.gov Code of Federal Regulations
PART 901—APPOINTMENT TO THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE ACADEMY

@NervousMother We are at same boat, hope it's help.
 

justdoit19

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I’m sort of getting it now.

I guess what I was asking is, “Now that my son is 3Q and has a nom, the odds are better than the 1 in 10 we started with?”

Actually, I don’t know what I am asking anymore. I’ll take door # 3
That’s so funny. I’m a CPA, so a ‘numbers person’, but when I start reading stats like this thread my eyes glaze over.

Your odds are better than someone who doesn’t hold a nom/3Q. But that’s ultimately everyone who receives an appointment....so having a nom and 3Q doesn’t do much more than allowing the option of receiving an appointment. Even though it’s quite the accomplishment. It’s only the first hurdle that has to be cleared.

An LOA is what really ups the excitement level for those 3Q/nom. BUT, because a candidate doesn’t have one isn’t a reason to worry.

Here’s the stat I use: if an appointment is received, it’s near 100pct. If not? Zero.
 

richard_miao

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  1. U.S. Code
  2. Title 10. ARMED FORCES
  3. Subtitle D. Air Force
  4. Part III. TRAINING
  5. Chapter 953. UNITED STATES AIR FORCE ACADEMY
  6. Section 9442. Cadets: appointment; numbers, territorial distribution

10 U.S. Code § 9442.Cadets: appointment; numbers, territorial distribution

(a)The authorized strength of Air Force Cadets of the Academy (determined for any year as of the day before the last day of the academic year) is 4,400 or such lower number as may be prescribed by the Secretary of the Air Force under subsection (j). Subject to that limitation, Air Force Cadets are selected as follows:
(1)65 cadets selected in order of merit as established by competitive examination from the children of members of the armed forces who were killed in action or died of, or have a service-connected disability rated at not less than 100 per centum resulting from wounds or injuries received or diseases contracted in, or preexisting injury or disease aggravated by, active service, children of members who are in a “missing status” as defined in section 551(2) of title 37, and children of civilian employees who are in “missing status” as defined in section 5561(5) of title 5. The determination of the Department of Veterans Affairs as to service connection of the cause of death or disability, and the percentage at which the disability is rated, is binding upon the Secretary of the Air Force.
(2)Five cadets nominated at large by the Vice President or, if there is no Vice President, by the President pro tempore of the Senate.
(3)
Ten cadets from each State, five of whom are nominated by each Senator from that State.
(4)
Five cadets from each congressional district, nominated by the Representative from the district.
(5)
Five cadets from the District of Columbia, nominated by the Delegate to the House of Representatives from the District of Columbia.
(6)
Four cadets from the Virgin Islands, nominated by the Delegate in Congress from the Virgin Islands.
(7)
Six cadets from Puerto Rico, five of whom are nominated by the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico and one who is a native of Puerto Rico nominated by the Governor of Puerto Rico.
(8)
Four cadets from Guam, nominated by the Delegate in Congress from Guam.
(9)
Three cadets from American Samoa, nominated by the Delegate in Congress from American Samoa.
(10)
Three cadets from the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, nominated by the Delegate in Congress from the commonwealth.
Each Senator, Representative, and Delegate in Congress, including the Resident Commissioner from Puerto Rico, is entitled to nominate 10 persons for each vacancy that is available to him under this section. Nominees may be submitted without ranking or with a principal candidate and 9 ranked or unranked alternates. Qualified nominees not selected for appointment under this subsection shall be considered qualified alternates for the purposes of selection under other provisions of this chapter. When a nominee of a Senator, Representative, or Delegate is selected for appointment as a cadet, the Senator, Representative, or Delegate shall be notified at least 48 hours before the official notification or announcement of the appointment is made.
(b)In addition, there may be appointed each year at the Academy cadets as follows:
(1)one hundred selected by the President from the children of members of an armed forcewho—
(A)
are on active duty (other than for training) and who have served continuously on active duty for at least eight years;
(B)
are, or who died while they were, retired with pay or granted retired or retainer pay;
(C)
are serving as members of reserve components and are credited with at least eight years of service computed under section 12733 of this title; or
(D)
would be, or who died while they would have been, entitled to retired pay under chapter 1223 of this title except for not having attained 60 years of age;
however, a person who is eligible for selection under paragraph (1) of subsection (a) may not be selected under this paragraph.
(2)
85 nominated by the Secretary of the Air Force from enlisted members of the Regular Air Force.
(3)
85 nominated by the Secretary of the Air Force from enlisted members of reserve components of the Air Force.
(4)
20 nominated by the Secretary of the Air Force, under regulations prescribed by him, from the honor graduates of schools designated as honor schools by the Department of the Army, the Department of the Navy, or the Department of the Air Force, and from members of the Air Force Reserve Officers’ Training Corps.
(5)
150 selected by the Secretary of the Air Force in order of merit (prescribed pursuant to section 9443 of this title) from qualified alternates nominated by persons named in paragraphs (3) and (4) of subsection (a).
(c)
The President may also appoint as cadets at the Academy children of persons who have been awarded the Medal of Honor for acts performed while in the armed forces.
(d)
The Superintendent may nominate for appointment each year 50 persons from the country at large. Persons nominated under this paragraph may not displace any appointment authorized under paragraphs (2) through (9) of subsection (a) and may not cause the total strength of Air Force Cadets to exceed the authorized number.
(e)
If the annual quota of cadets under subsection (b)(1), (2), or (3) is not filled, the Secretary may fill the vacancies by nominating for appointment other candidates from any of these sources who were found best qualified on examination for admission and not otherwise nominated.
(f)
Each candidate for admission nominated under paragraphs (3) through (9) of subsection (a) must be domiciled in the State, or in the congressional district, from which he is nominated, or in the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, or the Virgin Islands, if nominated from one of those places.
(g)The Secretary of the Air Force may limit the number of cadets authorized to be appointed under this section to the number that can be adequately accommodated at the Academy as determined by the Secretary after consulting with the Committee on Armed Services of the Senate and the Committee on Armed Services of the House of Representatives, subject to the following:
(1)
Cadets chargeable to each nominating authority named in subsection (a)(3) or (4) may not be limited to less than four.
(2)If the Secretary limits the number of appointments under subsection (a)(3) or (4), appointments under subsection (b)(1)–(4) are limited as follows:
(A)
27 appointments under subsection (b)(1);
(B)
27 appointments under subsection (b)(2);
(C)
27 appointments under subsection (b)(3); and
(D)
13 appointments under subsection (b)(4).
(3)If the Secretary limits the number of appointments under subsection (b)(5), appointments under subsection (b)(2)–(4) are limited as follows:
(A)
27 appointments under subsection (b)(2);
(B)
27 appointments under subsection (b)(3); and
(C)
13 appointments under subsection (b)(4).
(4)
The limitations provided for in this subsection do not affect the operation of subsection (e).
(h)
The Superintendent shall furnish to any Member of Congress, upon the written request of such Member, the name of the Congressman or other nominating authority responsible for the nomination of any named or identified person for appointment to the Academy.
(i)
For purposes of the limitation in subsection (a) establishing the aggregate authorized strength of Air Force Cadets, the Secretary of the Air Force may for any year permit a variance in that limitation by not more than one percent. In applying that limitation, and any such variance, the last day of an academic year shall be considered to be graduation day.
(j)
(1)
Beginning with the 2003–2004 academic year, the Secretary of the Air Force may prescribe annual increases in the cadet strength limit in effect under subsection (a). For any academic year, any such increase shall be by no more than 100 cadets or such lesser number as applies under paragraph (3) for that year. Such annual increases may be prescribed until the cadet strength limit is 4,400.
(2)
Any increase in the cadet strength limit under paragraph (1) with respect to an academic year shall be prescribed not later than the date on which the budget of the President is submitted to Congress under sections 1105 of title 31 for the fiscal year beginning in the same year as the year in which that academic year begins. Whenever the Secretary prescribes such an increase, the Secretary shall submit to Congress a notice in writing of the increase. The notice shall state the amount of the increase in the cadet strength limit and the new cadet strength limit, as so increased, and the amount of the increase in Senior Air Force Reserve Officers’ Training Corps enrollment under each of sections 2104 and 2107 of this title.
(3)
The amount of an increase under paragraph (1) in the cadet strength limit for an academic year may not exceed the increase (if any) for the preceding academic year in the total number of cadets enrolled in the Air Force Senior Reserve Officers’ Training Corps program under chapter 103 of this title who have entered into an agreement under section 2104 or 2107 of this title.
(4)
In this subsection, the term “cadet strength limit” means the authorized maximum strength of Air Force Cadets of the Academy.
(a)
The Secretary of the Air Force may prescribe the amount to be credited to a cadet, upon original admission to the Academy, for the cost of his initial issue of clothing and equipment. That amount shall be deducted from his pay. If a cadet is discharged before graduation while owing the United States for pay advanced for the purchase of required clothing and equipment, he shall turn in so much of his clothing and equipment of a distinctive military nature as is necessary to repay the amount advanced. If the value of the clothing and equipment turned in does not cover the amount owed, the indebtedness shall be canceled.
(b)
Under such regulations as the Secretary may prescribe, uniforms and equipment shall be furnished to a cadet at the Academy upon his request.
 

USMA 1994

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The one data point you do not know is who they are competing against. In theory, one MOC slate could have all 10 candidates qualified and your chances there are 1 in 10. You could be qualified at the low end of the curve but be the only qualified candidate on the MOC slate and now you are 1 of 1. Most candidates are somewhere in the middle. They will be competing against 2-5 other candidates.
 

richard_miao

non-military-experienced family members of candida
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BUT, not always,

I am come from GA. Last year, two senators, appointee list like:

ISAKSON ANNOUNCES GEORGIA STUDENTS ACCEPTED INTO U.S. MILITARY SERVICE ACADEMIES FOR FALL 2019
35 high school seniors accepted into military service academies
COLLEVILLE-SUR-MER, France – U.S. Senator Johnny Isakson, R-Ga., today announced 35 high school seniors from across Georgia who were accepted into U.S. military service academies for fall 2019. Isakson congratulated the students at a reception he hosted in their honor on May 5.
Isakson nominated 28 of the 35 students appointed to the U.S. military service academies. One student, **Beth Miller of Roswell, Ga., received a presidential nomination. Six of the 35 students were accepted to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy and the U.S. Coast Guard Academy Preparatory School, which do not require a Congressional nomination.

The students accepted by the academies are:
U.S. Air Force Academy

Gabrielle Auerbach – Kennesaw, Kennesaw Mountain High School
Gabriel Bartolomei – Tyrone, Sandy Creek High School (*not pictured)
Zachary Franklin – Roswell, Lassiter High School
Dane Kinamon – Peachtree City, McIntosh High School
Dalton Malone – Blackshear, Pierce County High School (*not pictured)
Alyson Phinney – Peachtree City, Starr’s Mill High School (*not pictured)
Emma Kate Smith – Adairsville, Calhoun High School (*not pictured)
Zachary Szvetecz – Cumming, West Forsyth High School (*not pictured)
Justin Waldman – Acworth, North Paulding High School (*not pictured)

U.S. Air Force Academy Preparatory School

Jamsen Mendoza – Athens, Clarke Central High School (*not pictured)

U.S. Merchant Marine Academy

John “Jack” Buckley – McDonough, Eagles’ Landing Christian Academy
Stephen Hess – Sharpsburg, Northgate High School
Blake Jennings – Snellville, Brookwood High School (*not pictured)
Conner McKittrick – Cumming, Holy Spirit Preparatory School
Alexander Roberson – Atlanta, Maynard Jackson High School

U.S. Military Academy
Randall Batson III – Cumming, Mount Pisgah Christian School/Marion Military Institute (*not pictured)
Louis Burts Jr. – Atlanta, Our Lady of Mercy Catholic High School
Rylee Calhoun – Peachtree City, McIntosh High School
Emmett Lepp – Marietta, Blessed Trinity Catholic High School
Caroline Maurer – Canton, Cherokee High School/Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Connor McGurk – Marietta, Georgia Virtual School/UGA
Miles Silva – Savannah, Benedictine Military School (*not pictured)
Sawyer Williams – Lula, North Hall High School

U.S. Naval Academy
Margaret Cleary – Dunwoody, St. Pius X Catholic High School/Navy Prep School
Eleanor Deas – Alpharetta, Centennial High School
Jason Hamil – Statham, North Oconee High School
William Meshad – Atlanta, Holy Innocents’ Episcopal School/Navy Prep School
**Beth Miller – Roswell, Blessed Trinity Catholic High School (Presidential nomination)
Thomas Rankin – Atlanta, The Westminster Schools

Senator David Perdue Announces 2019 Service Academy Appointments
24 Georgia Students Nominated By Senator Perdue Will Attend U.S. Service Academies

ATLANTA, GA – U.S. Senator David Perdue (R-GA), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, today announced the appointments of 24 Georgia students nominated by his office to the United States Service Academies for the Class of 2023.

U.S. Air Force Academy
Jack Bluth (Alpharetta)
Andy Ledbetter (Douglasville)
Emma Smith (Adairsville)
Zachary Szvetecz (Cumming)
U.S. Naval Academy
William Ashe (Alpharetta)
Jasmine Brown (McDonough)
Connor Jacobsen (Savannah)
Carter Mullikin (Gainesville)
Charles Plumly (Sandy Springs)
Christian Pumpelly (Marietta)
Nathaniel Reader (Powder Springs)
Radford Wyrick (Newnan)
Carlyn Blauvelt (Marietta)
U.S. Military Academy at West Point
Sophia Emmoth (Savannah)
Dhyuti Gopalakrishna (Johns Creek)
Jay Hajost (Atlanta)
Edwin Jang (Duluth)
Caroline Maurer (Canton)
Jack Miller (Milton)
Rhett Perry (Fayetteville)
Miles Silva (Savannah)
U.S. Merchant Marine Academy
Hailey Hicks (Marietta)
Conner McKittrick (Cumming)
Liam Hulstine (Bowdon)

So, TOTAL like:
USAFA 9+4
USNA 5+9
USMA 8+8
USMMA 5+3

You can find same kind info from your state senator web page. Hope it's give you some ideas when you are at 3Q situation.
 
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