The China Conundrum

[Heatherg21]

With decades of indicators that China wants to be #1 in all metrics and the recent escalation, I am hoping wiser people than I can speak to what is happening and what if anything can be done to ramp down the tensions.

Considering the US Naval forces in the region (and other service members) this seems to be a relevant topic. Please keep it apolitical (challenging, but possible I hope to keep the thread from being locked down).

 

[Old Navy BGO]

China isn't a whole lot different than any other country -- they will act in what they perceive to be their own National interest, and will take advantage of real or perceived weakness. The escalation isn't anything different than the cat and mouse we played with the Soviets in the 80's. In my opinion, what has changed is that much of our society wants to think the world is a soft cuddly place where we can all get along--when in fact there are wolves out there ready to take advantage of the weakness. The solution hasn't changed --- military readiness and ensuring that the bad knows that they can't act without consequence.

 

[MidCakePa]

@Heatherg21, not a response to your query but an observation. Almost exactly two years ago, I went on a two-week, four-country business trip to Asia. I decided to bring along DS, then 17, as a way to bond and to stretch his horizons.

We spent five days in Shanghai. We did an enlightening bicycle tour that stopped at a large park, akin to NYC’s Central Park. We saw a row of sign boards that displayed that week’s newspaper (no doubt curated by the government). Nearby were small groups of elderly men, chatting at various levels of animation. Our guide, a young Chinese woman who’d attended college in Iowa, said the men were free to discuss and debate any subject they wished — as long as it wasn’t politics or government. She said this without a trace of irony.

DS, astute as usual, leaned over and whispered, “Uh, what’s left to talk about?”

At lunch, we sat with a French couple who were in Shanghai on expat assignment. They mentioned that, even in their apartment building, they always felt as if they were being watched. And that neighbors seemed eager to share people’s comings and goings with authorities if it at all seemed unusual.

Both DS and I returned home with renewed appreciation for our freedoms. Aside: Not long after, Covid forced the shutdown of Asia. So we got in — and out — in the nick of time.

 

[Heatherg21]

I have been reading old Reagan speeches in my spare time. This from 1986Feb26 stood out to me. As appropriate today as it was then.

"We want to make this a more peaceful world. We want to reduce arms. We want agreements that truly diminish the nuclear danger. We don't just want signing ceremonies and color photographs of leaders toasting each other with champagne. We want more. We want real agreements, agreements that really work, with no cheating. We want an end to state policies of intimidation, threats, and the constant quest for domination. We want real peace." Ronald Reagan

 

[AROTC-dad]

Excerpt from a speech by JFK on 10, June 1963 at The American University.

Speaking of other nations, I wish to make one point clear. We are bound to many nations by alliances. Those alliances exist because our concern and theirs substantially overlap. Our commitment to defend Western Europe and West Berlin, for example, stands undiminished because of the identity of our vital interests. The United States will make no deal with the Soviet Union at the expense of other nations and other peoples, not merely because they are our partners, but also because their interests and ours converge.​

​

Our interests converge, however, not only in defending the frontiers of freedom, but in pursuing the paths of peace. It is our hope—and the purpose of allied policies—to convince the Soviet Union that she, too, should let each nation choose its own future, so long as that choice does not interfere with the choices of others. The Communist drive to impose their political and economic system on others is the primary cause of world tension today. For there can be no doubt that, if all nations could refrain from interfering in the self-determination of others, the peace would be much more assured.​

- John F. Kennedy ​

Similar to RR and still applies today.

 

[cb7893]

If one cannot look further back than the past ten days or the past ten years, then one can't speak with much authority. They certainly won't understand how we got our clocks cleaned in the "trade war".

One of the best books I ever read. Don't be fooled by the subtitle of the article. They are not advocating for a softer line. The book predates Xi, but it basically predicted the eventual rise of the nationalists and Xi or someone like him..

Losing Face, Leaping Forward (Published 2013)

Two scholars argue that the humiliation of defeat by foreigners has been a nationalist rallying cry in modern China.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Heatherg21]

If one cannot look further back than the past ten days or the past ten years, then one can't speak with much authority. They certainly won't understand how we got our clocks cleaned in the "trade war".

One of the best books I ever read:

Losing Face, Leaping Forward (Published 2013)

Two scholars argue that the humiliation of defeat by foreigners has been a nationalist rallying cry in modern China.

www.nytimes.com

Thank you for the book recommendation. I can always learn something new.

I know this hasn’t been happening recently. This has been decades if not longer building.

 

[MidCakePa]

Not tied to the current tension and looming conflict, but a great view of the China we don’t typically hear about: “Rivertown,” a non-fiction book by Peter Hessler. About everyday life in a city along the Yangtze, it’s an important reminder that we should not confuse ordinary citizens with government leaders.

 

[UHBlackhawk]

I would make a correction to the above.
Chinese leaders do not act in what they perceive to be the nation’s national interest, but the Communist Party’s and, more specifically, the Party elites’ interests.
The above statements about the control of society is correct. They have facial recognition cameras everywhere. And I mean everywhere. I spent time in China in industrial areas. Even running along the river I saw cameras installed in trees.
They are a very militaristic, nationalistic, and prejudice society. I didn’t understand the language, but it seemed that every other commercial was about their armed forces. Armed forces billboards are everywhere. They have a very low view of anyone who is not Chinese and even have signs on some restaurants and businesses stating “No______”. Fill in the blank with an ethnic group or nationality.
When I worked with CHICOMs in Africa, one on one they were great and we had a bunch in common. Get them in a group, however, and they tow the party line.
I see this as well in universities and private schools with Chinese population. They can bash the US, but they have to be careful about saying anything negative about the Party elites back home. Doing so can mean they don’t come back after the summer break. This happened to one teenager at my son’s high school.
All in all, a tough nut to crack made worse by their impending financial issues. Google Chinese ghost cities. Or Google Chinese mortgage revolt. The Party may decide that the people need something to distract them. This would be an expensive war, much of it involving the Navy and Air Force.

 

[Small Team Bacsi]

I would make a correction to the above.
Chinese leaders do not act in what they perceive to be the nation’s national interest, but the Communist Party’s and, more specifically, the Party elites’ interests.
The above statements about the control of society is correct. They have facial recognition cameras everywhere. And I mean everywhere. I spent time in China in industrial areas. Even running along the river I saw cameras installed in trees.
They are a very militaristic, nationalistic, and prejudice society. I didn’t understand the language, but it seemed that every other commercial was about their armed forces. Armed forces billboards are everywhere. They have a very low view of anyone who is not Chinese and even have signs on some restaurants and businesses stating “No______”. Fill in the blank with an ethnic group or nationality.
When I worked with CHICOMs in Africa, one on one they were great and we had a bunch in common. Get them in a group, however, and they tow the party line.
I see this as well in universities and private schools with Chinese population. They can bash the US, but they have to be careful about saying anything negative about the Party elites back home. Doing so can mean they don’t come back after the summer break. This happened to one teenager at my son’s high school.
All in all, a tough nut to crack made worse by their impending financial issues. Google Chinese ghost cities. Or Google Chinese mortgage revolt. The Party may decide that the people need something to distract them. This would be an expensive war, much of it involving the Navy and Air Force.

And of course American leaders always act in what they preveive as the nations interests. It’s never their parties interests. And never the interests of the parties elites. It’s never their own personal re-election interests.

Its always the interests of the whole country.

 

[MidCakePa]

The above statements about the control of society is correct. They have facial recognition cameras everywhere. And I mean everywhere.

Back to that Shanghai bicycle tour. At our first stop, the guide instructed us to line up our bikes along a wall beside a busy street in a gritty neighborhood. She said we’d be away for about 20 minutes. We didn’t have locks. Someone asked about the possibility of theft. She said, “Don’t worry. People don’t steal here. Everything is being watched.”

A week earlier, DS and I did a similar bicycle tour in Tokyo. Whenever we stopped and left the bikes, even in nice areas, we locked them. I guess that’s what you have to do in a free society.

 

[Small Team Bacsi]

Back to that Shanghai bicycle tour. At our first stop, the guide instructed us to line up our bikes along a wall beside a busy street in a gritty neighborhood. She said we’d be away for about 20 minutes. We didn’t have locks. Someone asked about the possibility of theft. She said, “Don’t worry. People don’t steal here. Everything is being watched.”

A week earlier, DS and I did a similar bicycle tour in Tokyo. Whenever we stopped and left the bikes, even in nice areas, we locked them. I guess that’s what you have to do in a free society.

I have been in a dept store recently and out on the streets . Cameras everywhere. It looks to me like you can’t go anywhere in the US now without being on camera.

of course my grandkids went to our suburban pool this summer and bikes were stolen within feet of the guards station.

Unlike the Chinese our citizens are more independent risk takers it seems Or don’t mind stealing while being watched. Maybe that is why in the end we will prevail

 

[UHBlackhawk]

And of course American leaders always act in what they preveive as the nations interests. It’s never their parties interests. And never the interests of the parties elites. It’s never their own personal re-election interests.

Its always the interests of the whole country.

There are competing interests, however, and open debate. Because what you feel is in the national interest is probably different from what I think is in the national interest.
You don’t have that in China except behind closed doors and only within the Party. Even overseas in academic environments Chinese nationals have to be careful of what they say. Like I said, my son had a classmate at his private school who was not permitted to return one summer.

 

[UHBlackhawk]

I have been in a dept store recently and out on the streets . Cameras everywhere. It looks to me like you can’t go anywhere in the US now without being on camera.

of course my grandkids went to our suburban pool this summer and bikes were stolen within feet of the guards station.

Unlike the Chinese our citizens are more independent risk takers it seems Or don’t mind stealing while being watched. Maybe that is why in the end we will prevail

The use of cameras in the US isn’t even close to what they have in China and it should serve as a cautionary tale.
When I say cameras are everywhere in China, I mean EVERYWHERE. Even on a trail through the woods by a river I saw them.
The other difference is that they are tied to facial recognition software so the authorities can always track where you are and what you are doing. This is then tied into the communist party monitoring app. Yeah, there’s an app for that. Go to the liquor store and your score might be affected. Go to a church and it most certainly will be affected in a negative way. Too much of a negative score and you might find yourself restricted from traveling.
Speaking of which, even domestic travel in China is very restricted. If you live in the country you can’t just move to the city to find better opportunities. This makes many Chinese lower on the socio economic scale virtual slaves as they can’t leave their current geographic location.

 

[cb7893]

communist party monitoring app. Yeah, there’s an app for that.

I think you're talking about this:

China's 'social credit' system ranks citizens and punishes them with throttled internet speeds and flight bans if the Communist Party deems them untrustworthy

Chinese people are being introduced to a program that monitors their behavior, scores them, and doles out punishments and rewards.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[MidCakePa]

Shanghai bicycle tour again: We stopped in a compact urban neighborhood that covered a city block. It was what, in the U.S., we might describe as “working class.” In the main alley was a door with a sign that read “Office: Communist Party.” Our guide said such an outpost is a common feature in neighborhoods big and small.

Heck, I don’t even know where the Republican or Democratic party offices are in my county. I’m sure there are offices for a couple other parties too. I have a feeling they’re more interested in fundraising than in surveillance.

 

[Day-Tripper]

I would make a correction to the above.
Chinese leaders do not act in what they perceive to be the nation’s national interest, but the Communist Party’s and, more specifically, the Party elites’ interests.
The above statements about the control of society is correct. They have facial recognition cameras everywhere. And I mean everywhere. I spent time in China in industrial areas. Even running along the river I saw cameras installed in trees.
They are a very militaristic, nationalistic, and prejudice society. I didn’t understand the language, but it seemed that every other commercial was about their armed forces. Armed forces billboards are everywhere. They have a very low view of anyone who is not Chinese and even have signs on some restaurants and businesses stating “No______”. Fill in the blank with an ethnic group or nationality.
When I worked with CHICOMs in Africa, one on one they were great and we had a bunch in common. Get them in a group, however, and they tow the party line.
I see this as well in universities and private schools with Chinese population. They can bash the US, but they have to be careful about saying anything negative about the Party elites back home. Doing so can mean they don’t come back after the summer break. This happened to one teenager at my son’s high school.
All in all, a tough nut to crack made worse by their impending financial issues. Google Chinese ghost cities. Or Google Chinese mortgage revolt. The Party may decide that the people need something to distract them. This would be an expensive war, much of it involving the Navy and Air Force.

A decade or so ago my high-school age son showed a Chinese student at his school videos of Tianenman Square in June of 1989. The Chinese teenager was dumbstruck. How had he never heard anything about 2,000 peaceful demonstrators being shot to death? Internet in China is very strict in its censorship.

 

[Day-Tripper]

The use of cameras in the US isn’t even close to what they have in China and it should serve as a cautionary tale.
When I say cameras are everywhere in China, I mean EVERYWHERE. Even on a trail through the woods by a river I saw them.
The other difference is that they are tied to facial recognition software so the authorities can always track where you are and what you are doing. This is then tied into the communist party monitoring app. Yeah, there’s an app for that. Go to the liquor store and your score might be affected. Go to a church and it most certainly will be affected in a negative way. Too much of a negative score and you might find yourself restricted from traveling.
Speaking of which, even domestic travel in China is very restricted. If you live in the country you can’t just move to the city to find better opportunities. This makes many Chinese lower on the socio economic scale virtual slaves as they can’t leave their current geographic location.

Signing on to the Internet in China is through facial recogntion. So when the government wants to limit teens being online its relatively easy. Except when Chinese kids, wanting more time to play video games, drag the Internet-illiterate granparents to face the computer screen for a few seconds to sign on. Then the system doesn't work.

 

[Day-Tripper]

Excerpt from a speech by JFK on 10, June 1963 at The American University.

Speaking of other nations, I wish to make one point clear. We are bound to many nations by alliances. Those alliances exist because our concern and theirs substantially overlap. Our commitment to defend Western Europe and West Berlin, for example, stands undiminished because of the identity of our vital interests. The United States will make no deal with the Soviet Union at the expense of other nations and other peoples, not merely because they are our partners, but also because their interests and ours converge.​

​

Our interests converge, however, not only in defending the frontiers of freedom, but in pursuing the paths of peace. It is our hope—and the purpose of allied policies—to convince the Soviet Union that she, too, should let each nation choose its own future, so long as that choice does not interfere with the choices of others. The Communist drive to impose their political and economic system on others is the primary cause of world tension today. For there can be no doubt that, if all nations could refrain from interfering in the self-determination of others, the peace would be much more assured.​

- John F. Kennedy ​

Similar to RR and still applies today.

"The Communist drive to impose their political and economic system on others is the primary cause of world tension today."

The Russians probably thought the same about the USA in 1963. And in 2022, for that matter. Not that they were right, either then or now, but that's how they think.

I'll bet the Chinese see it like that, too. USA has lots of military allies around China. China has none around the USA. Imagine if Florida was an island off the US mainland and had a very pro-Chinese government there, supplied with Chinese weapons, visitied by CHine government officials and such.

 

[Day-Tripper]

I would make a correction to the above.
Chinese leaders do not act in what they perceive to be the nation’s national interest, but the Communist Party’s and, more specifically, the Party elites’ interests.
The above statements about the control of society is correct. They have facial recognition cameras everywhere. And I mean everywhere. I spent time in China in industrial areas. Even running along the river I saw cameras installed in trees.
They are a very militaristic, nationalistic, and prejudice society. I didn’t understand the language, but it seemed that every other commercial was about their armed forces. Armed forces billboards are everywhere. They have a very low view of anyone who is not Chinese and even have signs on some restaurants and businesses stating “No______”. Fill in the blank with an ethnic group or nationality.
When I worked with CHICOMs in Africa, one on one they were great and we had a bunch in common. Get them in a group, however, and they tow the party line.
I see this as well in universities and private schools with Chinese population. They can bash the US, but they have to be careful about saying anything negative about the Party elites back home. Doing so can mean they don’t come back after the summer break. This happened to one teenager at my son’s high school.
All in all, a tough nut to crack made worse by their impending financial issues. Google Chinese ghost cities. Or Google Chinese mortgage revolt. The Party may decide that the people need something to distract them. This would be an expensive war, much of it involving the Navy and Air Force.

The Chinese haven't been in a major war since Korea in 1953. So memories of war's hardship are faint and fading. This tends to make leaders and the people not so worried about a splendid little war. Like Europe in 1914, after a century of relative peace after Napoleon's demise at Waterloo. Everyone knew the 1914 war would be a few months at most, with little bloodshed and limited expenditures. Nationalism after a long period of tremendous economic advancement caused by the Industrial Revolution made everyone brimming with confidence.

The US in 1965, upon introducing ground troops in South Vietnam, probaby was similarly certain of a short, painless victory. Didn't turn out so good.

China might have convinced themselves that their now-modern armed forces could quickly deliver a bloody nose to Taiwan or Vietnam.

Hopefully they are carefully watching Putin's Folly in the Ukraine and the collapsing of the Russia army there before getting too eager about going to war.