Waiting for the bus...

boxmm24 said:
free up that spot to be offered later.
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Eeehhhh, I am thinking no... Class of 2023 offered 1360 appointments with class size ending up at 1181. They already know some are not going to accept (lets say it was 13% for last year?)

I believe they have that number already worked in to the total number of appointments offered, so it does not 'free up' any spots if an appointment is declined. Just my $0.02!



www.usna.edu

Class Portrait

Class Portrait page for Admissions at USNA.edu. Updated Sun Apr 21 04:34:10 EDT 2024.
www.usna.edu
 
Service Academies send out more offers than they have allocated spots. It's sort of like over-booking a flight, because they know that a certain percentage of offers will be declined. If someone declines an Offer of Appointment, it doesn't "free up a space for someone else".

There have been rare exceptions to this in the past, but they are so rare that they are usually regarded as inconsequential.

If you're waiting, you probably cannot fathom why anyone would turn down an Offer of Appointment. There are a lot of reasons, notwithstanding getting an offer to another academy and going there instead. Some get scholarships to Ivy League schools. Some decide that ROTC is a better fit for them. Some simply decide that military life isn't for them, even after spending 8 months waiting for that offer. Nothing wrong with any of those choices.

Edit:
Beaten by @Hopeful Plebe Mom!
 
THParent said:
Service Academies send out more offers than they have allocated spots.
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THParent (and anyone else). Honestly, do you think the academies are near-finished with the majority of their appointments? I think so. For years, I've heard on these discussion boards that most appointments are made during February and March, and that it's a "waiting marathon" until April, May, or beyond. It just seems like most appointments are actually made alot earlier. One of my theories is that most selections are made by the end of January, but the "hope" of winning the marathon is propagated by all to encourage late applicants to finish their files and to give consolation to those who have waited since summer while watching scores of LOA/no-LOA appointments go out. Tough process for those waiting.
 
That makes sense, the overbooking of an airplane analogy, but that doesn't mean that they offer all those appointments up front at one time. Maybe we should think of it as several overbooked flights that take off at different times? Otherwise there wouldn't be any appointments offered into the spring. Great analogy though.

@Dadx4 , it would be interesting to see some data on the timing of those offers. It might seem like "most" are offered earlier, but that might vary by SA too. All interesting topics to ponder in the waiting.
 
I posed a question to DS while he was pondering his chances the theme of which is related to this thread...

why would any of the academies send most of their appointments prior to candidate files being due - 31 January for USMA where DS is 3Q and nommed - especially for MOC slates that are submitted competitive? Do we really think they make decisions as to who won a competitive slate prior to the point where candidates can still become 3Qd? To me, it’s in the academies‘ best interest to wait until they can see the complete applicant pool in order to put the class puzzle together.

Thoughts?
 
Dadx4 said:
One of my theories is that most selections are made by the end of January
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I have to begrudgingly agree....There are so many pieces to play with, why not start to place candidates on the board (lets say racetrack!) as soon as they apply and keep moving them forward (or backward) as CFA, BGO interviews, DoDMERB, & nominations are added/deleted to their package???
 
Hopeful Plebe Mom said:
I have to begrudgingly agree....There are so many pieces to play with, why not start to place candidates on the board (lets say racetrack!) as soon as they apply and keep moving them forward (or backward) as CFA, BGO interviews, DoDMERB, & nominations are added/deleted to their package???
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Please see above.
 

USAFA Class of 2024 Appointment Thread

First appointment sighting leads to the annual self-reporting thread! HOW TO ADD A NAME: This is self-reporting, self-updating and DIY. Mods don't update the list (kindly posters occasionally do, but the burden falls on posters). Copy the most recent list, paste into a new post, add a number...
www.serviceacademyforums.com

you should read this post. I found it very interesting. March seems to be the largest month.
 
parent said:
Please see above.
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I hear you ... I do not want to agree with @Dadx4 ‘s theory but today, “sitting on the bus” (actually I would be in the bus station and DS would be on the bus, I’m just waiting to see what direction it goes LOL) and talking to the other people in the bus station with me, it does kind of makes sense.

At the end of the day our opinions do not count. Sitting here waiting , the same thought did cross my mind, a SA could very well have their list 80% formulated by now and are just waiting for the last few pieces to fall into place.
 
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Hopeful Plebe Mom said:
I hear you ... I do not want to agree with @Dadx4 ‘s theory but today, “sitting on the bus” (actually I would be in the bus station and DS would be on the bus, I’m just waiting to see what direction it goes LOL) and talking to the other people in the bus station with me, it does kind of makes sense.

At the end of the day our opinions do not count. Sitting here waiting , the same thought did cross my mind, a SA could very well have their list 80% formulated by now and are just waiting for the last few pieces to fall into place.
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Just for my curiosity, would you be willing to expand on why it kind of makes sense to you?
 
okboomer said:
Just for my curiosity, would you be willing to expand on why it kind of makes sense to you?
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my thought is this ...colleges /SA’s have so many people applying. I think it makes sense (time-wise), to initially separate out from the thousands of applicants, say the top 10% - 15% who have a chance to make it all the way. I trust they have a long history of knowing who would fit best at the school/service academy and who wouldn’t. How can they possibly hold on to 16,000 initial applications and treat them all equally? I have never worked for an admissions office so I’m totally speculating, but I guess this is what people do while waiting...... 😬😬
 
I always imagined they have some preliminary or seminal “piles” done, and are waiting for the last of the elected officials’ slates to stagger in and for the 2024 application portal to slam shut after 1/31.

Now the work can really ramp up in production tempo from always busy to exceptionally busy. Some offers of appointment will be ready to go right away, and the Admissions teams will continue to clear piles, work the slates, figure out who they are pulling from the pool, keep an eye on pending medical clearances, stand by for college applicant/re-applicant grades, track NAPS and sponsored prep updates, sort out noms, manage all the incoming data, refine, juggle, look at potential appointees from every angle...and answer questions from chain of command, elected officials’ offices, coaches, field staff, candidates...and start laying the groundwork for Class of 2025. Endless cycle with multiple ongoing processes, with “product” in various stages.
 
Hopeful Plebe Mom said:
I think it makes sense (time-wise), to initially separate out the thousands of applicants from the get-go, say the top 10% - 15% who have a chance to make it all the way.
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For my Navy friends, if you've ever sat on a statutory promotion board, the theory is plausible. I served as a recorder on an 05/06 Active Duty Board. The briefing officer steps up and has about 10 seconds before board members start keying their scores in. Alot of times qualified officers get zeros before the briefing officer is even into his or her second sentence! There are so many records to get through. It makes sense to knock out 3Qs with Presidential noms early and rank the competitive slates as they come in . . have a class forming by the end of January or early February (establishing the WCS cutoff line) and then fill in the holes until April. Again...speculation.
 
Sounds plausible. There would have to be a substantial amount of "up front" work done by the admission selection committee to even hope to plow through the sheer number of applications, waivers, etc. that are reviewed, analyzed, and discussed in the effort of building a class.
 
I have no idea, obviously - but I imagine it like a funnel. The SAs know who their top tier candidates are, say the best 10-15%. Those get early acceptance or get notified in Oct-Dec. Another 50-60% have to make their way through the funnel - the double and triple checks, the follow ups for 7th semester grades, etc. They pretty much know who they are but it takes time to process them through the system, hence why the bulk of offers go out from Jan to March. Then the last 25% or so are stragglers, either because of late declines or whatever. The metrics say not to really get nervous until March, but the DS has a type II AFROTC scholarship and has been accepted to some good schools as a backup.
 
Dadx4 said:
For my Navy friends, if you've ever sat on a statutory promotion board, the theory is plausible. I served as a recorder on an 05/06 Active Duty Board. The briefing officer steps up and has about 10 seconds before board members start keying their scores in. Alot of times qualified officers get zeros before the briefing officer is even into his or her second sentence! There are so many records to get through. It makes sense to knock out 3Qs with Presidential noms early and rank the competitive slates as they come in . . have a class forming by the end of January or early February (establishing the WCS cutoff line) and then fill in the holes until April. Again...speculation.
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Yes, I see your point in certain groups for sure - 3Q pres noms/PY scholarship prepsters, 3Q principal noms., etc. but if most MOCs use competitive slates, I would think those slate winners would be somewhat later and certainly after the application and MOC slate deadline.
 
amcollier said:
Then the last 25% or so are stragglers
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Yes, this 25% is the "middle zone" in the promotion board. Two lines are drawn. Everyone above the upper line is promoted. Everyone blow the lower line is rejected. Everyone in the middle zone is haggled over for a few promotion opportunities. Indeed, during promotion boards, you will see red laser beams from board members in the tank circling all over the middle zone trying to figure out how who to select (the funnel). However, at this point, most selections have been made. I'm not saying academy boards work like promotion boards. Just trying to construct a model. From a video that was posted showing a mock board, it seems as though there is some similarity.
 
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