Ways to check how competitive a district is?

[majortheta]

I'm in FL-21 and I'm trying to find out how competitive my district is. Last year, my Congressman only nominated six-seven people including myself to the Naval Academy, so I'm inclined to think that it isn't too competitive. However, I would still like to know how many from my district are at the Naval Academy and how that affects my chances of an appointment this year. Would this be something I would have to contact my Representative's office about?

 

[usnabgo08]

Yes to contacting MOC as far as how many from the district are at USNA. That number may be skewed anyways because it might contain appointees from your district but charged under another nomination source.

The MOC Service Academy coordinator wouldn't be able to tell you how it affects your chances at an appointment because they wouldn't know whether you were qualified (unless they would call USNA) and even at that, it still doesn't guarantee you an appointment, unless you receive an LOA or were qualified AND the principal appointee (if it is even the method use in FL-21).

I think the only information you would garner is the number of appointees in your district. In my opinion, this is NOT worth calling your MOC Service Academy coordinator about. However, that decision is up to you.

 

[Whistle Pig]

While generalizations can be rightly made, as jadler has counseled, the short answer is none of it matters much. Why? Because it's all historical data. And the only thing that matters for your question is how many and who are they that are seeking a nomination from FL-21 over these next 3 months. Period. It doesn't matter what's happened over the past 50 seasons ... or the coming 50 seasons.

Over many years, no doubt generalizations can be made. But again, they have virtually no pertinence to what you really want to know of your competition in just one season that has not yet occurred. And that can vary widely from year to year.

Think of it this way ... if you flip a quarter 100 times, while not necessarily precisely, 50 times it will come up heads, 50 times tails ... give or take a few. You'll get it right approaching 100% of the time.

However in the 101st flip? you only have a 50% chance of getting it right. And the next flip by itself will not be any different ... only a 50-50 chance of projecting the winner.

 

[majortheta]

After viewing this thread, I realize now that it isn't important enough for me to bother my congressional office about. Thank you for your input.

 

[usna1985]

^^^

Probably right. You can ask -- and they may tell you. However, even if you were told there were 200 people vying for 10 slots, you don't know how competitive those 200 are. Or, if there are only 11 and those 11 are all exceptionally qualified.

So, it's not just numbers. That said, if your MOC only nominated 6-7 people last year, that's a decent indication that your district may not be super competitive. Last year. No way of knowing what will happen this year.