AFROTC Rated Board 2015

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by Capt. Ahab, Jan 7, 2015.

  1. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    This summer at FT, a couple of things were said about the rated board and about kids who received rated EAs.

    I was told that if one received a rated EA, then they were given a rated position but the job had yet to be determined. Meaning the Air Force determined the amount of kids they would need for rated, accepted them and are just assigning them positions this board. This was basically what I was told.

    Speaking with a few members of my Cadre I realized there is a miscommunication, because they were told we would be merged non-rated if we didn't receive a rated job. Implying we weren't selected and now awaiting jobs, that instead we had yet to be selected.

    Anyone hear from their Cadre?

    Also, I heard the board was going to be the same as last year. There have been rumors that there would be higher selection rate due to the airlines changing requirements, but I've heard the contrary.
     
  2. AlphaAlphaSigma

    AlphaAlphaSigma Member

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    Rated EA meant that you are competing for a Rated Slot. It doesn't guarantee a rated slot but it gives the Air Force a general number of cadets who are interested in becoming rated officers. I don't know if they informed you when you signed for a rated EA if you do not get selected for a rated slot you will go through a nonrated board. The OML scores for nonrated selection is supposed to be pooled with other nonselected rated cadets nationwide and a cutting line will be drawn. Those above the line stay and become nonrated officers. Those below are subject to disenrollment.

    Let's look at the number side of selection. About 1590 cadets were selected for Field Training. I assumed 150 more or less cadets did not make it through and 50 more decided Air Force wasn't their thing or were disenrolled for various things before this Spring semester. That would mean 1400 cadets are commissioning in FY16. Historically half of the commissioning class apply to become rated officers so lets say 700 cadets want to become rated officers. I will add an additional hundred since a lot of us are contractually obligated to apply for rated slots. If we go by the norm number of rated slots (700-800 slots) I would say we have a high chance of a rated slot. I will make a disclaimer as I do not know the exact number of people applying nor do I know the exact number of slots available. I am just analyzing the patterns that were occurring in previous years. To my knowledge airlines changing requirements do not have much effect as people are saying so. The fact that our class size is wayyy smaller than the previous year should make a huge difference for those interested in rated slots.
     
  3. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    I agree with Alpha.

    The year my DS commissioned I believe it was 850 +/- from AFROTC, and about the same from USAFA. His class size was @2100.

    There will be more pilots coming down the pipeline according to every article released by the AF. They know there will be a problem in the future, but the problem right now is the pipeline.
    ~ They can only have so many students in a class without slowing the class down.....unless they buy more T6s, T1s and 38s. DSs class was so large they had to split it in half at a certain point because they didn't have enough jets. Iows some students would do academics on one day while the others flew or did simulators or vise a verse.
    Just because they expect to need more, they still can only get so many students through not only IFS and UPT pipelines, but also in the schoolhouses for each airframe.
    ~ At Little Rock the simulators are running 24 he's a day 6 days a week and 12 hours a day on the 7th and still they are delayed. DSs original graduation date was Jan.6th, it is now the 20th. Mainly because weather happens, and planes do breakdown.

    Right now it is up to a year wait to start UPT and that includes USAFA graduates. What is more common right now is fewer pilot slots awarded to OCS candidates.
    ~ According to my DS in his UPT class only two were OCS, both were prior enlisted with a PPL and worked as maintainers. They said they were told that only prior Es got pilot for their board, the other candidates got CSO and RPAs. Out friends DS went up for the following OCS board as a college student and he got CSO. He was told only 7 were selected for pilot and they were all prior enlisted.
    ~~ My guess goes back to the pipeline.

    The question I would be wondering is what the make up will look like? I know that UPT and CSO pipelines are clogged, but what about RPAs? ABMs? Years past if you asked and were medically qualified for pilot, you had a 90%+ chance.
     
  4. S72004

    S72004 Member

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    That's really interesting because we have a lot of 5 year majors in our det (I will be one, I am an AS 400 going to be an AS800) competing for Rated Slots.

    I have heard mixed things about this years Rated Board. Like how many Air Force pilots will be retiring soon and moving to the civilian sector (Airlines, etc.) and for the Air Force to replenish that number it will be an increase in Rated Selection for this year.
     
  5. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    There are a lot leaving rated because the airlines are hiring now compared to years prior.

    Think about it
    9/11 killed the airline industry. Their last big hiring push was 96-pre 2001. Some were at the youngest age range of 34-35. That makes them now in the 50 range. The majority were like my friends...42. Airlines starting salaries are insanely low, and there lies the problem....AF offers a 6 figure bonus and 50% retirement pay to stick it out for 2 more tours. Hard to leave when you have a mtg and kids.

    The guys that opted to stay for 20 are now nearing 60. Mandatory sit down if I recall correctly is 65, but it might be 62.

    There is another issue that needs to be understood for pilots. Many that leave at the first chance, will do so if they can also go guard to make up the pay differential by going PT Guard/Reserve.

    The AF will be losing IPs at a faster rate than in previous years. It is more than just getting pilots through UPT, but once they are Operational it is about a upgrading them too. If they lose IPs at a fast rate than the system is not only clogged at UPT, schoolhouse, but also at the Op level.

    It is a big picture aspect. Do you really believe that the AF is now offering higher bonuses for grins and giggles? It is not set at 9 years for no reason. 9 is from when they wing. Even for many USAFA grads it means 11 years in. Fighters that 225 or 250k bonus at 32 is hard to turn down.
    ~ They know that! They know many will have a mortgage, and a family, plus car payments. Airlines make O1 pay look good! Our friend went SWA in 01. 20 years ADAF and his starting pay was 38k. That is the thing with airlines, starting salary sucks! AF knows it, so throwing money at them hand over fist helps retention. However, this is a new game. The airlines know they are going to be short in the next decade and they may change their pay, thus, until anyone sees what the airlines do regarding pay nobody knows what will truly happen.
    ~~ JMPO, the AF is taking a preemptive strike.

    The big picture is the AF does not have the ability to get them through UPT fast enough. I believe, and fencer can correct me, but at our DSs commissioning the Wing King said 390 winged from Laughlin. If I do the math correctly. 3 bases at 390, and ENJJPT at 200, means they can only wing less than 1400 a year.
    ~ Hence why you may wait a year to start and why the pipeline is clogged. There is another thread going. Kevster commissioned in May. He leaves next week for Laughlin. He will be going to IFS in March and has no start date for UPT. He may start in April or maybe in June, 13 months after commissioning.
    ~~ If he starts May 2015, he will wing June 2016, add in SERE and Water Survival plus airframe school house he could hit his operational base Feb 2017. Just short of 3 years from commissioning.

    DS commissioned May 2012 from the same college. He will report to his first OP base Feb. 2015. 33 months.
    ~ Breakdown was this;
    1. Casual Status Oct-Feb. 12/13
    2. IFS Feb- Mar 2013
    3. Casual Mar
    4. UPT April-April 13/14
    5. Water and SERE May/June 2014
    6. 130J Schoolhouse July - Jan 14/15

    Once at Dyess he will have to become MQ.

    Stealths DS that went USAFA an 16s was basically the same because for fighters you will go to IFFS. IFFS occurs after winging. It is another TDY like SERE and water survival.

    Just saying don't expect the number to jump because airlines are hiring. If the AF can't push through the students at UPT than Alphas assumption is spot on!
     
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  6. Stealth_81

    Stealth_81 Super Moderator Moderator Founding Member

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    The pipeline is a major problem for the AF right now. I am sure there are many very smart people working on it, but the issue is just what Pima said about not being able to squeeze any more people through. I can only speak about the F-16 route, but it goes all the way up the training timeline. As Pima said, the UPT bases are putting people through, but are constrained by the amount of planes and IPs that are available. It is hard to replace the T-38 IPs who are done with their 3-year tour at a UPT base because the IPs with T-38 experience are needed in operational squadrons because of the fighter pilot shortage. Out at the FTU squadrons at Luke AFB, they have been hampered by a shortage of IPs, the grounding of the two-seat "D" models due to longeron cracks in the canopies (since fixed), and the movement of the F-16 training squadrons to Holloman to make room for the F-35 training squadrons at Luke. Then, as Pima also said, the F-16 pilots get to their operational units and need to become mission qualified with the new unit. Once again, the shortage if certified IPs in these squadrons hampers that timeline as well. My son waited for several months to get MQ in Florida because the available IPs had been farmed out to deployed units who could not fill their cockpits for operational sorties. One of the reasons that the Active Association billets (like my son is in) are expanding is to try and use more of the Reserve/Guard airframes to get more AD people through training.
    Also, the pilots who are done with their 10-year commitment are getting out at a much higher rate than before. This past year only 53% of eligible fighter pilots took the $225K bonus to stay in, which is much lower than the previous year's 64%. The entry level pay for the airlines is rising and they are hiring a lot. Many of these pilots are going to the airlines now rather than waiting because your seniority line number in the airlines is golden. It is a problem that will take years to even out.

    Stealth_81
     
  7. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Thank you Stealth for also showing the fighter track.

    I think we both agree on two points.
    1. Looking at the stats of those eligible for the bonus, the AF has problems...they can go Palace Chase, the bonus may not be a factor.
    2. The AF has yet to address the pipeline issue for UPT and schoolhouse for airframe.

    This class may be like previous years with 90% Pilots, or they may decide that the UPT pipeline is clogged and more RPAs will drop.

    Welcome to the military!
     
  8. Joekenny

    Joekenny Member

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    Our commander just briefed us yesterday on some important changes coming up regarding the rated board. He said that starting with FY16 (and possibly FY15, he wasn't too sure) rated board, you have to earn a rated job if you were picked up on a rated EA or else a dis-enrollment investigation will commence. In the past if you got picked up on a rated EA and didn't get a rated slot, you'd just compete for a non rated job . Now it seems you will no longer get that opportunity.
     
  9. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    Last year was the first year for a Rated EA Board! Before that, the EA boards were Tech, Non Tech, Nursing, and Foreign Language only.
     
  10. mbleykhman

    mbleykhman Member

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    The file and it says that application will be reviewed during January 26th board with the answer By Feb 12th
     
  11. S72004

    S72004 Member

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    Hmm, they convene earlier than our det stated. Supposedly, they will meet on around 5th - 6th of February and should have an answer by February 14th.

    If I recall correctly, the previous rated board selections were released the same week as Valentines Day.
     
  12. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    Im not sure if other detachments are like this, but my detachment has a lot of 400s who are five-year engineers who are going up to the rated board for FY16. They equal the 300s applying class, putting our total application number at twice the amount as last year. Is it just my Det.?

    How likely is it for engineers to be picked for a Rated position over an engineering slot?
     
  13. S72004

    S72004 Member

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    Right now at my detachment the senior class has about 15 cadets (8 of them are 4 year and the other 7 are 5 year majors).
    I am a 5 year major however I am not an engineer and I will be going up the rated board.

    You'll be fine as an engineer getting picked up unless it is a critical engineering major (Nuclear or Electrical). Also one of the 5 year major cadets is actually a 4.5 year major, because of this he went up for the Non-Rated Board first (Got selected as a Developmental Engineer) and is now applying for the rated board.
     
  14. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    Has anyone heard anything in regards to the rated board coming out in the next few weeks?

    Late, early, more slots, less slots?
     
  15. S72004

    S72004 Member

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    Well, the board convenes today and tomorrow (5th and 6th of February). Our cadre just told us that the projected release date is the 13th of February. But as always it is not set in stone.

    Another interesting thing they told us was that EA slot percentages were going to be better this year. They didn't specify by how much.
     
  16. FlyingWildcatDad

    FlyingWildcatDad Member

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    Has anyone heard that if you went to SFT on a Rated EA this past year and fail to get a Rated Slot from the board that you will be disenrolled? My DS heard this rumor but it's not confirmed. Just curious if any other cadets heard of this happening.
     
  17. Winner

    Winner Member

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    Cadre showed us a chart that said 390 pilot slots for this year, I can't recall the other numbers but I remember the RPA number was surprisingly low. Rated results are expected to come out February 13th, but who knows if it'll get pushed back.
     
  18. Capt. Ahab

    Capt. Ahab Member

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    One on my Majors said that a lot of people will be investigated for disenrollment, but good people will be retained if there is room on the non-rated non-tech side.

    But we were told no matter what we will be investigated if we aren't picked up.
     
  19. S72004

    S72004 Member

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    That would be interesting to see. By chance do you happen to know the RPA number? I know last year it was about 80 slots given.

    That's real surprising because there was a rumor going around that RPA numbers were going to increase exponentially for this Rated Board.
     
  20. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    It would be interesting to see especially since they have only just announced that the RPA pay will be increasing and they intend to offer bonuses due to the increasing loss of experienced operators opting to leave.

    It could be that the RPA schoolhouse pipeline is too clogged to push more through at any faster pace than their current abilities. I recall reading that was a big issue. I believe the article stated they can only get through 200 a year, yet to offset the loss they need 300. My numbers might be off, but I remember that they were short in the pipeline due the ability to graduate them fast enough.

    If 200 is the number they can wing than 80 would make sense for ROTC because they have to split those numbers up between USA, AFROTC and OCS.

    For me the 390 number for pilots was the surprise. That seemed low.
     

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