Class of 2017 Service Selection Stats

I'm simply proposing that some common sense and latitude be built into the system and they should try harder than they seem to be in getting midshipmen their 1st choice to the maximum extent possible.

We are still on this discussion? Memphis, I believe they have and are continued to try to be as flexible as they can, within certain boundaries. I did hear about sub draft this year but I don't have the number to share. Don't take my word for it, give the Supe a call or chat with him next time you see him. I think you will get a satisfying answer from him.
 
I believe they have and are continued to try to be as flexible as they can, within certain boundaries.

Yet, over the years, progressively less flexible. There is absolutely no denying that. For all I know, there are very good reasons why it is becoming less flexible. But it is becoming less so. It's simply an observation.

I did hear about sub draft this year but I don't have the number to share.

For the class of 2017, I was glad to help one midshipman (through his parents via private messaging) who was being aggressively targeted for the sub draft. Subs were quite far down his preference list. There is a way to dramatically decrease your chances of being drafted and I'm always willing to help those who are trying to avoid the sub draft. I have advertised this before and this particular family took me up on the offer. It's like going through SERE school. I can only guess how many other midshipmen were going through the same experience so that the sub quota could be met. As I told this family, "The cheetah always catches the slowest antelope ... your midshipman's job is to simply run faster than the other antelopes."

This wasn't the first time I've had to coach somebody through this process. I had a classmate who worked at the academy and gave me some very valuable information with regards to what "they" are looking for when trying to draft an unwilling midshipman into the sub community. Mostly, he shared their methods.

Don't take my word for it, give the Supe a call or chat with him next time you see him. I think you will get a satisfying answer from him.

Oh, I have no doubt that the Supe would tell me that all is well. To him, 86% of the midshipmen getting their 1st choice is characterized as a success. I'm pretty sure I can find 14% of the grads who would not characterize it as such.

There's plenty of time in one's military career for disappointment. You may not get assigned to the aircraft or ship of your choice. You may not be assigned in an area you want to live. You may get orders that you didn't want. Your deployment may get extended. There's no limit to the number of potential disappointments. That's just the way it goes. That's military life.

I believe that an impressionable, newly commissioned officer's FIRST assignment upon graduation should probably not be the beginning of disappoint if it can possibly be avoided. I predict that morale would be higher ... performance will be higher ... retention would be higher ... and it would save money in the long run.
 
"The cheetah always catches the slowest antelope ... your midshipman's job is to simply run faster than the other antelopes."

Particularly like this quote! One can use the same analogy for many things in life!
 
Yet, over the years, progressively less flexible. There is absolutely no denying that. For all I know, there are very good reasons why it is becoming less flexible. But it is becoming less so. It's simply an observation.



For the class of 2017, I was glad to help one midshipman (through his parents via private messaging) who was being aggressively targeted for the sub draft. Subs were quite far down his preference list. There is a way to dramatically decrease your chances of being drafted and I'm always willing to help those who are trying to avoid the sub draft. I have advertised this before and this particular family took me up on the offer. It's like going through SERE school. I can only guess how many other midshipmen were going through the same experience so that the sub quota could be met. As I told this family, "The cheetah always catches the slowest antelope ... your midshipman's job is to simply run faster than the other antelopes."

This wasn't the first time I've had to coach somebody through this process. I had a classmate who worked at the academy and gave me some very valuable information with regards to what "they" are looking for when trying to draft an unwilling midshipman into the sub community. Mostly, he shared their methods.



Oh, I have no doubt that the Supe would tell me that all is well. To him, 86% of the midshipmen getting their 1st choice is characterized as a success. I'm pretty sure I can find 14% of the grads who would not characterize it as such.

There's plenty of time in one's military career for disappointment. You may not get assigned to the aircraft or ship of your choice. You may not be assigned in an area you want to live. You may get orders that you didn't want. Your deployment may get extended. There's no limit to the number of potential disappointments. That's just the way it goes. That's military life.

I believe that an impressionable, newly commissioned officer's FIRST assignment upon graduation should probably not be the beginning of disappoint if it can possibly be avoided. I predict that morale would be higher ... performance will be higher ... retention would be higher ... and it would save money in the long run.

I am going to remember this for when my DS (class of 2019) is going through service selection. I may be private messaging you! The sub draft is already something my Mid is worrying about.
 
There's a sub draft every year.

An O-5 stood in front of my class and told us firmly that there was no such thing as a sub draft and such a concept was just a silly rumor. That officer lost a lot of credibility that day, and we became that much more cynical about the entire process.

USNA told me at the end of the service assignment process that I got my #1 choice. I think I know what my choices were. I don't trust any of those assignment statistics.

Midshipmen understand what "needs of the Navy" means. We spent four years getting summer training canceled, internships canceled, movement orders canceled, recalled from leave, weekends denied, marching tours for any variety of reasons, 0200 breathalyzer musters, liberty secured, and a bunch of other disappointment and garbage. The fudging of numbers and the sneaky tricks for something as important as service assignment just adds to the cynicism and bitterness.
 
There's a sub draft every year.

An O-5 stood in front of my class and told us firmly that there was no such thing as a sub draft and such a concept was just a silly rumor. That officer lost a lot of credibility that day, and we became that much more cynical about the entire process.

USNA told me at the end of the service assignment process that I got my #1 choice. I think I know what my choices were. I don't trust any of those assignment statistics.

Midshipmen understand what "needs of the Navy" means. We spent four years getting summer training canceled, internships canceled, movement orders canceled, recalled from leave, weekends denied, marching tours for any variety of reasons, 0200 breathalyzer musters, liberty secured, and a bunch of other disappointment and garbage. The fudging of numbers and the sneaky tricks for something as important as service assignment just adds to the cynicism and bitterness.
I hope someone shared with that O-5 and that officer realized it.

Without explaining the reasons behind these cancellations, I think you left many who do not understand military process scratching their head.
 
An O-5 stood in front of my class and told us firmly that there was no such thing as a sub draft and such a concept was just a silly rumor.

In a nutshell, the game is played this way. Here's a typical scenario.

They are about 5 short of the sub quota. Using certain parameters (that would be too difficult to explain for the purpose of this post) they find about a dozen (or more) midshipmen who are qualified; yet, who do not have it as their 1st choice. They want the midshipmen to choose subs - so the challenge is to trick the midshipmen into "choosing" subs. After all, it's an all-volunteer community. Right?

First, they flatter the midshipman and try to convince him/her how he/she will excel in the sub community. "You may not know it, but you are exactly what the sub community is looking for. You have the skills, temperament and professionalism to be an outstanding submarine officer. You come highly recommended. Your career will take off! You will be on the fast track from day one ... oh, by the way, did we tell you about the bonus?" Flattering stuff, huh?

If that doesn't work, they'll try to ferret out just how committed the midshipman is to his higher preferences. Some midshipmen are actually a bit confused or ambivalent about their choices. The interviewers will sniff that out and basically get the midshipman to admit, "There really is no big difference between my choices. I could see myself doing any one of them." That's music to their ears! Basically, that midshipman just told them that his 4th choice is the same as his 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice. To their way of thinking, the midshipman is getting what he wants. They may even get him to say, "Subs (which is 4th) is the same as my other choices." Voila! That midshipman just got his "1st" choice!

If that doesn't work, they'll go off the "good cop" script and go the "bad cop" route. "You're being selfish! Your country is calling you for a community that needs somebody with your skills and you are only thinking of yourself. You only care what's best for you ... not what's best for the Navy. There are over 100 years of naval service in this room and - what? - you've been at the Naval Academy for 3 years? Don't you think we have enough experience to recognize a young officer who would excel in submarine service? We're choosing you! You'll eventually come to learn that you will always be at your best where you're needed."

Then they'll schedule you for another interview. They'll wear you down.

Then, ultimately, the beleaguered midshipman gives in. He calls home and says, "Mom, Dad - I got assigned subs today."

"But I thought you were going to fly. You've always talked about going to flight school."

"Well, I had no choice. They forced me into subs."

The midshipman isn't being completely straight with his parents. The parents will tell everybody that their midshipman was "drafted". What really happened is that the midshipman finally gave in. He won't admit it. He's not proud of it. He is probably disappointed in himself - maybe even a little embarrassed. He will characterize it as "being forced" - but the truth is that he eventually agreed.

It will be documented as volunteering and they will probably re-categorize it a "1st choice" selection.

While all this was going on, the same scenario was playing out with other midshipmen whom they targeted to fill the quota. Some are easier prey than others. This is why I use the "don't be the slowest antelope" analogy. There's a way of respectfully holding your ground and making it clear that submarines is not your 1st choice.

You are not confused about your preferences. You would not be honest (keyword) with the committee if you told them that you had a passion for submarine service. You can't imagine that an officer will excel without passion. You'll do it if forced (another keyword). If ordered (another keyword) into submarine service, you'll say "Aye, aye, sir" and do your best. But, you'd be lying (another keyword) if you told the committee that you are excited about the prospect. Part of the mission of the Naval Academy was to educate me in the different communities with the intent of revealing to me what would be the best fit. Respectfully, I can't imagine that this committee knows me better than I know myself.

You'll take crap - sure. But they'll see you as an "antelope" not worth pursuing. Surely, there is a "slower running" midshipman - and he'll be the one who will be making the phone call home, telling his parents that he was a "drafted".
 
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Thanks, Memphis, but if YOUR assignment is to find the qualified but yet committed Mids for SUBFOR (or any other community for that matter), wouldn't you use the same approach? Also, I think we agree that when a new Ensign went through power school and actually get assigned to a boat, and see the significant contribution he is making, the sense of belonging would affirm subs is the right choice. Granted, it is not for everyone, much like SEAL or other community, even SWO, is not for everyone. I don't think there is anything wrong with managing expectations. That's what leaders do.
 
The really sad part of this story is that the sub community doesn't make itself sufficiently appealing. In my day, mids wanted to go subs -- more than the quota. Something has happened along the way and that is the real problem. The sub community needs to consider why today's qualified mids don't want to be in their community and fix THAT issue. The nuc draft is only a short term solution. The odds are that JOs "forced" into your community won't be career officers.

I strongly agree that drafting people to any community is wrong and short-sighted. Giving folks their true second choice may or may not be a terrible thing.
 
The really sad part of this story is that the sub community doesn't make itself sufficiently appealing. In my day, mids wanted to go subs -- more than the quota. Something has happened along the way and that is the real problem. The sub community needs to consider why today's qualified mids don't want to be in their community and fix THAT issue. The nuc draft is only a short term solution. The odds are that JOs "forced" into your community won't be career officers.

I strongly agree that drafting people to any community is wrong and short-sighted. Giving folks their true second choice may or may not be a terrible thing.

A lot of my close friends from USNA went subs and it was actually my #2 choice after USMC (ahead of Navy pilot, no less). THANK GOD my poor STEM grades my first couple years kept me out.

Subs do not entail a good quality of life, and I think there aren't the kind of positives associated with the work that there are with pilot or the other service options. The school is academically grueling (more so than flight school), without the reward of flying a plane on the other side. Instead, an even more grueling PQS syllabus comes while also trying to balance leadership responsibilities. There are long months away from home, often with little notice, doing stuff you can't talk about when it's over.
And, there's that subs aren't seen as "contributing" to the war on terror. There are a lot of intrinsic rewards to subs (also $$$$), but it comes with a ton of work. It's not for a lot of people. They literally can't pay my peers enough to stay in.

To the point of why "only" 86% of mids get their first choice, keep in mind that there may be some poor expectation management among the unlucky 14%.
I can think of probably 5-10 people who didn't get their top choice my year without thinking too hard. Almost all were:
-wanted pilot but got NFO because their "aviation order of merit" was too low
-wanted SEALs or EOD and just didn't make the cut.
-wanted USMC pilot (or ground but mostly pilot) but got USN pilot.
(Plus some Nuke draftees)

In all of the cases I'm thinking of, there were reasons these people weren't picked. For the guys who wanted USMC, they may have gone to leatherneck and not done well, had first class PFT/CFT scores but they were low, or not demonstrated significant interest outside of putting USMC first. So while on paper they were qualified, by no means were they the top group, and would likely have struggled in their first choice community.
 
but if YOUR assignment is to find the qualified but yet committed Mids for SUBFOR (or any other community for that matter), wouldn't you use the same approach? Also, I think we agree that when a new Ensign went through power school and actually get assigned to a boat, and see the significant contribution he is making, the sense of belonging would affirm subs is the right choice. Granted, it is not for everyone, much like SEAL or other community, even SWO, is not for everyone. I don't think there is anything wrong with managing expectations. That's what leaders do.

There is some heavy brass in those interview rooms. You would think they would have the clout (i.e. leadership) to step forward and say, "We were shooting for 130 USNA midshipmen for subs. But we only got 125. We interviewed a few qualified midshipmen who had it as a lower preference to see if they would be agreeable to consider going subs. I do not think it is a good policy to coerce or trick young officer candidates into a community that they have not preferenced simply to fill a meager 5 slots. I think we can be more creative and meet our officer manning needs considering all the commissionings from both NROTC and OCS programs. I'm convinced that a Naval Academy midshipman knows what he wants and it is not our job to tell him what he wants."

Of course, there are always stories where somebody went into a community that was not their first choice and they end up saying, "I love my job! It's the best thing that ever happened to me." Those are great stories. I'm happy for people like that - although I believe there is probably a little healthy rationalization going on. But, I'm willing to bet that it is far more common that these unfortunate officers just do their time and take the first exit door when it becomes available. It turns out to be a lost opportunity for the Navy in the long run.
 
The school is academically grueling (more so than flight school), without the reward of flying a plane on the other side.

As far as which is more difficult - it's really apples and oranges. Nuc School academics are different and more geeky than the pragmatic academics of Flight School. But Flight School requires certain motor skills that transcend intelligence. It's one of those "you either can or can't" things. The "reward of flying a plane" sounds like a Grand Canyon tour on a beautiful day. :) Ask any carrier aviator who has ever landed on a pitching deck at night how "rewarding" it is. There are about a thousand ways to get yourself killed in carrier aviation that do not exist in the submarine community. Just walking on the flight deck is dangerous enough. Once you strap yourself into the jet and catapult off, it doesn't get a whole lot better. There's a reason that the "Hanoi Hilton" was packed with downed aviators and not submariners.

Submariners wait for war. Aviators fight them. It's not a dynamic that appeals to the mindset of today's millenials.
 
Don't forget the hierarchy personnel/promotion system that is in place, officers and enlisted. It is expected for a specific percentage of folks leaving the service after their initial obligation. There would be a promotion problem (lack of) if too many are staying in their respective field. It is always a balancing act.

The only exception is pretty much the musicians in the band who join with a Master degree and seldomly move in their whole career. They know it is hard to get promoted.

SEAL Delivery Vehicle (SDV) exists for insertions. Subs have many more functions other than waiting for war. Submariners just don't brag about their job and it is not overt like aviators' duties.
 
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Where does Order of Merit come into the equation ? In my day ('85), OOM was the end all ...if your number was called, and there was a slot open, you got your choice. This did not always result in the right person ending in an assignment that was good for either USN or USMC. (Example, I had a First Class squad leader that was a total dirtball, was too low in the class to select Navy Air, so he selected USMC and took an air billet -- this guy had absolutely zero interest in USMC, and was the last person one would expect to see in a USMC uniform (as an example of his outstanding leadership, he would order the plebes not to have ice cream so he could have more). I have always wondered whether he made it through TBS , let alone to the Fleet.

My understanding was that the Service Assignment process was supposed to eliminate that kind of outcome by adding interviews/qualifiers etc. to the process, so a Warfare Community could have some input into who was accepted. Kinda like a job interview. However, I would hope and expect that OOM still has some significant impact, i.e. those higher in the class have some advantage or higher likelihood of getting their first choice. Is that true ?
 
Things may have changed in the (now 5!) years since I service selected but basically yes. Each community has certain things they're looking for (Leatherneck performance for USMC, ASTB scores for pilot, mirror fogging for SWOs...kidding...) and OOM figures into that.
 
I do not think it is a good policy to coerce or trick young officer candidates into a community that they have not preferenced simply to fill a meager 5 slots. I think we can be more creative and meet our officer manning needs considering all the commissionings from both NROTC and OCS programs. I'm convinced that a Naval Academy midshipman knows what he wants and it is not our job to tell him what he wants."

I think Memphis makes some good points about considering all officer ascension programs together and not being so rigid about quotas. ROTC provides more officers but according to a GAO report, only 91% of their goal is met, leaving room for hundreds more assignments for service academy grads to allow for some reasonable flexibility.

See full report at
http://www.gao.gov/assets/660/658996.pdf#page33

As an example, at USNA this year there were about two dozen dedicated midshipmen who wanted to give their all to the Marine Corps but could not get in because the Academy was over their quota. When you consider that ROTC did not fill their quota, I would expect that the Corps would have had enough margin to accommodate most if not all of them. However to my knowledge there is no coordination at all among ROTC, OCS, and the service academies. Seems like a great opportunity for improvement.



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Just because they wanted the Marine Corps doesn't mean the Marine Corps wanted them. Those in my class who didn't get Marine Corps were not selected for very glaring reasons to include a prior enlisted Marine and one who had his spot revoked because he decided to fail History of the Marine Corps second semester 1/C year. My room mate was not selected for it because she was the most incompetent human (not just Mid) I have ever encountered. She went SWO and lasted 2 years before the Navy tossed her. I am not saying all those not selected would be turned away from the Marine Corps given the situation to have more billets, but my guess is a good percentage would.
 
Just because they wanted the Marine Corps doesn't mean the Marine Corps wanted them. Those in my class who didn't get Marine Corps were not selected for very glaring reasons to include a prior enlisted Marine and one who had his spot revoked because he decided to fail History of the Marine Corps second semester 1/C year. My room mate was not selected for it because she was the most incompetent human (not just Mid) I have ever encountered. She went SWO and lasted 2 years before the Navy tossed her. I am not saying all those not selected would be turned away from the Marine Corps given the situation to have more billets, but my guess is a good percentage would.

I don't how you can be so sure why some were not selected. I imagine there might be a few that were not selected for "glaring reasons" - but I have a hard time believing that accounts for all who were not selected. For your statement to be true, you have to know, with certainty, that all who were not selected were not selected by the Marine Corps, ostensibly because of poor performance at Leatherneck. Is that what you're saying?

Are you saying that no quota exists? Or, are you saying that it's not possible for more midshipmen to be selected by the Marine Corps than the Naval Academy (or big Navy) will allow into the Marine Corps?
 
Most not selected have poor PT scores or failed some portion of the physical performance at Leatherneck, Leatherneck performance was below average, they were perceived as leadership issues at Leatherneck or USNA, conduct issues, honor issues. USNA does have a quota that is capped. Most years they have enough to fill it. I have seen them turn away some Mids who wanted USMC and not meet quota and they were turned away for a variety of very valid reasons. There are some years that a few decent Mids get turned away because of numbers, but they are very small in number. This has been very small in number. The desire for USMC seems to fluctuate at USNA. My classe and those around me were moderately competitive. Those after me drafted folks.
 
Also, I think we agree that when a new Ensign went through power school and actually get assigned to a boat, and see the significant contribution he is making, the sense of belonging would affirm subs is the right choice.

Rationalization can be a very healthy thing. It reminds me of a scene from the movie The Big Chill:

People adjust. People may even grow to like their job. Sure, it happens all the time. But a midshipmen who always dreamed of flying off and on carriers; yet, who ends up in a metal tube, 100 feet beneath the ocean surface doesn't know what it would have been like to actually have fulfilled his initial dream of flying. He rationalizes that, in the end, he got what was best for him. That's a healthy rationalization. There's no way of knowing whether he would not have been far happier as a Navy pilot. You either make the mental transition or drive yourself crazy with regret. It's a healthy rationalization.
 
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