It's not really useful to consider the "unversal" rate. IOW, all 3Qs with noms do not have the same likelihood of receiving an appointment b/c some folks are more qualified than others.
In that vein, it may be easier to obtain a nom from a less competitive state or district; however, it may be harder to obtain an appointment if you're not the principal nominee.
Trying to figure out your "odds" by looking at numbers may be entertaining, but I'm not sure its any real predictor as it applies to you personally.
Something also to add to what USNA posted.
The world of the Air Force academy appointments changed dramatically in the last year. In the class of 2009-2013, the academy went off of past data and offered 1600+ appointments, KNOWING that approximately 400 would turn it down. Well, in the last 3-4 years, the economy has made it where less people have been turning down appointments. As such, the academies have TOO MANY cadets. (By law, they are only suppose to have no more than 4400 at the academy total each year, and no more than 1000 being commissioned each year). Well, they've been exceeding that, no longer are being offered automatic waivers, and with DOD budget cuts have changed their methods.
This past year, instead of offering all the appointments up front and waiting for many to turn them down, they'd offer some.... wait for the turn downs.... offer some more..... wait for more turn downs..... etc... This way they could ensure that they didn't wind up with too many people accepting an appointment.
So, you can believe that looking at "Past" appointment numbers is meaningful in judging your chances, but I wouldn't use the past to judge the future. The academy is no longer using the past to make their appointment offers, so why would you use the past to judge your chances. Truth is; this coming year is going to be the lowest appointed class. There will be approximately 1050 appointments. For what it's worth, this year's graduating class of 2012, still has over 1100 students. (When I checked a couple months ago). That's why the rules are changing. People aren't dropping out and turning them down as much as they did in the past.
I definitely agree with you both. However, when new potential candidates and parents are beginning to research the process and the chances it is helpful to see that if one makes it to the 3Q level with a nom one has a reasonable chance rather than the ~10% acceptance rate that gets tossed around. Is the 52% really your chance? Not unless they are drawing names out of a hat and I sure hope that is not what they are doing. Without knowing your competition and the details of the selection process you will never know your actual chance but with the numbers like Lugi posted and the previous class profiles a person can look at themselves and at least develop somewhat of an idea of where they stand.