My son got an offer of appointment in Oct, based on a nom. (which were given out in Nov). He had an official appt. by December. We know others that got nom. but have been told they won't hear until April 1. It gets stressful with other college offers on the table. Half full sounds reasonable when you think of the sports team offers that have already been given out and the people coming from prep school and active duty positions to USAFA. Best of luck...it is a long, grueling process.
If your son received his nomination in November, then he was given a "Letter of ASSURANCE" in October. Basically it is a GUARANTEE of an appointment "Assurance"; as long as they receive a nomination and/or pass their DODMRB physical. Which your son did. "Congrats by the way". Just clarifying for some who may not know the process.
Early appointees (Military related nominees) and LOA's, like your son, make up a pretty small percentage of all appointments. Roughly in the 10-15% bracket of all appointees. The majority is indeed in March-April. As the MOC's finish their nomination slates; Dec-Jan; the academy will hand out some more appointments. Some, they will notify immediately. Some, they hold out on. One reason may be to see if they can get more than one in off the same slate, if they have multiple nominations. Maybe some of the appointments they offered already were turned down.
"Something people need to realize. The academies are NOT EVERYONE'S 1st CHOICE FOR COLLEGE". Forums like this, normally have very "Military Motivated, Want To Serve", type applicants. But you all make up less than 5% of all applicants. For MANY APPLICANTS, the academies are on a list of 3,4,5 or more schools that they applied to. MANY applicants have the academies as simply another option. For many here, the academies are their primary choice, with other schools being 2nd or more. I would guess, and put money down, that the majority of the 10,000+ initial applicants to the air force academy, do NOT HAVE the air force academy as their 1st choice.
So; is it possible that approximately half (600-650) appointments have already been given out? Sure; that is quite practical. There's close to 200 appointments that are military related that basically have been known for a while; or recently. e.g 100 presidentials, 20 ROTC, average of 50-60 prior enlisted, etc... Then you have many of the prep-school grads who received their nominations. Then there's the principal nominees by some MOC's as well as the LOA's I mentioned. It's quite plausible that 600 or so appointments are already out.
What does that mean for the rest waiting? Well; if your overall score is high enough, and you have a nomination, you'll be in the final round of selection for one of the remaining 600 or so appointments. Many speak of the 2500 "Qualified Candidates". I don't use that term. It's very misleading. There are a LOT of "Qualified Candidates". It's just that every candidate has a composite score, that rates every aspect of your application. And this pool of 2500+ people, happen to have the highest scores. It's simply a more manageable number of candidates to work with. Remember; if you have a 26-27 composite ACT, 1800 SAT, 3.6 GPA, etc..., passed your medical physical, and proved to be physically fit; between the CFA and high school athletics, etc... then you ARE A "QUALIFIED CANDIDATE". But you are competing with individuals where the "CLASS AVERAGE" of the incoming appointees with be a 3.86 GPA, 29-30 composite ACT, 2000 SAT, mega leadership positions, etc...
The thing is; unfortunately, you have no idea where you stand with the remaining 4000+ nominees, of which most are qualified. If 600 appointments have been given out so far; you could be at #601 through #12++. That will get you an appointment. You could be at #1354 or #1536 or #2834 or #3734. No one knows. However; in another week, appointments will start coming out in larger numbers. Then you'll know. It will be continuous from March through April. Some days a couple; some days a lot. The academies are balancing what they give out, with how many turn it down, with how many more they give out, and how many more turn it down, etc... So just hang in there. Best of luck to you all. Mike.....