A Dogfight Renews Concerns About AI's Lethal Potential

AI is a very real up-and-coming addition to the aerial battlefield. In this competition, I read the reports of the first several rounds of testing and then the report of the actual engagement.

The AF pilot was a new graduate from the Weapons School (In my day know as the Fighter Weapons School). It's a big deal in the AF to be a "patch wearer" (special patch for grads). He was placed in an F-16 simulator and as described he was put into five seperate engagements.

Takeaways...he flew using the normal F-16 BFM/DACT procedures we're taught, the rules of engagement that we're taught, etc. He wouldn't engage the target outside certain "Pk" parameters (probability of kill), etc. The AI target did not follow those rules, it simply flew the aircraft and acted/reacted to its programming. On one of the engagements I read about, the AI target made a "snapshot" gun engagement at the very maximum range of the weapon, no AF pilot would do that as the Pk is just too low. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the shot paid off.

Overall takeaway for me...AI is going exactly as I expect it to. The most "frightening" AI invention to me will be a fully autonomous UCAV (unmanned combat air vehicle) that is a fighter. It'll be capable of the same speeds as "my" jet, but without a pilot and computer-controlled, it'll be capable of 10-18g maneuvering, extremely high "alpha" maneuvering, and will probably be a stealthy flying wing profile.

This is going to be the future of air combat one day. Imagine a strike force package: four crewed F-15E's...flying with 12 UCAV's, all being controlled by the F-15E WSO's. You have a strikeforce of 16 aircraft with four that can serve as a mini "stand off" AWACS and direct the strikers. No humans are at risk.

Now...let magnify that to a force of 64 aircraft, with perhaps 4 or 8 manned...or bombers...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
 
“No humans at risk.” This is what struck me again when I recall a lecture given by an Air Force Officer before the digital explosion. He stated that pilots would eventually be taken out of the decision loop and would be replaced by UAVs and their threat and attack algorithms. AI was never mentioned but that’s what he was talking about. I thought it was a science fiction lecture but it seems we are at the precipice.

The lector also added facetiously that with UAVs, there would be no future need for pilots. The UAV would be devoid of emotion and impervious to pucker factor in the heat of battle. They didn’t care if they “died”. Because of this, there would be need for flight suits, flight jackets, flight pay, or SGLI and there would be no more CACO knocks at the door. He got some chuckles.

The embedded UAV video was taken seven years ago onboard USS George HW Bush (CVN-77) and portends the added insight by @flieger83. Talk of potential force multipliers on 64 plane strike packages off an aircraft carrier. My, my.
 
flieger83 said:
AI is a very real up-and-coming addition to the aerial battlefield. In this competition, I read the reports of the first several rounds of testing and then the report of the actual engagement.

The AF pilot was a new graduate from the Weapons School (In my day know as the Fighter Weapons School). It's a big deal in the AF to be a "patch wearer" (special patch for grads). He was placed in an F-16 simulator and as described he was put into five seperate engagements.

Takeaways...he flew using the normal F-16 BFM/DACT procedures we're taught, the rules of engagement that we're taught, etc. He wouldn't engage the target outside certain "Pk" parameters (probability of kill), etc. The AI target did not follow those rules, it simply flew the aircraft and acted/reacted to its programming. On one of the engagements I read about, the AI target made a "snapshot" gun engagement at the very maximum range of the weapon, no AF pilot would do that as the Pk is just too low. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the shot paid off.

Overall takeaway for me...AI is going exactly as I expect it to. The most "frightening" AI invention to me will be a fully autonomous UCAV (unmanned combat air vehicle) that is a fighter. It'll be capable of the same speeds as "my" jet, but without a pilot and computer-controlled, it'll be capable of 10-18g maneuvering, extremely high "alpha" maneuvering, and will probably be a stealthy flying wing profile.

This is going to be the future of air combat one day. Imagine a strike force package: four crewed F-15E's...flying with 12 UCAV's, all being controlled by the F-15E WSO's. You have a strikeforce of 16 aircraft with four that can serve as a mini "stand off" AWACS and direct the strikers. No humans are at risk.

Now...let magnify that to a force of 64 aircraft, with perhaps 4 or 8 manned...or bombers...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
Click to expand...
Why does my mind flashback to that scene in Angel Has Fallen, where the sky is filled with a swarm of drones? I realize the size difference between those and what you describe, but that is what popped into my head. Precipice, indeed.
 
First it was chess, then what was considered nearly impossible...AI beat the world’s best player of the Chinese strategy game Go. I don’t know anything about flying planes, but I know a bit about AI and computer science. It seems if it’s down to “skill” from the AI assessing and learning the tactics and outcome and permutations of all known dogfights, with no fear and no physiological limitations...seems humans are going to be eclipsed in this realm pretty easily.
 
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