palindrome,
My apologies. I mis-read your post. I saw EA slots 28 ly and 9 ty. I have no problem eating crow, or chocolate covered roaches when I am wrong.
Having said that, this is an insane drop in class size. Just out of curiosity why the large drop? If only 9 are C200's and even if 60% go, that would mean your commissioning class would have 5 or 6 cadets, compared to 3 X as many for the yr prior.
Is your C100 the size of what your 200 class was last yr? Has something drastically happened to drop 75%, i.e. another det became a host det? Did the school admit less freshman last yr than prior yrs?
It is unrealistic to believe that all 9 will get EA slots, because the board is national. Which again brings it back to how will AFROTC during drawdowns justify keeping that amount of AD personnel?
For example if current C300's now have 16, and C400's have the identical number, that would leave 32 POC's, typically there is a 60% reduction rate from C100 to commission, thus the avg class size of C100's four yrs ago, or even 3 yrs ago, was 45, total det size @ 120 cadets . If only 6 go this yr., that = 22 for FY 13 re
OC's and a total det size of maybe 85. If the C100 yr next yr mimics your yr. that will equate to 12 POCs in total and a total det size of 50. A drastic decline in ROTC corps within 2 yrs. AFROTC will be consolidating dets., and that may mean 470 goes on the chopping block due to supply and demand from a cost issue.
Again, pm me, I will give you my mailing address and will send you a picture of me eating the crow you send me.
Sorry for misreading your post.
Now one other thing, nationally ly 55% were accepted and it will do no good at all to compare what the stats were from other dets across the country. The main reason why is some colleges, such as, SMC's (TAMU, Citadel, VT, etc) will have a higher selection rate than the avg, and some colleges will have a lower selection rate than the national avg.
You can't plot to see if the competition is less based on fewer candidates. The reason why is simple. AF HQ has determined how many officers they will need for 2014-15. They will look at where they are standing with AFA cadets right now. From there they will add in their buffer, for both the AFA and AFROTC, plus plan to add from OCS. OCS is not only for college kids, but enlisted too, so it is a recruitment tool within the AF. They now have a number for FY 15.
The easiest option for control purposes is AFROTC. If the AFA has more cadets at this point than expected, AFROTC will be a target. We all know right now that LY the AFA cut class sizes to 1150, and TY will cut to 1050. The reason why was the retention raised and they were above the max stated by law. For C200 cadets, it means the AF may feel they still have too many direct commissions, and ROTC is the way to go.
That also being stated, there is much talk about 200 more cadets going this yr than the previous yrs. Thus, that talk may have come from the AF has breathing room now, and the easiest way to do more direct commissions right now is ROTC, because they don't know how many in 2 yrs from now will apply for OCS.
The sword cuts both ways on ROTC, mainly due to long term strategic personnel planning.
I would expect for the 100's next yr is where you will see a big jump in the selection rate. Yes, I know the AF needs to cut 1.9% of personnel, but out of every branch that is the smallest, and can occur through voluntary separation. The AF started cutting 2 yrs ago, and IMPO, for the new cadets, you have entered after the storm, where the sun is now shining.