Discussion in 'Air Force Academy - USAFA' started by falconfamily, Jan 13, 2013.
I understand that this might be a smaller class than originally anticipated.
im guessing the academy will be trying to get as close to ~1,000-1,200 as they can. my congressman's assistant told me for the past couple of years class sizes have been getting smaller.
Class of 2016 was 1,037.
Class of 2017 has NOT been decided yet...it will be around the same or perhaps a little LESS than 2016.
I thought the goal was 4000? The classes of 2015 & 2016 are currently both below 1000. If 2017 comes in at about 1037, they too will be below 1000 by the end of Beast or shortly thereafter.... along with continuing decreases in the classes of 2015 & 2016. What is the target number of cadets at USAFA?
Does USAFA look at only the total number of cadets enrolled at the school on a certain date (such as the beginning of the AF fiscal year) or are they trying to produce a certain number of commissioned officers at the end of the four years? If the goal is to produce X number of commissioned officers....how many are they "hoping" to commission from these classes?
I think a lot will depend on sequestration. If it ends up happening, the question will be how much the academies will need to adjust their numbers. There seems to be several avenues to manage this. When the class of 2013 graduates, there will be about 2910 cadets (plus about 60 foreign students) in the Wing. If Sequestration demands that the academy reduce the head count of the wing it could mean that the class of 2015 & 2016 will have to draw a line such that the bottom 5% of the class be separated, but it might well be easier to reduce the size of the incoming class to the statutory minimum so that the academy does not have to cut students that they have already invested in for the past year or two.
Thank you Falconfamily for your opinion/insight. In the event of sequestration; cutting the size of the incoming 2017 class might be easier (and financially smart) but long term I wonder what the effects will be on the AFs commissioning needs in 2017. It seems to me that the fewer the number of officers commissioning from USAFA, the greater the cost is per graduate. I'm sure I've read some place that the Service Academies have very large "fixed" costs that are not related to number of students. Perhaps I'm mistaken.
I think you are correct. All of the SA's have very high fixed costs, i.e. the airfield, facilities, and roads at USAFA. So what ever savings they would have from reducing the wing population would be mitigated by these fixed costs. Still an overall reduction of cadets would offer some cost savings, just not as much as some might hope for.
Actually, the USAFA has been mandated by the Chief of Staff of the Air Force to get the cadet wing down to the legally mandated size of no more than 4,000 cadets.
Even with the classes where they are now, the wing is still over that limit.
That's the rub...getting the wing down to the proper numbers. It was ordered in 2010; given a deadline of October 1, 2012. The wing didn't meet the numbers.
What is the wing strength number currently?
Agagles I always thought the date they use for wing strength is at the end of May. As stated if it is 2910 in May, and they offer 1150 appts, they have to assume that all 1150 will accept, even though the likelihood is low, they still must move forward with that number, which would put them over 4000.
Thus, even if they did go to 1000 after BCT, the number they would use would be the amount of appointments accepted by that May date, so the original number in your scenario would include the 1037 not the 1000.
If I recall correctly the thing that has occurred over the past few yrs is the retention rate has remained at a higher level than it us to be.
As far as how it would impact manpower for ADAF in 2017, the fact is they, like many AFA candidates have in place Plan B and C. AFROTC and OTS can spin them out too if they are short at a much lower cost.
They have for yrs used both AFROTC and OTS as a way to decrease numbers because they had enough coming out of the AFA pipeline. I.E. SFT selection is not 100%, not even close, so if the AFA is short, they can use that selection board to pump up the numbers for 17. They also can use the OTS boards to increase too.
This allows them more freedom if they kick the can again until let's say FY14.
Regarding sequestration my question would be the profs that are not AD, are they GSs or contracted? If so and the Panetta plan of 22 days (1 month of work) furlough will impact the classes. I would assume they can take it all during the summer, but will they use that time and walk down the road to interview at other colleges?
Also, although there are fixed costs, the DoD by shrinking class size can also now say there are too many profs., so to save costs let's not renew their contract. That would reduce costs.
Fixed costs, such as food or laundry for those 1000 C4Cs add up. Medical coverage is another cost. Summer programs too. People tend to be so busy jumping over the pennies to pick up the nickels that they tend to forget the pennies add up just as fast and can be easier to get to that magic dollar amount.
Current Stats as of 31 Dec 12:
2011-2012 Male: 1 Female: 0 Total: 1
2013----- Male: 840 Female: 218 Total: 1058
2014----- Male: 808 Female: 245 Total: 1053
2015----- Male: 744 Female: 210 Total: 954
2016----- Male: 752 Female: 209 Total: 961
WING----- Male: 3145 Female: 882 Total: 4027
There were a significant number of cadets recommended for separation at the end of the fall term. I wonder if these numbers reflect that. If they do not the wing strength would currently be quite a bit below 4000 assuming all those recommended for separation were in fact seperated.
I think there are about 60 or so Foreign students in that number. I was told that such students are not counted against the Wing strength for the statutory limit of 4K. If so, the Wing numbers are actually under 4K right now.
Anyone have any idea of how many (%) cadets make it through the first two years and then decide NOT to commit? Along with the C4Cs/C3Cs that won't finish this year and those that won't come back in the Fall.....the wing may be quite a bit below 4000 even if ALL the 1037 cadets from the class of 2017 complete Beast and start school. The following article seems to use Oct 1 as the date to measure the wing strength.
From a previous post:
"The Air Force Academy Cadet Wing's end strength will decrease from approximately 4,500 cadets to 4,000 cadets by Oct. 1, 2012. The Academy will accomplish the reduction by reducing class size to 1,120 for the Class of 2015 and 1,050 for the Class of 2016. Beginning with the Class of 2017, the Academy will admit approximately 1,165 cadets in each class. In addition, normal attrition from the Academy will aid in bringing the cadet end strength to 4,000."
Clarification for your last post.
How do you know? What in your opinion is significant, 10, 25,50, or 100?
I am not trying to pick a fight, but the source in this scenario does matter. A cadet that is a child with hearsay at the AFA, is not the same as Gen. Gould saying it.
If May is the count date for the 4000 target. Mathematically you are looking at an incoming class of 1031 to meet the number of 4000.
The problem is as I have stated before with every appointment they must assume they will attend. Nobody has yet to ask the true question for this aspect.
What is acceptance rate for appointees? If the AFA has a 90% matriculation rate, than 1100 appointments would be their goal to be under the 4000 marker.
If it is 80% than you can expect a 1200.
I get most posters have no ADAF ties. No ties = not getting AF budget. However mos posters do understand strategic long term planning from a corporate world.
That is usually a 5 yr plan.
People tend to forget the AF has a limited budget akin to Fortune 500s. They are going to plan for personnel needs 5 yrs from now just like Microsoft. They are going to look at cost benefits, They are going to look at ROI.
AFA is part of all that.
The DOD has to cut hard if sequestration occurs.
Ask yourself should the AFA be at 4000 if it means retirees that served for 20 yrs pay more via medical benefits?
I don't care either way for myself personally, but I do care that a Vietnam vet that served might have to pay more for their medical coverage because of sequestration.
Cuts have to be made for the DOD budget. End of subject, period, dot.
AFA IMPO should be on the table, and those vets that defended this country in a war conflict should get an edge over the AFA cadets.
I have a close friend that is a professor at AFA.
It really doesn't matter as we can all speculate as much as we like about the next class size but USAFA will release that information when they are ready and I would bet there is more that goes into that decision than any of us know.
Actually that would be a GREAT question for another thread. This one was/is focused on how many appointments the class of 2017 will receive. At least according to the most recent AF statements that I have read....the goal is still 4000 cadets in the wing.
Last September General Gould spoke to the Parents Club President's Conference and said that he expected the class of 2016 to be about 1120. He also said (in the same speech) he didn't think sequestration would happen.
So since sequestration is still on the table, all bets are off for the 1120 number, I would guess.
Sure as SHEAAATTT it does matter regarding significance
10, 20, 25% impacts the AFA Wing strength.
10% may = 100 cadets.
20& may equal 200
AFA can only have 4K.
Not only that, but add in the nom world.
If they cut those cadets at the AFA, it changes the charging for an MOC. They can have 5 at any given time.
I respect you Packer, and I mean ALOT, but I have an issue when any poster states a blank statement like yours and skirt the question asked.
I ask again...What is significant?
OBTW, Bullet will tell you I am like a dog with a bone. I am not going to stop until you actually give a number or percentage. You said SIGNIFICANT.
This forum is to educate posters and lurkers. You have stated that your friend is a Prof at the AFA, You have AFA insight and I respect that!
It would put it about 50 under, if the previous posted numbers do not already include this.
Also, there are currently 204 students at the AF Prep School and we are expected to lose more.
Historically, around 180 continue to the Academy.
Separate names with a comma.