Chances/how competitive?

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flyer990

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Joined
Nov 12, 2023
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my DD finished her entire application, waiting on DoDMERB now. I hate to do another "chances" forum, but do her chances look okay? She lives in an incredibly competitive district, so chances of getting appointment even with a nomination are a little iffy.
  • demographic:
    • Asian, if that matters
    • Southern California
  • 1 Congressional Nomination
  • Passed CFA
  • GPA (UW 3.6/ W 4.05)
  • 13+ AP Classes, 5 Honors
  • SAT: 1510 (Math: 780, English/Reading: 730)
  • Varsity Women's Field Hockey
    • Varsity Letter
  • Varsity Women's water polo
    • Varsity Letter
  • Civil Air Patrol
    • Flight Sergeant
    • First Sergeant
    • Flight Commander
  • Congressional Award Gold Medal
  • Nonprofit organization founder for non-food donations
  • Has played piano for 11 years, certified by the Certificate of Merit
  • Color Guard Team
  • School Laboratory Science Team
    • Gold International Medal (sophomore year)
    • Silver International Medal (junior year)
  • 450+ Volunteer Hours
 
flyer990 said:
my DD finished her entire application, waiting on DoDMERB now. I hate to do another "chances" forum, but do her chances look okay? She lives in an incredibly competitive district, so chances of getting appointment even with a nomination are a little iffy.
  • demographic:
    • Asian, if that matters
    • Southern California
  • 1 Congressional Nomination
  • Passed CFA
  • GPA (UW 3.6/ W 4.05)
  • 13+ AP Classes, 5 Honors
  • SAT: 1510 (Math: 780, English/Reading: 730)
  • Varsity Women's Field Hockey
    • Varsity Letter
  • Varsity Women's water polo
    • Varsity Letter
  • Civil Air Patrol
    • Flight Sergeant
    • First Sergeant
    • Flight Commander
  • Congressional Award Gold Medal
  • Nonprofit organization founder for non-food donations
  • Has played piano for 11 years, certified by the Certificate of Merit
  • Color Guard Team
  • School Laboratory Science Team
    • Gold International Medal (sophomore year)
    • Silver International Medal (junior year)
  • 450+ Volunteer Hours
Click to expand...
... very competitive. Are USMA/USNA in the picture?
 
flyer990 said:
Darn. What are we lacking?
Click to expand...

Being average is good considering the competition.
That SAT/GPA in our area among Asians --- is also average (even below).
SA admission is based on WCS You may estimate your DD WCS percentile ---- My DS has higher SAT/GPA --- he is just above average on WCS.
 
No one here can provide meaningful odds because no one here knows what her competition looks like. And there are intangibles beyond the numbers that we don’t see. Find USAFA’s latest class profile and see how she stacks up. That may be your best guide.
 
Your competitiveness is now out of your control.
She's put in the work and everything that goes in the application; all you can do is wait.

It will depend on THIS cycle's...
1. Other people on her slate;
2. How badly USAFA wants her/where she is on the NWL/if she is a puzzle piece that USAFA can't live without in THIS cycle.

..all of which is no longer in her control.

Try to work on civilian colleges & scholarships/honors colleges/your taxes/high school shutterfly album - but I must admit, it is hard not be stayed glued to SAF!
 
flyer990 said:
Darn. What are we lacking?
Click to expand...
Things that I've seen from other candidates with similar stats:

Girls State
Team Captaincies and multiple team captancies
All Conference/All County/All State in their sport
Very high class rank
Job

Some have all of that although fewer volunteer hours and remember, the things I mentioned will bring WCS points
and volunteer hours will not.

NOTE: This is in no way a criticism of your daughter who appears to be a fine candidate but you asked for what was missing and these
are things that can set you apart in a highly competitive district.
 
T-37IP said:
Average. The competition is fierce.
Click to expand...
Like has been previously noted, no one knows for sure but off hand, Girl's State, GPA, Team Captain, Eagle Scout/Mitchell /Gold rank, league/ district/state level awards, multiple languages, band, National Honor Society, Class officer, etc.
The volunteer hours are not captured anywhere in the application process, except where she provided leadership.

Same with the Congressional Gold Medal. Both of my boys earned it, no one knows about it, including many Congressman, etc, unfortunately.

There is a crazy level of competition, thus my "average" assessment. Average is good. She is certainly in the mix.

I have attached a sanitized version of an actual resume.

Good luck!
 

Attachments

  • sanitized resume.pdf
    79.6 KB · Views: 67
I think we can all agree that resume represents an applicant that is above, and frankly way beyond, average.
 
flyer990 said:
my DD finished her entire application, waiting on DoDMERB now. I hate to do another "chances" forum, but do her chances look okay? She lives in an incredibly competitive district, so chances of getting appointment even with a nomination are a little iffy.
  • demographic:
    • Asian, if that matters
    • Southern California
  • 1 Congressional Nomination
  • Passed CFA
  • GPA (UW 3.6/ W 4.05)
  • 13+ AP Classes, 5 Honors
  • SAT: 1510 (Math: 780, English/Reading: 730)
  • Varsity Women's Field Hockey
    • Varsity Letter
  • Varsity Women's water polo
    • Varsity Letter
  • Civil Air Patrol
    • Flight Sergeant
    • First Sergeant
    • Flight Commander
  • Congressional Award Gold Medal
  • Nonprofit organization founder for non-food donations
  • Has played piano for 11 years, certified by the Certificate of Merit
  • Color Guard Team
  • School Laboratory Science Team
    • Gold International Medal (sophomore year)
    • Silver International Medal (junior year)
  • 450+ Volunteer Hours
Click to expand...

Looks Incredible! Does she have an LOA?
 
... just my $.02 cents. This candidate will be offered an appointment by USNA.

Please us know in the future. Thanks.
 
Based on the information provided, your DDs application to the USAFA appears to be quite strong. However, it's important to remember that the competitiveness of each application is relative to the pool of applicants. While the accomplishments and extracurricular involvement are impressive, there may be other applicants with even more notable achievements and qualifications.

Some areas where her application could potentially be considered average in comparison to the competition might include the GPA, which is still solid but falls within a competitive range, and SAT score. Additionally, being from a competitive district means there will likely be many highly qualified applicants vying for limited spots.

That being said, it's important to remember that the selection process takes into account a holistic view of each applicant, considering factors such as leadership potential, character, and personal achievements.

Ultimately, the final decision rests with the admissions committee, and it's difficult to predict one's chances without knowing the overall applicant pool and the specific criteria they prioritize. It's important to remain positive and supportive throughout the process, regardless of the outcome.
 
severn said:
... just my $.02 cents. This candidate will be offered an appointment by USNA.

Please us know in the future. Thanks.
Click to expand...
Do you know what district this candidate is in, and what the slate looks like?
 
She already has a congressional nomination? I think she is a very strong candidate. Especially her 450+ volunteer hours and founding a non-profit. Strong academics too. I personally think that candidates should be authentic and passionately follow their interests without just checking off boxes.
 
Last edited:
AFrpaso said:
I think we can all agree that resume represents an applicant that is above, and frankly way beyond, average.
Click to expand...
Right? Started a non-profit with over 450 volunteer hours and Gold and Silver International Medals for School Lab Science Team. Add to that excellent standardized testing, CAP leadership, Varsity letters.

Strong candiadate.
 
Osprey123 said:
She already has a congressional nomination? I think she is a very strong candidate. Especially her 450+ volunteer hours and founding a non-profit. Strong academics too. I personally think that candidates should be authentic and passionately follow their interests without just checking off boxes.
Click to expand...

I agree she is a strong and compelling candidate.

But this “just checking off boxes” is overplayed imo. It’s a similar type of thing students said about my son in high school with a top academic record - they said he was “book smart.”

My son checked all the boxes. But not to get into USNA. He made the decision to go to USNA in 11th grade. His checking the boxes started in 7th grade.
 
flyer990 said:
my DD finished her entire application, waiting on DoDMERB now. I hate to do another "chances" forum, but do her chances look okay? She lives in an incredibly competitive district, so chances of getting appointment even with a nomination are a little iffy.
  • demographic:
    • Asian, if that matters
    • Southern California
  • 1 Congressional Nomination
  • Passed CFA
  • GPA (UW 3.6/ W 4.05)
  • 13+ AP Classes, 5 Honors
  • SAT: 1510 (Math: 780, English/Reading: 730)
  • Varsity Women's Field Hockey
    • Varsity Letter
  • Varsity Women's water polo
    • Varsity Letter
  • Civil Air Patrol
    • Flight Sergeant
    • First Sergeant
    • Flight Commander
  • Congressional Award Gold Medal
  • Nonprofit organization founder for non-food donations
  • Has played piano for 11 years, certified by the Certificate of Merit
  • Color Guard Team
  • School Laboratory Science Team
    • Gold International Medal (sophomore year)
    • Silver International Medal (junior year)
  • 450+ Volunteer Hours
Click to expand...
Stats looks very good. But, Keep in mind that, race-conscious is in the consideration for admission (Even U.S. Supreme Court Ends Affirmative Action in Higher Education 2023, but not includes SA ). So, Asian compares to Asian in a same pool.... From historical data, Asian cadets take 5-6% of all students body.
 
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