I always smile when I hear people mention the word competitive. Competitive state, district, and my favorite; when they say they go to a competitive school. Let's clarify a few things.
1. You live where you live, you go to the school where you go to, so except for maybe 1% of the population that can change that; there isn't a single thing you can do about it. So why even worry yourself about it? So you can rationalize to yourself in case you don't receive an appointment?
2. Every other person you are initially competing against, lives in the same state, same district, and attends probably the same similar school districts. Thus, you all have the same opportunities as each other. So there's no advantages or disadvantages.
3. As for receiving a nomination, yes, a more competitive state or district has more applicants. But in the end, only 10 will receive a nomination from that congressman/woman or senator; and only 1 of those 10 will receive the appointment.
4. The Air Force isn't new at this. This isn't their first rodeo. Same with the senators and representatives. It doesn't matter if you have 20 or 100 applicants for a nomination; your 4.0 or 3.85 or whatever gpa and 26, 28, or 34 ACT is YOUR scores. No one else had an affect on that. Only you.
5. Competitive is RELATIVE. Representatives are based on population. Approximately 650,000 residents. So for a representative nomination, you are competing against the same amount of people as someone in wyoming, who only has one district and one representative for the entire state. Yes, a senator nomination would be a little harder in a more populated state.
6. Finally. It's relative because it depends on where you live. In one state or district, it could be difficult to get a nomination to Air Force, but a nomination to navy could be almost automatic because the navy isn't as popular there. Same with a district that is very nautical in history may have a large attraction to navy, but no one applies to Air Force or army; and getting that nomination would be easy. Or living in certain areas in California, where the military isn't popular at all. There are places like this, where you can get a nomination to all 4 academies. Air Force, navy, army, and merchant marine. No one applies there.
Bottom line..... you live where you live. You go to school where you do. There's not a thing you can do about it. So why worry about it? Worry about the things you can, like your gpa, act, sat, cfa, leadership, clubs, sports, etc. a much better use of your time and effort.