To extract some of the factors noted above and add a few more that contribute to a district’s competitiveness, noting upfront that USMMA noms differ in many respects (read their website) and USCGA is not required to use them:
- Sheer numbers of applications. A Rep can nominate up to 10 names for an available slot at the SA. At any one time, they can have 5 appointees at the SA, spread over 4 years. Some years they might submit 1 slate, for 1 spot in the upcoming class, or 2 slates for 2 spots. There is a big difference between Districts where SAs are well-known and hundreds apply, compared to a district where only 2 dozen apply for noms to one SA.
- If the 2 Senators and District Reps coordinate/collaborate to spread the wealth, by not duplicating names across any of their slates for any SAs, or directing that a candidate may receive only 1 nom, no matter how many SAs they are applying to, or some variation - this can make noms very scarce on the ground. This is the opposite end of the posts we see here every year from candidates (or their parent) who joyfully note they have 2 Senator noms and one Rep nom. Ouch. This is not something the SAs control. Each elected official is free to run their selection process as they wish.
- Individual slate competition. Are there 10 fully qualified candidates (academic/all other evaluated elements, CFA, DoDMERB) on the slate or are there 5? Those are the head-to-head competitors. No way to know how this will play out each cycle.
- How many of the nominees on the slate have obtained noms from other sources, so if the SA offers them an appointment, it could be charged elsewhere, and not to that Rep? Presidential, other service-connected, etc.
- The ranking (or not) method used by the Rep. See the link below for advanced reading on numbers/sources of noms, slate ranking methodologies, how other nominees on a slate might be offered an appointment but those are not charged to the Rep but to a nom source controlled by the SA, etc.
- Relative awareness and popularity of one SA compared to others. I would venture to say the Northeast corridor states have some fiercely competitive districts in certain areas for certain SAs, duplicated across the country in other areas. MD and Northern VA seem to be hotbeds of USNA nom apps, for example.
Finally, there is not one dang thing you can do about it, because there are enough variables each year to make estimating competitiveness a regression analysis nightmare.