If you go and look at the past annual appointment threads for the last several classes, you will see the rough bell curve of appointments mentioned above.
Much also depends on the “nom buckets” in which he is competing. If he has a Presidential nom, only 100 appointments can be charged to that nom source, so his competition is everyone else (likely more than 100) who has that nom. Maybe they haven’t gotten to the slate(s) from his Senators or Representative, if he has those noms. Those “buckets” have to be resolved. If he does not “win” one of those slates and land the appointment charged to the elected official, he now goes into the big national bucket of every other fully qualified candidate with an elected official nom, from which USNA can choose other appointees, charged to nom sources they control.
It’s a big puzzle to assemble every year, and each SA has its own methodology, with appointments flowing from early fall into April, then May for prepsters, late medical waivers, etc., and even into June with the last trickle.
USNA also doesn’t typically tell candidates if they are fully qualified. CFA is obvious for athletic, as is DoDMERB Q or waiver. USNA does not usually let a candidate know if they have been qualified academically/scholastically/other evaluated stuff. A LOA usually implies that, but they are rare. The SAs are roughly similar but not identical in how they score candidates.
It is indeed a waiting game.