DOD Budget cuts

[LineInTheSand]

I agree that ROTC will likely see a reduction before the SA do. The reasons? Who knows? You're presuming logic plays a part in the decision making process. Talk about a stretch.

The reason? Showtime never produced a film detailing the rivalry between AROTC and NROTC flag football programs.

 

[Packer]

That's the key. USMA ordered it, and once in the system, the AFA will accept that DoDMERB physical, they will not order another physical. The same is true for ROTC. ROTC will use the results from the physical ordered by another source.

In your sons case the AFA did not order it. Not every candidate applies to multiple SAs. Our DS only applied to AFA and AFROTC. AFA ordered it and AFROTC accepted the results.

If I recall correctly how MullenLE explained it regarding charging the branch for it, if the candidate was applying to multiple services the branch they selected would be charged. If the candidate was not accepted to any of the branches, the branch that ordered it would be charged.

This makes sense for why the AFA has elected to hold off on sending candidates for DoDMERB until they are deemed competitive. 10K open packets, but only less than 50% will receive noms. That would be a huge fiscal burden to send all 10K for their physical. When our DS went through it back in 07 for 08. He received his ALO letter on June 27th, and hid DoDMERB request on July 5th. He didn't get his 1st nom until Oct.

Maybe. DoDMERB does not supply USAFA or any other academy/ROTC until they request it. They obviously requested it.
It really doesn't matter anyway. They are all looking for ways to cut costs and that is the bottom line.

 

[Pima]

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at LITS post. It is funny and truthful at the same time!

Fact is we have our AFROTC cadet who just found out today he will be going to Laughlin AFB for UPT. We are as any parent would be, insanely proud of him, BUT I would never ever say ROTC should not take the brunt of reducing costs if it is between an SA and ROTC.

ROTC has great aspects, but if we were all to be honest, you could cut all of the scholarships offered and you would still have ROTC cadets. Scholarship recipients are not the majority, they are the minority.

You could kill the program and still have officers commissioned via OCS/OTS. The question would be ROI. ROTC is 4 yrs of training, OCS/OTS is a few months. Would the services be harmed in a negative manner by slashing ROTC to the bare bones and increasing OCS budget at the same time?

We constantly talk about how the SA cadet/mid is different than the ROTC cadet/mid. Would this not hold true for ROTC and OCS/OTS?

ROTC is going to take a hit, there is just no 2 ways around it. The question is how deep, and that will come back to the political arena.

If Obama can protect manpower the result will be more positive for them, than if he cannot protect and MOCs force him cut manpower to save hardware.

Like it or don't like it. 2012 is a big election yr. SoD Panetta will submit his budget for the DOD, but it will be our elected officials that will pass it. They hold the purse strings and because many want to be re-elected they will play the game of winning votes with promises for their personal gain.

 

[patentesq]

Not sure whether you folks saw this, but here's an article that appeared in the Army Times over the weekend attempting to paint various scenarios on this subject: http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/12/army-how-pending-defense-cuts-could-play-out-120311/

The article centers on the so-called "automatic cuts," but it should be read with a bit of skepticism. In my view, despite the seemingly foreboding character of the phrase "automatic cuts", there frankly is nothing stopping a newly elected Congress in 2013 from appropriating additional money to defense if the so-called "automatic cuts" are implemented, just as there is nothing stopping a newly elected Congress from digging deeper into the defense coffers if a compromise is struck. In that sense, the phrase "automatic cuts" really is illusory, and a lot will hang on the outcome of the November 2012 election and emerging threats to national security.

Just my $0.02.

 

[Jcleppe]

The reason? Showtime never produced a film detailing the rivalry between AROTC and NROTC flag football programs.

Now that was funny.

I can only imagine what a documentry by Ken Burns would look like.

I try not to speculate about the budget but if I had to I would think that the AROTC Battalions that were not at the Host school would be the first to be cut if cuts were to be made, just a guess though.

I have one idea where money could be saved.

Let the cadets purchase their own airline tickets to LDAC, Summer Training and CTLT and then reimburse them.

The cost of the airline ticket for my son to CTLT through the Military Travel Office was $1,165.00. The cost of the same ticket for the same flight through Expedia was $333.00. If they purchases 2000 tickets for just that flight they could save 1.6 million dollars on those flights alone. Add in LDAC for the 5600 cadets this past year and the savings could reach 3.3 million for LDAC alone. Now add the summer training savings of nearly $500,000.00 and they could save roughly 5.4 million a year just on airline tickets.

That's nearly half the scholarship budget for this year.

Of course that would make way too much sense.

 

[MemberLG]

. . . You could kill the program and still have officers commissioned via OCS/OTS. The question would be ROI. ROTC is 4 yrs of training, OCS/OTS is a few months. Would the services be harmed in a negative manner by slashing ROTC to the bare bones and increasing OCS budget at the same time? . . .

I might be showing my ignorance, but I did do a college ROTC for a year. I disagree that that ROTC is 4 years of training. When I was doing ROTC for a year, the time requirement was one MS class a week and two FTX a semester. Of course, as you go up, little more requirement. As for OCS, another unfamiliar terrority for me, but my understanding is few direct college kids, but mostly enlisted soldiers with x number of college credits. Not sure how to differentiate the training - 4 years of ROTC training vs soldier with enlisted time with a few months of OCS training. Ultimatley, all attend their officer basic courses.

There is a hidden cost to the OCS program (or used to be). OCS officers without college degrees were allow to go back to college as full time student to complete their bachelors degree while getting active duty pay.

A challenge with the OCS program might be not reducing quality while increaseing quantity.

I think one or two F35 can easily pay for for ROTC and OCS . . .

 

[Pima]

As you progress through ROTC as a cadet you will dedicate more time. DS is mentoring 2 cadets, he is in AAS, and holds a position in ROTC that requires him to write reviews.

It is no longer Lead Lab and PT. PT is at 6:30 a.m., but he has to be there at 5:30 because of leadership. He has to be there for his cadets assigned to him as a mentor in their time of need and guidance through the C100/200 yrs. His unit requires him to submit each semester a review from a POC for the GMC under his command.

This is on top of his collegiate requirements.

I think one or two F35 can easily pay for for ROTC and OCS . . .

No argument from me! Shocking right?

Now let's flip it to reality. The 35 employs many US civilians regarding building that plane. Money they spend in their local economy, i.e. Wal-Mart, Applebees, housing, buying new cars, etc.

Cut the program and you increase the unemployment rate. Cut a 35 and GE will have less orders for the light bulbs in the airframe. That means they will need less employees, and if is in Timbucktoo it will have an impact on their economy.

Start thinking about what goes into an airframe. Parachutes...nylon subcontractor. Computers...Silicon Valley. Seats made of leather. Glass, steel, paint, etc, etc, etc, etc.

The 35 will also employ sim instructors for FTU around the country.

Now tell me how ROTC impacts the economy? So a ROTC unit is closed down, and cadets will go x-town. The AD members will make little to no impact on the economy.

The cadet losing a scholarship will impact their family, but there is still OCS/OTS. People not in the military, even as a cadet will not lose their job.

When we remove our personal beliefs and start to understand the economical impact of killing any hardware project or personnel we understand why even our President's party will fight against him if in their district hardware means more than personnel or vise a verse.

Do you live in an area that has a military base/post or tied to a military project?

Obama will have an issue with MD/VA if he cuts either. Obama forced contractors to convert to GS positions. Cutting personnel from the military will also hurt in this area.

People would be fools to believe if he is not playing the political game and counting red/blue/purple. JMPO, DOD will be a ping pong issue for 12.

 

[Packer]

Now let's flip it to reality. The 35 employs many US civilians regarding building that plane. Money they spend in their local economy, i.e. Wal-Mart, Applebees, housing, buying new cars, etc.

Cut the program and you increase the unemployment rate. Cut a 35 and GE will have less orders for the light bulbs in the airframe. That means they will need less employees, and if is in Timbucktoo it will have an impact on their economy.

Start thinking about what goes into an airframe. Parachutes...nylon subcontractor. Computers...Silicon Valley. Seats made of leather. Glass, steel, paint, etc, etc, etc, etc.

The 35 will also employ sim instructors for FTU around the country.

Now tell me how ROTC impacts the economy? So a ROTC unit is closed down, and cadets will go x-town. The AD members will make little to no impact on the economy.

The cadet losing a scholarship will impact their family, but there is still OCS/OTS. People not in the military, even as a cadet will not lose their job.

When we remove our personal beliefs and start to understand the economical impact of killing any hardware project or personnel we understand why even our President's party will fight against him if in their district hardware means more than personnel or vise a verse.

Do you live in an area that has a military base/post or tied to a military project?

Obama will have an issue with MD/VA if he cuts either. Obama forced contractors to convert to GS positions. Cutting personnel from the military will also hurt in this area.

People would be fools to believe if he is not playing the political game and counting red/blue/purple. JMPO, DOD will be a ping pong issue for 12.

Pima, I can't disagree with anything you said but it is a disturbing viewpoint. If something can't stand on its own merit but we keep it around to give people something to do it sure starts sounding like socialism.

Note, I am not saying the F35 is without merit.

 

[Pima]

I don't disagree with you Packer, but let's face it the DOD is not the only govt dept that has some form of socialism.

Think about our stimulus projects where we spent millions to study cow gas. We spent millions for a bridge to literally nowhere! We spend millions to pay farmers to plant certain products and than pay them not to sell their crops. We give students access to federal loans for college with the theory that they will get a better job, but now the new plan is to tithe those loans to their salary and if it isn't paid off in 10 yrs all will be forgiven.

IMPO none of these expenditures are wise investments from a taxpayer's perspective, just as many believe the cost of the 35 is not a sound investment.

However, that is what elections are for, so you, I and every eligible American can voice their desires.

As I said before as easy as it may seem to be to cut a base, or hard ware or personnel, many other hands will get in the pot and create problems. The truth is no MOC in their district will support something if it impacts their district. No Sen. will support it if it is their state.

Now you have elected officials pointing to other areas and take from there instead. They in turn point to something else, so on and so forth until the circle is complete.

The easiest and fastest way to see savings is to hit ROTC. It will also allow more control over long term strategic planning for manpower needs.

Look at AFROTC. They are announcing today the results from their Dec. board. Now fast forward 2 yrs. These same cadets will be up for SFT, and currently 55% go, the remaining 45% can be placed into C250 or released. Is it truly a wise investment to spend 18K a yr on tuition, @2K for books, @5K for stipends, totaling @43K and say you didn't make the cut, have a nice life.

Maybe it would be wiser to convert the scholarships to 2 yrs using attending SFT as their 1st cut, knowing that whether or not they offer the cadet a scholarship, they will be commissioning.


Yes, 45K is a drop in the bucket, but every drop at this time matters. If we are to solve this problem, and want to be honest everything, including hardware must be on the table.

Just like for retirees tri-care premiums must increase. We are all living longer, and if we do not address this issue the deficit will just become larger.

We may have to revisit the GI Bill.

They may have to change separation pay for those that are RIF'ed.

We may have to close more bases/posts.

Pulling 65 BN a yr for the next ten yrs on top of the 45BN originally planned will not be an easy feat. Everyone will feel the pain in some form or another.

 

[SamAca10]

As you progress through ROTC as a cadet you will dedicate more time. DS is mentoring 2 cadets, he is in AAS, and holds a position in ROTC that requires him to write reviews.

It is no longer Lead Lab and PT. PT is at 6:30 a.m., but he has to be there at 5:30 because of leadership. He has to be there for his cadets assigned to him as a mentor in their time of need and guidance through the C100/200 yrs. His unit requires him to submit each semester a review from a POC for the GMC under his command.

It's true that as you become more senior you have more responsibilities and therefore more time invested in the program. I think what that poster was saying is that compared to SA's and OCS, ROTC has the least amount of immersion into the military.

At the SA's you pretty much are wearing a uniform every day, versus the once a week thing at civilian schools. Add to that 12 week summer training programs and you have someone who's more exposed to the culture of a service.

OCS is pretty obvious, since the officer candidates are stuck there anywhere from 10 to 17 weeks.

I think the thing that is different with ROTC is that one can choose how involved they want to be while SA cadets don't get that option. But I think an average SA cadet has more exposure to their military service than a ROTC cadet that actively participates in their unit.

 

[-Bull-]

I would slightly disagree, not in the fact that ROTC has the least immersion in Big Army life, but if I'm only supposed to wear a uniform once a week, someone is lying to me. MSI's and MSII's have PT three times a week (4 hours). MSIII's have PT 5 days a week (unless they are scoring a 300 on the APFT). MSI's spend most of their class/lab time in a classroom (3-4 hours). MSII's are in the classroom for ROTC 3 hours a week and in the field 3-5 hours a week. MSIII's are in the field roughly 6-9 hours a week not including night Land Nav which is an extra 5 hours every other week. MSIII's also have classes about once every week before PT for 1.5 hours. MSIV's are everywhere, all the time.

This is just the basic time requirement for a contracted cadet. This doesn't include mandatory study hall or anything required of a cadet for their job within the BN. Or school work.

I've also noticed, that while SA cadets spend exponentially more time in a uniform, a lot less emphasis is placed on tactics, except in the summer (which is expected since you all are burdened with heavy course load and duties).

 

[Pima]

I think the thing that is different with ROTC is that one can choose how involved they want to be while SA cadets don't get that option.

Who ever told you that a cadet can choose how involved they want to be in a unit was bold face lying.

I know for our DS he has mandated volunteer hours every semester. This is not an option...you will do it. That includes things like being at football stadium Sunday morning at 7 to clean it up until noon, twice a semester. Counting hours it means 80 hours over 4 yrs and that is before other mandates like running in the Susan G. Kolhman race on a Saturday. Or if you attend a school like VT or TAMU with a Corps, you will now have to be in uniform for football games and Corp duties.

It also means that you will attend the dining in and outs.

They do have the choice to join a military organization, for the AF it would be the Honor guard, Arnie Air or Angel Flight. They do have the choice to attend GMC nights. However, that is about where it starts and ends for them.

Understand, a smart cadet knows how the OML works for them, and if they want that highly desired career field, they will be involved. DS probably spends at least 30 hrs a week on top of his academics with some aspect of ROTC. Some times his ROTC day starts at 5:30 in the a.m. and ends at 9:30 p.m. with classes of course in between.

As far as the immersion, yes OCS attends for 10 to 17 weeks, or in total, including weekends. The OCS cadet will spend no more than 119 days and 70 days at the min.

Now start looking at the ROTC cadet.

For AFROTC SFT is @ 30 days, living, breathing, eating AF life 24/7. That places the difference between them down to 40-79 days. I am going to assume LDAC and summer cruises are just as long, maybe longer.

Now add in as -Bull- and I stated the ROTC hours.

MSI/C100 7 hours a week or 1 business day. Multiply that by 30 weeks = 30 days.
~~~ Difference now is 10-39 days in OCS favor

MSII/C200 10 hrs a a week, I will still call it 1 duty day. That is again 30 days.
~~~ Difference is now at the top 9 days in OCS favor for "immersion"

MSIII/C300 16 hrs a week, 2 duty days. That makes it 60 days.
~~~ Difference is now +50 for ROTC

MSIV/C400 are at least 20 hrs, 2 duty days. Again 60 days.
~~~ Difference is now 110 days in ROTC's favor.

Hence, the ROTC cadet has at least 2X more in Immersion than an OCS cadet. That is before we go back and add in those volunteer hours, or hours being in a test center for their AFOQT or TBAS.

It is also before we add in the hours for Honor Guard or Arnie Air. Both require at least 5 hours per week. 150 hours a yr = 18 duty days in a yr, and 72 days over their college career. These organizations also have mandated community service, which I will not include for this purpose.

Sure, they don't have to join them, but it is an exposure to another aspect of the military. It also is something you will want for your OML.

OML's at least for the AF has a big chunk of the score assigned to the CC's rating/ranking of the cadet. Think about it I can only give 1, number 1. Do you think the CC is going to give it to the cadet that has the exact same gpa, PFT scores, AFOQT, etc, but they do just what is expected/required of them. Or will they give it to the cadet that is a military organization, one that is mentoring cadets after duty hours, one that even as a POC pops their face in for GMC night?

That is the system for AFROTC. Those little things start to matter when the Commander has to decide who to support. There will always be a number 1 and 2 to decide from, just like there will always be those that fight not to be classified as the bottom cadet.

You shouldn't jump to a leap that ROTC in college is like JROTC in HS. It isn't.

In the end these cadets that are contracted endure 4 yrs. of training, granted with a slow integration, but still is a commitment to hang for 4 yrs with 3 of those yrs not knowing where you will land.

OCS cadets enter with their follow on. They can play the mind game of counting down and saying the end is in sight.

Now back on topic. I still believe if it comes down to a budget crunch, they will look at ROTC prior to OCS because it is more cost effective, and that is where we are now.

OCS also has an easier ability for the military to control manpower. ROTC will have a drop out rate, and it typically remains at a certain rate, but they can't project it like OCS.

It is not because OCS turns out officers any better or worse than ROTC. Just like attending an SA equates into them being better than ROTC or OCS. It is all about the fact it is a viable solution when it comes down to choosing between diverting funding from AD personnel to ROTC and not diverting the funds by increasing OCS as a source of commissioning.

 

[Packer]

Who ever told you that a cadet can choose how involved they want to be in a unit was bold face lying.

Perhaps a bit harsh. There are minimum requirements in ROTC and there are minimum requirements at an Academy. The minimums are higher at an academy. If one is a minimalist at an academy they will at least commission. In AFROTC a minimalist may not commission and AROTC they will likely be in the Reserves.

 

[dunninla]

A minimalist in ROTC can still commission, but might not get enough OM points to commission Active Duty. 40% of Cadets commission either Reserves or Guard (15% by choice, 25% by a low position on the OML). Even if a mininalist withing the Battalion has a 3.7 GPA, and a 300 score on the APFT, they are likely to get lower scores at LDAC, and on their PMS evaluations (2 of them).

However, in principle I do agree that the military enculturation at ROTC is nothing at all like at the Academies... not even close. I have a nephew who graduated the Naval Academy last May, and a DD in ROTC currently. The differences were discussed in detail with an eye to understanding which environment would best suit my DD. But those differences are OK as far as the DoD is concerned .. what he ROTC cadet/mid missed in military enculturation, he/she picked up in learning to navigate and solve problems amongst civilians ... a skill that becomes critical as an officer reaches O3 and above.

 

[SamAca10]

Perhaps a bit harsh. There are minimum requirements in ROTC and there are minimum requirements at an Academy. The minimums are higher at an academy. If one is a minimalist at an academy they will at least commission. In AFROTC a minimalist may not commission and AROTC they will likely be in the Reserves.

ROTC is, by it's definitition a reserve officer's training program.

As an O-3 once said to me, "OCS is the water faucet that the service's use to control the amount of officers it needs." If things are getting tight, that faucet gets turned off as we're seeing right now.

Pima what I meant was that the ROTC committment doesn't compare to that of an SA where you're exposed to the enviornment 24/7. I'm not bashing ROTC, it's just that you're involvement is more variable than that at an academy.

 

[Pima]

As an O-3 once said to me, "OCS is the water faucet that the service's use to control the amount of officers it needs." If things are getting tight, that faucet gets turned off as we're seeing right now.

I concur it is the faucet and I am not debating that because as I have stated before the AF turned off that faucet a couple of yrs ago for non-rated, actually slowed it to a trickle from 2 boards a yr to 1, with less accepted.

Any SA will have more experience because it is an SA, there is no disagreement from me. However, especially cadets/mids attending SMC's their lives are very sim. to an SA, but they are in ROTC.

The real issue will still come back to cutting costs, and between SAs, ROTC and OCS the fastest way to save a large amount of money is to downsize ROTC. The problem is it will still have a delay of several yrs., so for now the way to start is cancelling future OCS boards, and starting even for FY 13 offering less scholarships, which means until 17 the OCS would bear the brunt. After 17 through 23, they can open OCS up because they can close some of the ROTC units.

This is exactly what they did in the 90's. The amount of AROTC units in the 90's were cut drastically and to this day they are still hovering around the 1990's number.

Overall 39% of all officers are ROTC grads. For the Army it is @55%. The least amount is @10% for the Marines. AF is 41% and Navy is 20%. Now if you look at from reducing ROTC hosts. The Navy has 150 colleges that offer ROTC, whereas the AF has only 77 schools. I believe Army has @ 250 dets. Combine all of them together they have close to 500 units. Start doing the math, and you can quickly see how large those budgets will be, and from a DOD pov, every branch will feel the pain. It will be up to the individual branch to determine if converting a host college to a non-host is the best option when it comes to saving costs.

Just saying ROTC has some fat on it that they can afford to cut, whereas, SA's and OCS may not.

Of course for the AF they may decide to chop guard units, since they too cost a lot of money to maintain. There are 5 A-10 guard units, that is a lot of units for an A-10.

 

[goldenlion]

hypothetical...closing ROTC unit process

So if they do have to eliminate a ROTC, what is the process? I'm assuming that this has happened in the 90's. Do the students on scholarship transfer to a different school? Or do they close it down over a 4 year time frame and stop admitting a new class?

Just curious what the process may be. Thanks.

 

[Pima]

In the 90's it was a 4 yr process, or at least for the AF it was. They just stop admitting new cadets to the program at the school and started sending them to the new host college. If I recall correctly current cadets were also allowed to opt to go to the new host college as an x-town cadet. Most won't do that because it is easier to roll out of your bed at 5 to be there for 5:30, than to drive or train it cross town.

A big reason for it to take yrs is that ROTC rents the offices from the campus, so they already may have a long term lease which they must pay out anyway. They also have AD members who would be forced to PCS. By doing it in a slow manner, it is just attrition.

If you look at UMDCP, cadets come as far away as WV, and as close as DC. There really isn't a lot of wiggle room to cut that AFROTC unit. I believe JHU also is a part of their unit, commuting for some of these cadets is about an hour each way.

I wouldn't concern myself with it right now because this is just speculation based on what they did historically if the worst case scenario happens.

Additionally, as I stated before, what will be more likely is they will cut the amount of scholarships offered because even just 1 less scholarship at a college saves them money. That was also the big thing they did in the 90's. Scholarships have always been the minority, but back than it was the rarity. They also cut the cadet if they were not carrying their min gpa. They may decide to amp up the gpa. Look at SFT, the avg tech cadet selected had a 3.0 min. The min is 2.8. If not selected you are cut, so why not increase the gpa anyway? By doing so you will cut them faster. Understand you can have a 2.5 as an AFROTC cadet, you just won't be contracted.

It is only pennies, but like anyone with a checkbook, and knowing you are going to have less money coming in, you start looking at the pennies, you start saying if I cut here, I can keep this or that, the items you place a higher priority on for your needs. You are not about to sell your car, but you may decide to increase your insurance deductible to save costs. You may decide to get rid of your land line phone, and keep your cell. They are just pennies, but pennies become dollars.

 

[patentesq]

goldenlion, you raise a good question, but I don't think it is helpful to contemplate hypotheticals, because they rarely happen and no one can say what will happen. My perception is that DoD rarely, if ever, moves abruptly. If anything, it is usually the front end of the 4-year pipeline that is most affected. We are starting to see that slow process begin now, with higher numbers of scholarship awards going to in-state schools. But there was also talk last year about placing emphasis in the so-called "top-tier" schools as well. Also, there is a trend to throw more dollars to computer-science types, consistent with the perception of what our national security threats will look like in the coming decade. In my view, these are long-term trends that will take years to implement and likely won't materially affect current scholarship students (except for perhaps diminished active-duty slots, more IRR placements, more forgiveness of service obligations, and diminished training opportunities like Airborne slots, etc. for current cadets).

DoD has a VERY sophisticated budget team and does not take "reactionary" approach to things.

Incidently, the DoD is apparently not preparing for sequestration in the President's February 2012 budget (so proposed FY13 will not include so-called "automatic cuts"). I am aligned with those who believe that Congress will, ultimately, do its job (although likely not until the election).
http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=8468057&c=FEA&s=CVS

EDIT: XPost with Pima: She dealt with the issue effectively; sorry for wasting electrons.

 

[Pima]

Patentesq, you are 1000% correct the military in this case cannot turn on a dime because the system they operate under is burdensome.

It takes yrs to see cost cutting initiatives to really show up. Back in the 90's when they did the BRAC it was multiple yrs from start to finish because every one was fighting for their installation in their area, and a lot of backdoor winking occurred. That is why when the 2nd BRAC came around they implemented different controls.

Even so, we lived on a base that got hit. It took them 3 yrs to shut it down from the day it was announced. At the same time the AF announced it would boneyard the 111. That took 5 yrs more.

The Quadrennial review which was submitted in 2010 to Congress, actually was being worked on at the Pentagon back in 05.