Ok so I guess he went through admission boats and now he's waiting for office of admission. Is this good or bad??
There are of course exceptions to everything; and as you point out, your file - as a college re-applicant needing to submit first semester grades - was not complete until early January.
When I was a BGO in MD for two consecutive candidate cycles, they were figuring out slates into late March/early April. I had close ties to the RD and other Admissions Officers who I communicated with on a consistent basis. I don't think your assumption is correct, specifically if there are 70 college candidates who are typically appointed, that potentially would be 70 slates undecided -- that is 16%. Furthermore, Admissions has to decide which NAPSTERs would win slates vs. getting SECNAV nominations....the process of deciding slates isn't easy and quick. This is just 2 examples...Presidential Nominations, LOA recipients, etc. I doubt in one month this has somewhat been figured out, given it wasn't 3-4 years ago.
REGARDLESS, candidate and parents should not worry about this. Sit back and relax, honestly! YOU CAN'T CONTROL THE PROCESS FORWARD!!! Why fret? It is what it is.
A pretty safe assumption is that candidates who had everything completed and in by January 1, 2015 and have not received an offer of appointment as of this date are now dealing either with the National Pool or have already been deemed tentatively unqualified for appointment.
Best case scenario: He's waiting for Admissions to get information on the last of the qualified applicants on his slate from the Admissions Board (if he is on an equal and competitive nomination slate). Things can move slowly - particularly if someone on his slate is a college re-applicant.Ok so I guess he went through admission boats and now he's waiting for office of admission. Is this good or bad??
My point is....this isn't a safe assumption.
The "safe" assumption is that some of the appointments have been offered and there are some still to be offered. Nothing more or less. Who knows how many slates Admissions has or hasn't gotten to? I certainly don't know, nor do I know how many offers have already been made.
Interesting. So assuming they didn't get bounced onto the TWE club, where does the average applicant stand?I am not sure if I did my math correct, but I think it is about 8% for a MOC-nominated candidates and 2% for other nominations.
FQ Candidates = ~3,200
Offers = 1,400
# of MOC, Pres, SECNAV, and others = ~950
Leftover = 250
National Pool Size = 2,250 (from #FQ-950)
% in national pool = 250/2,250
National pool must come from 75% of MOC alternates and others is 25%, so multiply (% in national pool by either .75 or .25).
I think this might make sense, but I am NOT a math major.
FQ Candidates = ~3,200
Offers = 1,400
# of MOC, Pres, SECNAV, and others = ~950
Leftover = 250
National Pool Size = 2,050 (from #FQ-950) - 200 (who declined)
% in national pool = 250/2,050
National pool must come from 75% of MOC alternates and others is 25%, so multiply (% in national pool by either .75 or .25).
9% for a MOC-nominated candidates and 3% for other nominations.
bubalma,
Well, maybe there is hope for a majority of candidates in the coming days -- either way. I guess we will know shortly.
Update to the previous numbers....200 should of been taken out (difference between class size -- 1200 and offers -- 1400) of the overall national pool since they declined. The number of the class size doesn't change -- ~1200 (~950 of which do not come from national pool)
...and on a positive note, if 250 come from national pool and about 10% participate here.... then 25 "still in the game" here will get national pool appointments, assuming they haven't gone out yet.
Is my crazy mom math right? Bottom line is wait, have plan B&C ready, post crazy mom math here and act normal at home.
We will keep your "crazy mom math" a secret and keep our collective fingers crossed for all those waiting on the BFE!