Interesting Service Academy Data: Numbers vs. Numbers

D

dreamwiz

Member
Joined
Oct 24, 2019
Messages
68
The unique thing in this forum since June 2006 is that we can see many people's real lives throughout the process after the process.
Although the process is the same as the previous year's, we can see many people's dramas! It's amazing!

I am feeling that these real lives and dramas have been dissolved(?) in DATA.
The following is a summary of all messages and threads (i.e., DATA) to five service academies.

No.Service Academy# of Messages# of ThreadsAve # of Message in threadMessage % in total
1USNA135,80011,3001234%
2USAFA114,8008,5001429%
3USMA88,1008,7001022%
4USCGA30,5002,800118% (Tied)
4USMMA30,5002,700118% (Tied)
Total399,70034,000-
As shown above, USNA is a king of the data in terms of # of threads AND messages.


Interestingly, the average number of messages in each thread is similar except USAFA with 14!

Now, we can raise some questions so that we (candidates) can get some insightful comments/advice from BGO, ALO, FFR, or Ret. officers, alumni, etc.

1. Why are there more messages/threads to USNA than USMA or USAFA?
2. Are more young Americans interested in Sea (navy) rather than Ground (army) or Sky (air force)?
3. Are there any influencing facts supporting the above trends?

I always wondered whenever I saw the numbers......
I got a total of 4 nominations including a principal nom, an LOA and an LOE. Since I applied to multiple SAs, I "might" face a tough moment to make a decision affecting my long-term path to serve this great country.

What're your insights for the DATA above?

Happy Holidays.
 
More rotary-wing aircraft parents like me just plain like the ocean I guess. LOL.

I like people that look at numbers because data tells stories. But these numbers, although nicely aggregated, might fall in to stuff I would accusingly call out my former employees as numbers that were “garbage in, garbage out”. I dealt with hard numbers a lot in my past but these have a human element involved that adds all sorts of variables I’ve never been forced to look at. I like your analytical mind and the numbers on the forum home page beg to be looked at but I don’t know if just these numbers alone can tell the story.

I will stop now. Keep using that brain!
 
I think in order to tell the story this data needs to be broken down further. The number of posts per Academy per year would yield some insight. In the beginning this forum was very heavy on the USNA side with a large majority of posters as well as staff being USNA-related. My guess would be that is why the Navy totals are higher. I think that data would shown a leveling-off to more equal postings in the latter years.

Stealth_81
 
Interesting even if it is "garbage data". Thanks to our OP!

USMMA has no summer programs.
USCGA has no nominations.
How about # of threads/messages divided by # of applicants?
CVW program casts a much wider net than FVE or Cadet Overnight.
"Misfiled threads", such as "I have a Nom!" "Principle nom today!" etc that should be in Nominations?
Any insights from a search by Members/Staff members/moderators with most messages/highest reaction score/most points?
You will have "outliers" every year who post multiple new threads, so you might throw out the "tails"? Someone correct me here.
Agree would be interesting to see # posts by application cycle, but then summer program threads overlap.

I'd love to see a thread in USMMA "Where's my Mid?" with posts, stories, and comments from first-hand and parent-hand about Mids on Sea Year.
 
I wonder if a reason why Navy gets more interest is because they have chances to service after graduation in the air, sea or ground. If high school students don't know yet which one would be better (like my DS), they might look more at Navy.
 
.
There is real data here ... not garbage data.

Inquisitive minds can start looking at a lot of relationships .... doing Frequency tables, Histograms, KDEs .... and then look at particular Features and do the prob density analysis, “Lobedness” of the feature

You look for trends then start performing some simple Linear Diagnostics, leverage, influence, ANOVA, ANCOVA, 1-way, 2-way Group analysis, and on and on.

Power analysis for sample significance. Then get in to Principle Component analysis and GLMs, and other fancy Models and Kernals.
.
 
Last edited:
I'm guessing there is correlation with the number of admitted cadets. Here is a quick table of most recent data plus the message ratio.

# AdmittedClassRatio to TotalMessage Ratio
USNA
1181​
2023
29%​
34%​
USMA
1210​
2022
30%​
22%​
USAFA
1147​
2023
28%​
29%​
USMMA
280​
2023
7%​
8%​
USCGA
279​
2023
7%​
8%​
4097​

These numbers seem to match number of admitted pretty close with the exception of USNA (high) and USMA (low).

Conclusion - Navy are a chatty bunch and WP'ers are the silent type. LOL
 
The conclusion is obvious, isn't it?

USNA attracts a very insecure bunch that feels the constant need to plead "chance me."

Or USMA candidates, the relative troglodytes that they are, haven't yet figured out this interweb thing.

Or that like many great things in life, the story cannot be reduced to mere numbers -- even if they're disguised as statistics -- but is best told by words. The very words that we read here everyday.

Whatever the case, we're blessed to have SAF! Of that, I'm 100% sure!
 
oatsguy said:
I'm guessing there is correlation with the number of admitted cadets. Here is a quick table of most recent data plus the message ratio.
Click to expand...
Beat me to it. To draw any real conclusions from this you need to consider the number of cadets at each academy.
 
MidCakePa said:
like many great things in life, the story cannot be reduced to mere numbers -- even if they're disguised as statistics
Click to expand...

There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.
— Benjamin Disraeli, 1804-1881, British Prime Minister

MidCakePa said:
Whatever the case, we're blessed to have SAF! Of that, I'm 100% sure!
Click to expand...

Couldn't agree more. For me the biggest value over the years was having a place to get questions answered without asking my DS. He would have read my inquiries as meddling.
 
.
Well .... I don’t like the lies and damn lies quote. Never did. Numbers don’t lie and models are only as good as your numbers, and modeling tools we have today are pretty damn good.
.
 
Situational probability/statistics:

Cows kill more people than coyotes every year. However, I suspect that if we rounded up thousands of coyotes and chased them with dogs and atvs into tight, stinky pens, that statistic might change. And coconut trees and vending machines kill more people than lightning, maybe because the former two things are commonly vigorously shaken by angry humans.


As with everything you have to take account of the situation. Statistics are almost always influenced by the situation.

Interesting facts though. Maybe the army has not yet figured out how to use a “computer?”
 
OP, interesting statistics. I'm curious about admissions data comparing the different SA's - # started application, # qualified, # appointed, # in entering class. I know they're out there but I haven't had the time to compile the numbers. Would anyone know of a source?
 
I see that there are some common words & contexts in the responses.

*Navy: Chatty, Techie, etc.
*Army: Hermit, Silent, Non-techie, etc.

The above interests me a lot. :)

I had a great opportunity for overnight stays at both institutions but didn't see distinguishable stuff between midshipmen and cadets (both was great!). Thanks for all the good comments.
 
Capt MJ said:
@Wishful

You’re kind to say so. I gotta watch that “prolific” and keep my bacon thread posts under control.
Click to expand...
Hello ma'am,
Your reply led me to another thread about bacon. It's amazing to read many writeups in there.

I agree with "Wishful." You have impacted many young men and women who are willing to serve the country in a very positive way.

"The best leaders live by examples!"

Whenever I read your insightful and thoughtful advice in SAF, I can't help but think of the motto above. Thank you!
 
Whilst Capt MJ's prolificness (fifth highest number of posts) is impressive it is their impact that is truly extraordinary. Her reaction score is fifty percent higher than the second highest reaction score.

As an anecdote, I was amazed with the level of detail she provided when answering a question I once posed and then enjoyed reading the follow-up posts it triggered.
 
It isn’t just her knowledge. There are other people on here have her knowledge.

She is without a doubt the nicest person on here.

When my son is done with his career, I can only hope he turns out like her.
 
You all are most kind. I had “The Doctrine of Completed Staff Work” dripped into my veins as a JO. Apparently it marked me forever.

My father was the kindest person I have ever known, my role model for how to treat people. I admit to feeling impatient many times here on SAF, but do my best to avoid public snark - the goal is to serve. You all should know I had quite a nickname while in uniform, and it had whiffs of implacability and ruthlessness about it. She still appears on occasion.


The Doctrine of Completed Staff Work

This memorandum on completed staff work, first issued during World War II, has become the widely accepted definition of what effective staff members do.
govleaders.org govleaders.org
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top