March 8th, 2011 AROTC Board

Best wishes for all who are waiting! I went through this last year, but it was not a tough as this year, that's for sure.

In looking through the posts I think there is real merit to the idea that they are issuing the notifications by alphabet within four groups. There have been a lot of A-C names, but I have seen none from D-F. There has been G-H but I have seen none after that. Similarily, I have seen no one with a W last name or later get a notification. That pattern backs up the poster who relayed this information from CC at the begining of the process.

As Patentesq said, no one has been able to figure this out before (and the same is true for last year when we all tried to figure it out). However, I think CC may have, in this case, actually communicted how they are doing it. And with all the manual processes for such a great amount of work...the explanation makes sense!

If this model is correct, they are doing around 2 "normal" letters per day (some letters are more popular than others). A, B and C are all popular letters and it appears they are into the Cs but not yet the Ds after 1.5 days. My guess is that it will be Monday for the Ds, Monday and Tuesday for the Es and they should wrap up on Tuesday with the Fs. A similar pattern will probably play out for the other three groups.

Based on this slow pace, I'm speculating that they are entering a lot more scholarships than the prior two boards (that would be good news!). This pace seems similar to last year's November/January boards that stretched from Thursday through Mon/Tue. If they held back in the first two boards this year then they have been left with a lot to issue in this, the last board.

I think there is still a lot of good news to come next week. Good luck.
 
leapyear said:
But I still have not heard any "K"s...we still have hope!!
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Go K's.........Go K's:cool: Don't know if I put much merit in the alphabet theory yet, but I'll play along:thumb::biggrin: There has to be some sort of system...Any cryptologist's out there that are good at cracking obscure patterns?:smile:
 
I'm a data analyst but I don't have enough data points and exact times of notification to run a correlation analysis. LOL
 
yesmar said:
I'm a data analyst but I don't have enough data points and exact times of notification to run a correlation analysis. LOL
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:shake: The search for a pattern is a great distraction you must admit. If nothing else its a great way to kill a cold rainy day.
 
mwrc9 said:
From Louisville, Ky. Son was capt. of the football and wrestling teams and now rugby team. Quiet, leader type who is also alot of fun. Solid academics, none of his gang is attending UK, and we discussed and both felt it would be beneficial to be with another Cadet so there are a 2nd set of ears to hear what is being said so nothing gets past him.:rolleyes: Will send you contact info as soon as we get med done in the next week or so.
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Unless I am mistaken there is a dorm where one of the floors has ROTC cadets only on it. And another floor that has other "types" of students. Not sure of all the details on that but it was something that the LTC we spoke to on campus mentioned.
 
Pattern as entered
C,S,B,H,P,H,H,H,C,J,J,H,M,C,G,R,N,C,H

Most common US surnames start with
J, S, W, B, D
 
Just wanted to share some experiences we've had this year over on College Confidential while waiting for a couple of (civilian) school decisions to be released. One my son was waiting on had a set time that people should have gotten the email (ie they were all sent at 6:00pm EST). However by late that evening a large number of people had formed a thread who hadn't heard yet - probably around 30 kids/parents. They went through much of this - asking about schools (ie Engineering vs. Nursing, etc.), last names, locations, etc. Finally someone was complaining that it was probably their stupid Yahoo account blocking it or something. Immediately probably 20+ other people on the thread all also confirmed that they too had Yahoo! Eventually everyone's came through but some not until the next day and all showed they had come through at the 6pm time (even though they obviously hadn't). I was impressed that they'd figured it out that quickly.

Fast forward a week later to another school - this one had allowed you to have your results sent via Fedex overnight for quicker results (they sent those on a Thursday for receipt Friday, but didn't release online until Monday). Well, starting Thursday night, people figured out that the credit cards they had used had gotten charged - and there was a difference in charge between a BFE (acceptance package) and a TWE (rejection letter)! Just amazing what you can figure out with a group of likeminded individuals! :thumb:
 
mariner116 said:
Best wishes for all who are waiting! I went through this last year, but it was not a tough as this year, that's for sure.

In looking through the posts I think there is real merit to the idea that they are issuing the notifications by alphabet within four groups. There have been a lot of A-C names, but I have seen none from D-F. There has been G-H but I have seen none after that. Similarily, I have seen no one with a W last name or later get a notification. That pattern backs up the poster who relayed this information from CC at the begining of the process.

As Patentesq said, no one has been able to figure this out before (and the same is true for last year when we all tried to figure it out). However, I think CC may have, in this case, actually communicted how they are doing it. And with all the manual processes for such a great amount of work...the explanation makes sense!

If this model is correct, they are doing around 2 "normal" letters per day (some letters are more popular than others). A, B and C are all popular letters and it appears they are into the Cs but not yet the Ds after 1.5 days. My guess is that it will be Monday for the Ds, Monday and Tuesday for the Es and they should wrap up on Tuesday with the Fs. A similar pattern will probably play out for the other three groups.

Based on this slow pace, I'm speculating that they are entering a lot more scholarships than the prior two boards (that would be good news!). This pace seems similar to last year's November/January boards that stretched from Thursday through Mon/Tue. If they held back in the first two boards this year then they have been left with a lot to issue in this, the last board.

I think there is still a lot of good news to come next week. Good luck.
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I think if you look back there have been offers to applicants with a last name that starts with a W.

The one thing that makes it very difficult trying to find a pattern is that we are all looking at just a very small sample of applicants in the scholarship pool. I would imagine that out of a possible 800 plus offers there may be as low as only 5% of those that participate on this board. Without a broader example tp draw from, we can only guess.
 
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this fits the group hypothesis

gojack said:
Pattern as entered
C,S,B,H,P,H,H,H,C,J,J,H,M,C,G,R,N,C,H

Most common US surnames start with
J, S, W, B, D
Click to expand...

A-C, G-J, M-P, R-S present
D-F, K-L, T-Z missing

Definitely groups of awards represented and also missing. Limited data set but grouped all the same. There isn't one anomaly in this (small) set.
 
Hate to mess up the pattern but my last name is da and I was notified yesterday....
 
Not sure it messes up the pattern

Chip said:
Hate to mess up the pattern but my last name is da and I was notified yesterday....
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We just turn A-C to A-Da under the assumption that they have stacks and are now entering the first of the D's. It's good information to add to the mix. Now if you said you were notified Thursday that might be of interest.
 
paradoxer said:
We just turn A-C to A-Da under the assumption that they have stacks and are now entering the first of the D's. It's good information to add to the mix. Now if you said you were notified Thursday that might be of interest.
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At least one poster "the animal" has posted a change and they were a W.

A classmate of my son had their status change yesterday, their last name started with Ea.

I hope for the sake of the A's, G's, M's and R's that this pattern does not ring true.
 
My son received his award on Thursday morning and his last name begins with E.
 
Looks like everyone has been busy today. There may or may not be a pattern with the alphabet. In the long run, it really won't matter. The main fact is knowing when the offers are completed and no new status updates are forthcoming. We are blessed with 2 ROOs who are honest and trustworthy who will give us that heads up.

It has been so difficult to leave this up to fate, but ultimately our DS/DDs will get where they are supposed to be, how they are supposed to get there. Fate, faith or whatever you need to call it is in control here to a large extent. My DS is going to college regardless and somehow after seeing just this tip of the iceburg of insanity that the military life is, he still wants to be an officer. Go figure.:wink:

I hope tomorrow is peaceful for all of us and we wake Monday to some great news for many of our kids.

Take care.:smile:
 
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