Naval Aviation Pipeline - Facing Long Delays

Bballfan said:
Any rumors on how this actually impacts service selection? They have already nicely forced us to put subs on the list by allowing us to put only one SWO option? So are they gonna take less pilots and more NFOs? Or just less in general?
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Not having subs in your preference list doesn't prevent the Navy from assigning subs.

There are always various pendulum swings to correct manning numbers. Just a few years ago, there was a mass exodus of aviation LTs who failed to select and were drummed out. Now we're short. In a couple of years, they'll be an excess that will be corrected via DH screen. Even if you select for aviation, that doesn't guarantee you will make it through Pensacola, or that you'll select for milestone/department head later on with increased numbers and heightened competition.

You can drive yourself crazy trying to calculate the chances. Hope for the best and be prepared to serve as an officer in any community until you're done with your service obligation.
 
Is there a pretty standard percentage of aviation, that don’t make it through? An estimate? Are we talking a few? Many? And what happens to them?
 
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justdoit19 said:
Is there a pretty standard percentage of aviation, that don’t make it through? An estimate? Are we talking a few? Many? And what happens to them?
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This isn't specific to the aviation community, but rather to officer communities in general. My point is the number is never standard, and will change as manning numbers and requirements change, sometimes as quickly as year-to-year. Individual communities manage their own career milestones and opportunity to select based on billets available and "community health."

If you don't select for career milestones, you will fail to select for next paygrade. In the immediate term, officers that are no longer due course may be subject to a far less desirable detailing slate (where places like Diego Garcia and Djibouti show up, or where you are given harder operational tours to "recover"), since the "good" billets tend to go to due course officers. In the long term, if you fail to select for next paygrade twice, you separate.
 
nuensis said:
This isn't specific to the aviation community, but rather to officer communities in general. My point is the number is never standard, and will change as manning numbers and requirements change, sometimes as quickly as year-to-year. Individual communities manage their own career milestones and opportunity to select based on billets available and "community health."

If you don't select for career milestones, you will fail to select for next paygrade. In the immediate term, officers that are no longer due course may be subject to a far less desirable detailing slate (where places like Diego Garcia and Djibouti show up, or where you are given harder operational tours to "recover"), since the "good" billets tend to go to due course officers. In the long term, if you fail to select for next paygrade twice, you separate.
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That makes sense. I’m wondering g about aviation school in particular. Are there people that ‘flunk out’? Maybe I’m not asking this correctly. But what happens to people that don’t pass aviation school.

Adding: so aviation SCHOOL is an OFFICER ASCENSION Training? I might be thinking of the ‘school’ part incorrectly….i think I’ve got it now, though. TY!
 
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justdoit19 said:
That makes sense. I’m wondering g about aviation school in particular. Are there people that ‘flu okay out’? Maybe I’m not asking this correctly. But what happens to people that don’t pass aviation school.
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An officer that fails initial accession training, required qualifications, or fail in initial operational assignments will go through a Probationary Officer Continuation/Redesignation (POCR) board. They will either be retained within the community, transferred to another community, or separated.

Note this is not limited to initial accession training, but rather the first 6 years. Aviatiors can earn wings in Pensacola, and then fail at the RAG, or fail to attain aircraft/mission commander qualifications at the first operational squadron. SWOs can fail to screen for DH, or receive a No-Go at the ADOC or OOD course. Nukes can fail PNEO.


I guess in the end we can all rest easy as taxpayers that the Navy is continuously screening for excellence at some level, despite news media to the contrary.
 
justdoit19 said:
That makes sense. I’m wondering g about aviation school in particular. Are there people that ‘flu okay out’? Maybe I’m not asking this correctly. But what happens to people that don’t pass aviation school.
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I think you are referring to initial flight training. Some don’t make it through primary flight training, some don’t make it through advanced flight training. The reasons, to name a few, may be aeronautical aptitude, academic, motivational, or medical. I can’t give an exact attrition number. Many years ago, after the fall of the Iron Curtain, there was a glut of Student Naval Aviators (SNAs). The military, in general, was looking to reduce manning levels post Cold War. If an SNA went to a review board with multiple flight failures, called “downs”, they were released from the Navy. There was little or no opportunity, particularly for those with reserve commissions, to remain on active duty. It was, “thank you for your service, good luck in the civilian world.” Officers that leave flight training today, as I understand it, are given an opportunity to transition to other designators – SWO, Supply, Nuke, etc. This, of course, is all based on the needs of the Navy. The Navy still needs good people.
 
justdoit19 said:
Adding: so aviation SCHOOL is an OFFICER ASCENSION Training? I might be thinking of the ‘school’ part incorrectly….i think I’ve got it now, though. TY!
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Digging into minutia here, but URL officers are all trainees until fully qualified in their warfare specialty. Their designator will change from trainee to one of the URL designators (for example, 1160 is a SWO trainee, 1110 is a qualified SWO).

SWOs and submariners earn their pins after BDOC/OOD PH1/1st tour billet training (for SWO) or NNPTC/Prototype/SOBC (for subs) followed by a rigorous 12-18 month qualification process. Aviators/NFOs will earn wings after flight school, but have a fresh stack of platform-specific qualifications waiting at the RAG, and then another stack of tactical qualifications waiting for them at their first squadron.

The training and assessment never really ends. Getting the shiny gold pin is a special moment for all JOs, but in reality is just the first step. I've worked with plenty of full LTs, including some from the aviation community, that didn't make the cut years after initial training and still faced a POCR board. The 8 year commitment is not a two-way street--the Navy is under no obligation to keep you in the aviation community at a POCR.
 
flieger83 said:
VERY slow process.
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I work in medium-sized tech organization, and I'm always shocked at how long it takes us to pull together some new wiz-bang feature. Sometimes it takes months where I'm pretty sure I could have knocked it out in a weekend. Planning up and down the stack and communication between groups takes a lot longer than the act itself. I can only imagine at the scale of a nations military it goes even slower.
 
flieger83 said:
My "almost daughter" (very close family friend, calls me Dad #2) just completed SH/MH-60 school...

She graduated in 2018.

VERY slow process.
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I absolutely hate helicopters and won't get on one if I can help it. The Seahawk is cool though. I wouldn't say that I would be comfortable on one, but I wouldn't assume that it was going to auger in. That in itself, would make the trip much, much better. :)

Here's hoping she gets a Romeo.
 
flieger83 said:
My "almost daughter" (very close family friend, calls me Dad #2) just completed SH/MH-60 school...

She graduated in 2018.

VERY slow process.
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Whoa! That is a long time. Her classmates that went SWO or Nuke, more than likely, have already completed a long cruise. I remember a buddy sending me postcards from his ship in the Med while I was still in training. I was envious that he and others had started steaming so soon. I couldn’t wait to get “out there” and to fly operationally. I got my wish when I reported to my ship. We were underway 245 days that year with a long and short cruise. I’m certain your "AD" will find the flying callenging in her “fleet seat.” It's an exiting time for young JOs at Mach .2. Good luck to her.
 
THParent said:
I absolutely hate helicopters and won't get on one if I can help it. The Seahawk is cool though. I wouldn't say that I would be comfortable on one, but I wouldn't assume that it was going to auger in. That in itself, would make the trip much, much better. :)

Here's hoping she gets a Romeo.
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That's what she wanted...

But the FFF gave her a Sierra.
 
nuensis said:
You can drive yourself crazy trying to calculate the chances. Hope for the best and be prepared to serve as an officer in any community until you're done with your service obligation.
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Pro Tip - Instead of worrying about "chances" , focus on being the very best at whatever community you serve in. Your chances of getting what you want increases if you are the Number 1 LT in your unit. (However, being #2 or near the top doesn't always equate to getting what you want -- In Flight School, they use a "quality spread" to ensure that all the top officers don't go to on community.
nuensis said:
Digging into minutia here, but URL officers are all trainees until fully qualified in their warfare specialty
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Unless something has changed -- Student Naval Aviators and Naval Flight Officers do change their designator upon winging, even though they still have the RAG (Fleet Replacement Squadron) and a lot of in squadron PQS to complete before being "fully qualified." In the aviation world, you can be cut from the team any time, although certainly rarer after you get through the RAG.
 
Old Navy BGO said:
Unless something has changed -- Student Naval Aviators and Naval Flight Officers do change their designator upon winging, even though they still have the RAG (Fleet Replacement Squadron) and a lot of in squadron PQS to complete before being "fully qualified." In the aviation world, you can be cut from the team any time, although certainly rarer after you get through the RAG.
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No it's the same, I'm using less precise terms for generality.

You could make an argument that no officer is "fully" qualified until O5/O6 after attaining joint qualification.
 
My senior NROTC son is hearing there will be very limited spots for some of the commissioning options. Flight may be very limited due to the back up and Information warfare will have 6 from the nation chosen. If you have solid information, please provide.
 
Jarus said:
My senior NROTC son is hearing there will be very limited spots for some of the commissioning options. Flight may be very limited due to the back up and Information warfare will have 6 from the nation chosen. If you have solid information, please provide.
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USNA ands NROTC are different pools. That’s part of the difference in what you are hearing.
 
Apparently USNA sent out brigade wide email today to dispel rumors re aviation pipeline delays.

I have no specifics. Son said that those that needed the info would have it.

Also gouge is that the 2/C dinner which DS wasn’t excited about was actually pretty cool. Good camaraderie.
 
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