Here is how I figured a typical 40% chance based on data published. On Class of 2013, e.g., it is estimated as following:
Total application cases opened (for Class of 2013): 11017
Estimated applicants actually applied for nomination: 9364
Applicants who actually received Nomination (2013): 3729
3729/9364 x 100% = 40% chance on average.
Of course my estimated 85% people who open their cases actually pursued nomination could vary. The variation of this number will affect the 40% number lightly as well as year to year variation.
In a place like Nassau county, where a Congressman may get 50 applicants, and nominate 10, it's a 20% rate.
I'm from Long Island District 3, Nassau County. Yea we live in one of the most largest and most competitive districts. I'm trying to get all the paperwork and such by mid-summer, beginning of september--latest!! The only thing hindering me are the teacher recommendations and SOE's because they're difficult to reach once school is over. I wish I had started this earlier when I first got the paperwork, but what can I do now?
Let's just hope for the best and pray