Hey! Something I know about! (second hand------?maybe?).
I understand from DD that Intel service assignments go mostly to "NPQ" Mids. Every year Intel takes 2-3 Line Qualified Mids, but competition for these slots is tougher (I think) than selection into Med school Programs. Strong USNA GPA, including success in Stem courses, Lots of extra curricular stuff related to Intel, NAFAC, Debate, Brigade/Company/Squad leadership, and convincing the folks making the call that you ought to be selected out of a large and competent bunch of Mids chasing the same goal.
DD has chased one of these line Qualified Intel slots since mid-way through plebe year. Gave up a"starting position" in a sport she loves (to this day) in Oder to free up time for all that NAFAC /Debate/Company leadership stuff. Over the years at USNA she has mentioned a couple of times that things would be much easier if she wanted to fly, go subs, go SWO , Etc. She recently had a minor medical issue looked into; when I expressed concern over a possible impact to her pursuit of an Intel Slot after Graduation she said "It wouldn't make me NPQ, but if it did it would be good news for getting an Intel slot".
Looking at things from the outside-in I think:
1) An increased reliance on Special Warfare drives a need for expanding naval intel to support SW operations;
2) A massive increase in ephsysis upon Cyber Warfare, will create a requirement for more intel folks to deploy USN Cyber's work product into operations; and
3) A post sequestration move away from contracted out "intel services" toward a strengthen organic DoD Intel capability.
All three should, drive an increase in the USN, USAF, and USArmy Intel components. It wouldn't surprise me if Line Qualified Intel Service Slots bounced to 4-6-8 slots by 2023.4
But I am just a guy with a kid/DD/Mid at the USNA.
Now, maybe somebody who "Really knows" will answer your question.
Most of my classmates who ended up in Intel service selected into a "regular" line community and then did a community transfer after their initial sea tour.
I am not an Intel guy (more on this later) but I worked on a number of afloat staffs, Carrier Battle Group and Fleet Staffs and I can tell you that without a doubt,
Intel folks who had a line background had a much higher level of baseline credibility with the Commander (always a line officer!) and within the staff at large.
If my son ad wanted Intel instead of subs, I would have strongly suggested this as would my friends/classmates.
Now for my sea story: As a mid and Junior Officer, I knew next to nothing about the Intel community and at the time, their profile was much lower so few of
us knew much more about them than that there was a community. In any case, my QPR and class rank was pretty much middle of the class and I doubt that I
would have gotten much interest from them. Fast forward 25 years and I'm now in industry and, while I'd seen and worked with a bunch of Intel folks in a variety
of Active and Reserve organizations, I still considered myself to be definitely an outsider. Then my civilian boss called me in and asked me to head up a new
group that he wanted to form within our 2K employee business unit that he called "Market Research" and that I was to hire folks and get going. A year later, I
(and my people) were subsumed into our sector staff and our title changed to "Market Intelligence" where I ran the Competitive Intelligence efforts for an enterprise
of about 20K people. Among my "customers" were a retired Navy Intel Captain who I'd known for approx 30 yrs (plebe summer companymate) and a retired CIA
Division Director. They were both very happy with the intelligence that I provided to them and I know that being able to leverage my broad experience base across
the Navy and industry were a big part of my success in that arena.
was my