Here is the scoring system for rated board
FACTOR WEIGHT
RSS (Note 1) 20%
Cumulative GPA 10%
PFT 15%
FT 15%
AFOQT-N (Note 2) 40%
PCSM (Note 2) 40%
AFOQT-AA (Note 2) 40%
Notes:
1. The formula for calculating RSS and FT is (100*((1-
R/C)+0.5/C)) where R=UCR and C=Class Size
2. The PCSM is used for categorization processing if applying for
pilot and RPA. The AFOQT-N is used for categorization
processing if applying for CSO. The AFOQT-AA is used for
categorization processing if applying for ABM.
What I meant by the PCSM is every yr the amount of slots offered will vary, so thus the cut off will vary. One yr it could be 70 and the next yr it could be 90. Nobody knows because nobody knows the amount that will be offered.
In the past few yrs., it has been basically 100% for rated, which includes CSO, RPA and ABM along with pilot. I don't know what the % of those that request pilot, but get CSO, RPA or ABM.
I think you will get a rated slot, but remember it is an OML list, the lower your score the more will be placed before you on the list. Some will want something other than pilot, so again, if they have a higher score, but want CSO (eyes?) the number will change.
This is just my personal opinion, but even the past few yrs they had out the door great numbers for UPT selection, I think you will see even higher numbers for the next few yrs. There are two reasons why I think that.
1. Major airlines have not hired since 2001, and by law pilots must step out of the cockpit when they turn 62. These airlines usually hire military pilots, so if someone left in 97 at 42, they will be 57 today. Even if they were 42 in 01, they have less than a decade left. The clock is ticking loud for airlines regarding pilot shortage. We have many airline pilot friends, and the youngest we know in the airlines right now is 50. The oldest is now 59. Of course the airline pilots union wants the age to raise to 65, so who knows if it will because the FAA has to implement that rule, and anything needing govt approval usually moves at the speed of molasses in winter.
~~~ The AF is looking at you to enter in 14, it will take at least 2 yrs to get you to be operational. 3-4 yrs to get you to become an IP. That puts it at 2018. The exact same time airlines will be in a heavy hiring spree.
They are cognizant at all times about manpower needs, and pay attention to the airlines because they know that many pilots will bolt at 1 of 2 points...as soon as commitment is fulfilled or retirement.
2. The 35 is starting to come on line, and the AF ordered a lot of these airframes. Although they are replacing the 16, if they do it like they did the strike eagle with the 111's and 4's, there will be several yrs of transitioning, so both the 16 and 35 will need to have pilots. It takes yrs to get squadrons up and running because you 1st have to have an initial cadre, than that initial cadre will become instructors so they can get more pilots through the pipe line. Than they need to fill operational squadrons.
The thing is all at the same time the AF will need to maintain C status, so they will slowly close down the 16s while getting 35s on line. The Strike was in Gulf 1, right after the Gulf in 91 they started to boneyard the 4 and the 111. It took them about 5 yrs to convert everyone over.
I don't know how many squadrons the 16 has, nor how many the 35 will have, but if it is a 1 for 1, you can see how long it can take. The other reason it can take longer to convert is how long it will take for FTU. If 35 FTU is 9 months, and the 16 was only 6 months, it will be longer. Just throwing numbers, I don't know how long either training course is, but you get the jist...longer FTU the longer the 16 will remain operational.
The importance here is @94 the airlines were hiring like mad, like they will do starting in 17/18. The AF lost so many pilots, they upped the bonus to the 125K that it is now. They raised the age limit. They also granted waivers for age and vision. If you were a WSO aka CSO, and wanted to go to UPT, it was basically a 100% guarantee if you just asked for a slot.
So if my rational is right, I wouldn't worry you will get a UPT slot. Just my 0.0197548 cents so through it in a circular filing cabinet when you are done reading it.