Statistically are these # for "decline/undecided" for c/o 2027 in-line with average?

EvansinAZ

EvansinAZ

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May 29, 2020
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Wondering if the number of "will decline" + "undecided" candidates are in line with prior years about this time in the season? Seems high or about right?
As of today - about 28% for USAFA / USNA and 39% for USMA are either declining or undecided.
I suppose many are highly competitive and waiting to evaluate their options after other schools announce decisions.
 
Many people that post on here are applying to multiple service academy or ROTC options, and as they wait for responses from each application, they remain undecided. People have their first choices and if they have received multiple offers, they may wait or decline accordingly. I'd say it is pretty normal.
 
This data set is only a gnat’s eyelash-width sample of the total appointments offered to date and still to come. It’s not reliable as a jumping off point for trend or comparative analysis. I also ascribe to the school of thought that appointment posters here - whether parents or applicants - tend to be the forward-leaning type, scouring the internet for an edge or insights and being strategic. That would account for the apparent abundance of LOAs early on, because that percentage definitely doesn’t reflect the fact most cadets and midshipmen never receive a “with-conditions” LOA.

Historically, by cycle end, the appointment list will be roughly 10-15% of the entering class at the DoD SAs. That does NOT mean the percentage TODAY means anything about how many appointments have been given out. Or accepted.
 
@CaptMJ is mathematically and statistically correct. The data you can glean from the forum is anecdotal.
 
If you search around for older threads there are any number of topics that try to speculate and/or draw conclusions from numerous statistical categories. Not sure what the value of any of these are. Everyone applying to an SA doesn't participate here. What matters is if your applicant (you appear to be a parent from your other posts) is offered an appointment or not. The who/how many/when/where topics all sound like a variation of the 'what are my chances?' threads that no one here can answer. The USNA website typically indicates all candidates will be notified of their status by 4/15.
 
Back of the napkin statistics:

14,000 to 16,000 finish USNA application per year and seek nominations, so average 15,000.

535 MOC (reps and senators), each nominates at most 10 for USNA, so 5,350 MOC nominated

Guessing on this one but I give 100 nominations thru VP, Presidential, JROTC, etc. Puts nominated pool at 5,450

USNA offers 1,500 appointments

About 1,200 accept appointments.

So, 28% of the nominated pool receive appointments.

Using Capt MJ's 10-15% appointments on the SA Forums we would expect 150 to 225 on the USNA Appointment list by May 23

whew.....Bear needs another beer.
 
Alchemist said:
Back of the napkin statistics:

14,000 to 16,000 finish USNA application per year and seek nominations, so average 15,000.

535 MOC (reps and senators), each nominates at most 10 for USNA, so 5,350 MOC nominated

Guessing on this one but I give 100 nominations thru VP, Presidential, JROTC, etc. Puts nominated pool at 5,450

USNA offers 1,500 appointments

About 1,200 accept appointments.

So, 28% of the nominated pool receive appointments.

Using Capt MJ's 10-15% appointments on the SA Forums we would expect 150 to 225 on the USNA Appointment list by May 23

whew.....Bear needs another beer.
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Cheers, 🍷and, throw in the fact that some years, MOCs have more than one slate (due to Drop on request, injury DQ, poor choices, academic DQ, etc.,) and you can add more confusion to the Star Trek chess board matrix.
 
Alchemist said:
Back of the napkin statistics:

14,000 to 16,000 finish USNA application per year and seek nominations, so average 15,000.

535 MOC (reps and senators), each nominates at most 10 for USNA, so 5,350 MOC nominated

Guessing on this one but I give 100 nominations thru VP, Presidential, JROTC, etc. Puts nominated pool at 5,450

USNA offers 1,500 appointments

About 1,200 accept appointments.

So, 28% of the nominated pool receive appointments.

Using Capt MJ's 10-15% appointments on the SA Forums we would expect 150 to 225 on the USNA Appointment list by May 23

whew.....Bear needs another beer.
Click to expand...
Presidential noms alone are supposedly somewhere between 600 and 800 per year. SECNAV noms are a couple of hundred or more.
 
Alchemist said:
Back of the napkin statistics:

14,000 to 16,000 finish USNA application per year and seek nominations, so average 15,000.

535 MOC (reps and senators), each nominates at most 10 for USNA, so 5,350 MOC nominated

Guessing on this one but I give 100 nominations thru VP, Presidential, JROTC, etc. Puts nominated pool at 5,450

USNA offers 1,500 appointments

About 1,200 accept appointments.

So, 28% of the nominated pool receive appointments.

Using Capt MJ's 10-15% appointments on the SA Forums we would expect 150 to 225 on the USNA Appointment list by May 23

whew.....Bear needs another beer.
Click to expand...
My son's BGO said it's more like 15000 open an application, 5000 finish it, about 3500 are 3Q+nom. Maybe I heard wrong.
 
Navy2025 said:
My son's BGO said it's more like 15000 open an application, 5000 finish it, about 3500 are 3Q+nom. Maybe I heard wrong.
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I would doubt that the applicant pool that finished their app is only 5000.
If those who report on the forum are 15-20% of all applicants, the number that report finishing nomination apps and report their application ‘under review’ or ‘complete’ status would blow that stat out of the water.
 
Here is the class of 2024 profile, my son is 2024. Look at the nomination breakdown.

Some MOCs don’t report their slates until the due date of January 31. Why would an MOC waste a nomination on an applicant that hadn’t completed their application? Some might, but the majority won’t.

One of the questions DS was asked in 3 MOC interviews was the status of his applications.
 

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I recall a particular stat that I read a few years ago, from a couple of credible sources. (Don’t remember if the sources were SA- or MOC-related, but they passed my own discerning sniff test. Sadly, I didn’t bookmark those websites.) In any case, the stat: Of the USNA candidates that are 3Q with nom, about 40% - 45% receive offer of appointment.

So building off the document that @Heatherg21 posted above: Assume a typical plebe class of 1200. USNA’s typical yield is 85% — a stat they’re rightfully proud of — so that’s about 1,400 offers made. Which suggests somewhere between 3,100 and 3,500 were 3Q with a nom. Of course, things may have changed by now, so YMMV.
 
Now some real numbers, TY @Heatherg21. Using the supplied document:

15,700 Finish application and seek nominations.
6,615 Received nominations. 42% Win rate
1,426 Offered Appt 22% Get the golden ticket from the nominated group. So, a candidate has 1 in 5 chances if nominated and 3Q. **
1,194 Accept 18% Take the golden ticket and run with it.

** 6.5% of the nominated given an appointment were Females and 15.1% given an appointment were Males from the nominated pool.
 
I think the nominations “win rate” can be a bit jelloish, as 100% of those eligible for a Presidential nom and apply for it, will get it. Ditto other eligibility type noms. We can speculate several hundred applicants might be eligible for that nom.

The “nom bucket” competitions are an asymmetrical battlefront.

I find the number-crunching on these fascinating.
 
Heatherg21 said:
Some MOCs don’t report their slates until the due date of January 31. Why would an MOC waste a nomination on an applicant that hadn’t completed their application? Some might, but the majority won’t.
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Most MOC interviews I've been part of ask some form of this question but it is not a Pass/Fail on whether we recommend or not, it is a
glimpse into candidate motivation.
In any case, even if the MOC reports the slate at or close to the deadline, their data gathering (the interviews) seem to generally be in
Oct/Nov/Dec so it is well before the 31 Jan due date.
 
I agree with @OldRetSWO. Any trends one pulls from the Forums should be taken with a big grain of salt. The sampling size is way too small and not statistically valid. The participants are very unique and not representative of overall USNA candidate's pool. I tried playing with the CO 24 numbers but in the end the only stat I feel good with is that the CO 24 appointment rate was 9% for both Men and Women (70% Men, 30% Women) That pretty much jives with what is in official and non-official sources. Equivalent to Ivy League admission numbers.
 
Though I’ve contributed to this thread, I’m of the school that all this calculating and estimating and theorizing is, as an old boss of mine used to say, “the equivalent of contemplating your navel.”

He’d also say, after reading all the conclusions: “That and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee.” In the end, the macro-grinding of USNA’s appointment process is out of a candidate’s hands and simply not worth worrying about.
 
MidCakePa said:
Though I’ve contributed to this thread, I’m of the school that all this calculating and estimating and theorizing is, as an old boss of mine used to say, “the equivalent of contemplating your navel.”

He’d also say, after reading all the conclusions: “That and a dollar will get you a cup of coffee.” In the end, the macro-grinding of USNA’s appointment process is out of a candidate’s hands and simply not worth worrying about.
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Lol, my methodology is ‘100 pct if you get the appointment, 0 pct if you don’t’

I don’t understand statistics and probabilities.

ESPECIALLY given the intangibles that cannot be measured. And the separate nomination process. And medical, including waivers, when xxx number of waivers are allowed for some things.
 
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