That time of year again...chancing!

Pima

Pima

10-Year Member
Joined
Nov 28, 2007
Messages
13,900
As an old time poster, I get it...nerves and you want some insight, BUT before you think of starting a thread with the words CHANCE please step back 1st and ask yourself some very pointed questions.

1. Have you used the search tab?
~ IOWS looked at stats from last year, or even this yr to see what others have said to that poster?
~ What makes your chance me different compared to everyone else's chance me?
~~ Do you have something truly unique that no other poster has on their resume? Otherwise, expect the same answer from many posters....NOBODY sits on the board, and if they did they would not say anything. All you can do is apply and wait.
2. What is your TRUE goal?
~ If I said you look amazing, well for about a day that will feel great until tomorrow when you see that apptmt list included somebody from your district or state post that they got an apptmt.
~ If I said no way in Hades, would you give up all hope?
3. Take time and learn about how the apptmt system works.
~ Search tab again, or at the very least read what posters have said on other Chance Me threads.
~~ IE I have a 4.59 wcgpa... sounds great, but out of what 5.0 or 6.0? Plus, for PAR they do not use a 5.0 scale, it is a 4.5, thus, that 4.59 is not really the wcgpa they will use.
~~Additionally, nobody knows your school profile. top 15% sounds amazing, but not so much if 0% go Ivy, whereas, another Chance Me poster may come from a HS where 25% go Ivy, and that is strong.
~~ Same with if you don't include your state. VA is insanely competitive. 1300 best sitting is not going to be stellar when it comes to the WCS for the MoC slate unless you hit it out of the ballpark for everything else. PAR is the huge chunk of the WCS.
4. This is a unique forum, posters are AD members, retirees, parents and your peers. However, unless the poster states it in their reply or you know them, it is kind of like the blind leading the blind.
~ IE Dude, your stats are the same as mine and I got an apptmt...see #3. That poster could be from Idaho and had 4 noms (MOC and ROTC) before they had to hit the pool. You are from CA with 1 nom. BIG difference because you had only 1 nom before hitting the pool.
5. NOBODY knows the pool size, nor the number that USAFA will target for apptmts.
~ In 08 they gave out about 1650 apptmts for a targeted incoming class size of 1350. A yr or 2 later, they gave out @1300 for a target of 1100 on IDAY.
~~Just saying, what if the poster says no way, but now this yr the pool size is smaller and the apptmt size is larger, will you be that poster next yr saying...I got an apptmt and your stats are better than mine?
~~ Will you just throw in the towel?

I get I am being harsh, mean, rude, unkind, fill in whatever words you want, but here is the real deal.

NOBODY knows the answer. I am sure Christcorp, Flieger, Stealth, Fencer, etc will back me up on this statement: We have seen over the yrs many that we thought had no chance, and got an appointment, just as often as we thought there were stellar candidates that got the TWE. It is a rollercoaster ride, just like your next 4 yrs will be, and the 5 you will owe as an ADAF member. Buckle up, because impo this is the easiest part of your future.

Please stop the chance me threads, instead do yourself a favor. Investigate.
Investigate what is next.
~ Search tab works great for things like BCT
Investigate plan B (AFROTC)
~ Search tab
Investigate career fields
~ Search tab
Investigate DoDMERB because many get caught up there.
~ Search tab waivers
Investigate, the USAFA site and the web.
~ IOWS don't ask for a chance me with a 24 V. USAFA has stated on their site the answer.
~ Google is your friend.

Talk to your ALO, not us when it comes to chancing. Flieger and CC are ALOs, but in 2 different states. Their candidates can be completely different and what is common for 1 regarding an apptmt can be uncommon for the other. ALOs are not only your friend, but know your competition too!
~ Apptmts start from a geo-centric and than moves to the national level.

Oh and please do me a favor do not post your essay.
~ Again, it is the blind leading the blind. Would you edit the essay if a poster gave you tips without knowing their educational background? IE a poster says remove this,and you do, only to find out later that they are a junior in HS. Or how about the fact that they may "lift" it and use it for their own essay because it was amazing! Take it to your APENG/LIT teacher.

Done with my rant. I wish you all the very best. I thank you from the bottom of my heart for the fact that you are willing to defend this great nation so others do not have to pay the price.
 
Agree with Pima. Most of the "Chance Me" stats look strikingly similar (almost unreal or impossible in some cases..just not enough hours in the day). That should send a clear signal about the competition. I know that candidates are looking for any sliver of assurance because of the extreme uncertainty of this process. There is no absolute path. Just do well in school, and on standardized testing, lead where you can, and do the things you are passionate about. If it's meant to be, it will be.
 
I am not sure pinning it would work, Many posters do not look at the stickies.

Again, I meant no harm.

I am just saying where I come from I look at new CHANCE ME threads and it is always the same old same old.
~ I have 1300+ SAT superscore, 3.9 uwcgpa, jump start aka dual college credit at school, AP/IB up to my eyeballs, sports up the ying yang, part time job and several hundred hours volunteering.

I see no real "hook", instead just the same old same old. Sorry, but the things I stated above are common for USAFA. Nothing that I would go WOW over...just what is common for USAFA.

SORRY, but that is how I see it. SHOW me the WOW when you create the CHANCE ME thread!
 
This was a realization my son made recently... he can be the big fish in his little pond... but the world is actually full of big fish! When you compete against them, there needs to be something that makes you stand out. He has one thing that makes him stand out (or so he' been told in a couple of interviews) and hopes that works for him for an ROTC scholarship (he opted against applying to academies). But awesome kids are a dime a dozen at academies and as ROTC recipients. That's not to say you shouldn't strive to be a big fish... but just understand that those test/school stats don't necessarily distinguish you in a room full of applicants. Figure out what does and highlight it!
 
This is a great post! Again, this is a great post!

If you have applied to any of the SAs then understand you are competing against some of the very best students/athletes/leaders in the country and your state. Reading some previous threads will allow you to see some of the competition and if you go back for enough you will see some who posted their stats and whether or not they got an appointment.

My DS has a roommate who didn't get in one year and re-applied and was accepted the second year. He and my DS compared stats and there was nothing they could find that separated the two. I say this to repeat there is no magic formula. If you read the threads you will find where you stand with other applicants and that is all. You will find advice on strengthening an application and for interviews. These are helpful if you read them.

I will add that we understand where you are right now. You are anxious and nervous. You will see over the next few months threads of those who got in and also from those who did not. Stay patient and if you can improve then work on it. If you can't then enjoy your senior year and always have a plan B and C.
 
I actually enjoy the "chance me" posts. It gives you some perspective in various ways of the types of kids that are applying, their activities, their struggles, strengths, weaknesses. They are all unique.

Not to mention, the post count will go down about 30% without them and we will have nothing to read and the mods will have nothing to do. :)

It's like saying on a Cubs fansite to tell people to stop posting about how next year is their year. Oh, wait.................
 
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jebdad said:
I actually enjoy the "chance me" posts. It gives you some perspective in various ways of the types of kids that are applying, their activities, their struggles, strengths, weaknesses. They are all unique.

Not to mention, the post count will go down about 30% without them and we will have nothing to read and the mods will have nothing to do. :)

It's like saying on a Cubs fansite to tell people to stop posting about how next year is their year. Oh, wait.................
Click to expand...
Agreed ^^. People like personal feedback with an interactive conversation. I suspect nearly all of the posters understand that no one on this board can give them a definitive answer. That is why they asked about their (keyword) chances. :) It's food for fodder. Nothing more, nothing less.

Like you, I welcome "what are my chances" posts. Keep them coming!
 
I guess it’s because I’m old and the internet did not exist when I was applying to colleges, but the chance me posts always make me scratch my head. As if a motivated young candidate would actually be swayed by the opinions of a couple of strangers on the internet. As if they would truly stop, or never begin, the application process because of random feedback from this informed, yet completely unofficial source. If you want to know if you are going to get in, then throw your application into the ring and find out if you are admitted! That is the only real chance me that there is! Don’t ask here on the internet, ask your Senator and/or MOC, and ask the academy admissions board by applying. If you are hungry for it, go ahead and compete for that slot! If you are admitted you will be competing non-stop throughout your time at the academy and your entire career. Guess what? Life is competitive! Your district is competitive! Start being competitive now!

It was mentioned up thread that there are so many factors in play: geography, HS profile, athletics, leadership, etc., etc. And this bears repeating, because it is so true: Worry about yourself and putting together the best possible package you can. That is all you can control. Whether you’ve wanted an SA since third grade or just found out about them yesterday. Put your absolute best foot forward and you will find out your chance!
 
Have to say that I have enjoyed the chance me threads especially when DS 1 was applying and when DS2 applied this past year. It was interesting to see the phenomenal applicants on these boards. Neither one of my kids was a superstar but they were extremely balanced with grades, sports and leadership and are doing well at their respective academies.....Now in a tribute to perserverance....DS2 recently met a 22 soon to be 23 year old plebe who got into the academy on his 4th try...1 year at University, 1 year at MMI and 1 year at NWP I believe....I'd like to meet this young man.
 
Chance threads are fine and understandable. Most of them are well-polished and hit all the check boxes. Frankly, some of them seem too good to be true. They will presumably all get into academies and look for the same reassurance about their performance during 1st year. My DS can barely keep his grades above water during wrestling season (physically exhausting with tournaments every weekend for 3 months) let alone extracurricular activities or work. I'm not going to compare him to others. He is doing what he thinks needs to be done. His sister went through the process last year, so he has some good advice.
 
I am proud of my DS, but I met one of his roommates who went to plan B for a year before being appointed and I immediately loved the perseverance of the Cadet. I was then even more blown away when I met the leader of my DS's squadron and who will be one of the overall Wing leaders in the spring. He spent two years at military schools working on his qualifications before gaining his appointment. He has been a model Cadet since arriving at USAFA. I think these stories help applicants and parents. I have no problems with the threads, but think Pima's post is a great starting point.
 
Pima is 100 percent correct but I don't mind the threads and have seen some good advice given out regarding various things from ACT scores to varsity sports. Some of the advice and or comments arent probably what some of these young posters were expecting or hoping for but I am a person that appreciates no BS.
 
I mind the threads; please do your homework by using the search tab before asking your question.
 
I don't mind the threads...really! However, I do mind them when it is the same old same old. How many times do you see the same thing over and over again.

Please Chance me:
3.754 wcgpa
Top 5%
Number 10 ot of a class of 623
31 ACT
9 APs
Dual Enrollment
NHS President
Varsity LAX
Team Captain
PT job
400 hrs COmmunity Service
Boys State
Billy Mitchell

Yadda yadda yadda, and the very next new thread is
Please Chance me
3.652 wcgpa
Top 5%
Number 3 out of 253
32 ACT
7 APs
Dual Enrollment
Student COuncil VP
Varsity Track
PT job
450 Community Hours
Eagle Scout

There really isn't that much difference between the 2, both are competitive, just like the majority of the posters that ask for a chance. What is the same is someone is going to come on and give the same answers.
~ Nobody here sits on the board and cannot give an answer
~ What state are you from
~ What does your school profile look like
~ The only chance for sure is you have 0% if you don't apply.

Thus, why I created the thread...use the search tab and really think about what your goal is when you create a Chance Me thread. Is it for you to feel good for a few moments, or is your resume something insanely unique where you can't find a comparison.
Home Schooled, but taking college courses at the local CC, carrying a 3.8 gpa there.
30 ACT
NO rank, no cgpa
Travel team for soccer ---Tri-State champions
Volunteered rebuilding homes in Haiti over the summer for 3 months
No part time job because you are the oldest and must babysit your little sister while the folks are at work.
 
I look at "what are my chances" posts differently. IMHO, you WANT applicants to post. Many times the "what are my chances" is someone's very 1st post. Statistically speaking, some will turn into more active posters in the future and this will become a more active members. I bet the farm that if I search on current active USAFA students and grad posters, a high percentage of them started off with a "chance me" thread. If you want less active forum (and follow-on posts), I'd suggest to continue to ask people to use the search button. Scare them away! The posters realize that NO ONE KNOWS. All those who are bothered by it should bypass the thread. Simple. It's not like the USAFA forum is clogged with hundreds of "chance me" threads. I suspect the current USAFA students are a little more open to "chance me" threads than former parents who are saturated because they have been on the forum for a long time. Just my 2 cents. Carry on.
 
Wishful said:
please do your homework......
Click to expand...

^^ I agree. Frankly, if they are in h.s. and have enough PC skills to find this site and post here, they should also take the time to be proactive and do some of their own research on prior threads. I get the impression that many of the new posters do NOT realize there is no value in 'chance me' threads. Many of the REALLY basic questions seem like they want us to be their personal online help desk. Applying to an SA is partly about taking some initiative to understand what all this involves. We tell certain posters to READ the entire SA website about admissions, but then they keep asking questions that show they have made NO effort to do that.
 
They are Gen Y... or am I just stereotyping?
 
I wasn't going to post a "chance me" question, but now that Pima started the thread, I thought I would try.

Please Chance me:
3.9 GPA
Multiple technical degrees + graduate school
Varsity Swimming
No community service, but continuous work history
Almost perfect SAT scores

But here's my problem: I'm 62, and possibly a "few pounds" over the weight standard for my height.

Do you think I can get an age/weight waiver?
 
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