USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

Ideally, GPA shows one’s ability to perform and meet/exceed expectations over time; AP scores show one’s ability to consolidate knowledge of a particular subject; and standardized test scores show one’s ability to perform on a timed assessment of a particular level of math and reading comprehension.

While it would be nice to have standards for all three that can be applied to all students, that does not work in practice. But instead of looking at each in the context of one’s socioeconomic status, high school, ethnicity, etc., there is an unfortunate push by colleges in particular to be blind to particular data. I suspect that if the US News and other rankings eliminated SAT scores from their methodology and stopped reporting SAT scores in their yearly class profiles there would be much less of a push to eliminate standardized test scores.

Unfortunately, eliminating standardized test scores is not helpful to students and parents in the context of tremendous grade inflation at most public and private schools. The last several admissions cycles that have been test optional or blind have seen many, many students with near perfect GPAs trying to make sense of their admission results. And worse, rising high school students are seeing such results and struggling to figure out how to distinguish themselves from other applicants.
 
At the end of the day, standardized exams aren't perfect, but the absence of a standard is even worse. School grades aren't an option for a replacement given the presumption of inflation and differing "standards" from one school to the next or one state to the next. Selection at this competitive level can't be made based on an essay or a 15-minute interview.

SAT/ACT optional may lead to good students submitting scores and non-competitive students not submitting scores. How does that help in making critical (sometimes competitive) admissions decisions? Recent studies about USMA suggest a HIGH degree of correlation between SAT scores and overall performance of Cadets by the time of graduation! SAT scores remain one of the better predictors of Cadet performance. Why spend taxpayer dollars and admit a student which, due to the high correlation between SAT scores and Cadet performance, has a very low probability of graduating. Even worse, when a poorly qualified candidate is admitted, another candidate is denied an appointment that could have graduated and served our country.
 
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It was just pointed out to me that CGA is still test optional today, for the class of 2027. That could be a reason their applications didn't drop nearly as far as the other academies. (I think they were only down 8-9% last year.)
 
StPaulDad said:
It was just pointed out to me that CGA is still test optional today, for the class of 2027. That could be a reason their applications didn't drop nearly as far as the other academies. (I think they were only down 8-9% last year.)
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I wonder how many applicants submit without test scores? And further, how many of those are ultimately admitted? The website says that standardized test scores are "optional, but encouraged." And then if you want to be reviewed without test scores you must "upload a short statement with your online application requesting to review your application without test scores." To me, the underlying message seems to be that, really, the CGA wants test scores.
 
Oh I totally agree with you, they want scores. If fact I tell anyone who asks that if any school gives an opportunity to talk about yourself you grab it and sell. And since most people can improve standardized test scores with some coaching this is an area where you might be able to bolster your case. (And here's also a bit of empathy for those who are poor test takers and have to work to get above average in the first place.) But in general I think there's more room to dodge a test here than back in 2021 when there was more of a "how many test dates did you have cancelled, and why didn't you fly to New Mexico?" vibe.
 
It will be very informative to see how the academies are doing both with respect to quantity of applicants and quality next year! I say next year because comparable data will not be released until the next class has been selected.
 
StPaulDad said:
It was just pointed out to me that CGA is still test optional today, for the class of 2027. That could be a reason their applications didn't drop nearly as far as the other academies. (I think they were only down 8-9% last year.)
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That could partially explain the drop, but 8-9% is very similar to the drop experienced by USMA and USNA who have the same policy as USAFA
 
Korab said:
This article reveals attitudes amongst the pool of potential service academy applicants which might explain why applications are down, although it’s unclear how widespread this thinking is. Concerning nonetheless.

americanmilitarynews.com

Video: Young Americans say 'nobody cares' about 9/11, they 'hate US, military' and US 'deserved' it

A video shows young Americans expressing apathy over the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks that killed nearly 3,000 American civilians.
americanmilitarynews.com americanmilitarynews.com
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And this article gives insight as to why recruitment is tough for AD and Reserve slots for all services.

The issue seems to be a bit more complicated than just kids who have forgotten 9/11. Most who were not even born yet on that 9/11.

But as far as recruitment down among those types who refuse to consider serving ( we had a generation of cowards who refused to fight my war so I do t know why we should be surprised)

I have always believed that if serving as an enlisted was a possible outcome when someone applied to a SA

the parents in these SA forums would be running full speed away with DS or DD in tow as fast as they could, if serving as an enlisted, especially serving as an enlisted in the combat arms, was a possibility.
 
The cadets are being brainwashed/molded/forced into conforming to woke garbage. Not allowed to say Mom and Dad?????????
This is absurd. The time they are using to brainwash should be time spent training warriors.
 
I'd go with the explanation that required SAT/ACT is the most likely culprit. I don't think Class of '22 numbers have come out yet, but for the Class of '21, SAT administrations were down by one-third over the Classes of '20 and '19, 1.5 million vice 2.2 million. As I said, Class of '22 isn't out yet, and that's the most salient number for the USAFA Class of '26 application decrease, but I'd start with the SAT/ACT requirement. When the largest state effectively says no more SAT/ACT and we won't even consider them, which all of California's public colleges have now done, it will have an effect.

Full disclosure, I strongly support requiring the SAT/ACT.
 
somuchbetterthanme said:
The cadets are being brainwashed/molded/forced into conforming to woke garbage. Not allowed to say Mom and Dad?????????
This is absurd. The time they are using to brainwash should be time spent training warriors.
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Of course it's absurd. And of course that's not what's happening. Go read the posts in the "mom and dad" thread from students or parents of students who were in these sessions and you'll find what really happened.

Cadets instructed by USAFA leadership not to use words like "Mom" and "Dad"

The ironic thing is everyone I’ve met who is in one of these groups that “needs to be protected from harmful speech” doesn’t give a crap. Ask someone adopted by a same-sex couple if they get offended by the generalization that the vast, vast majority of people have a mom and a dad, and you’ll...
www.serviceacademyforums.com
 
franknd said:
I'd go with the explanation that required SAT/ACT is the most likely culprit. I don't think Class of '22 numbers have come out yet, but for the Class of '21, SAT administrations were down by one-third over the Classes of '20 and '19, 1.5 million vice 2.2 million. As I said, Class of '22 isn't out yet, and that's the most salient number for the USAFA Class of '26 application decrease, but I'd start with the SAT/ACT requirement. When the largest state effectively says no more SAT/ACT and we won't even consider them, which all of California's public colleges have now done, it will have an effect.

Full disclosure, I strongly support requiring the SAT/ACT.
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We live in NYC and knew that the SAT was required for USNA and USMA. NYC had some of the most stringent COVID restrictions in the country. DD had at least three SAT exams cancelled , one she was waiting on line at a testing center when proctors came out and told the kids the exam was cancelled 45 minutes before the scheduled exam. We traveled out of state twice including an overnight hotel stay so she could take SATs. DD had our family’s full support (financially , emotionally and time wise) to assist her . Not every candidate has that kind of familial support or frankly that kind of motivation . Several of her classmates who were excellent students submitted applications to highly ranked schools and didn’t submit SAT scores and were not accepted . The handful who did submit standardized test scores were accepted , so I wonder if certain colleges announcing they are now “test optional” is indeed true .
 
It could be application fatigue. The USAFA seems to be the most time consuming of the applications. At least from my DS perspective. He is a low-key athlete recruit at USNA and that is by far his first choice. He would also be interested in USAFA as a second choice but it is taking forever to finish up the application. The personal statement, plus then answer these additional questions seems like a bit of overkill just to get the application complete. Especially because all of these questions are getting asked multiple times by multiple different stakeholders (academies, BGO (if there is equivalent for USAFA) MOC interviews) throughout the process. It is a chore to get one application to completion, let alone multiple. So if USAFA isn't a candidate's first choice then maybe they aren't applying at all? My son is still planning on finishing his application, but he is a little annoyed at the multiple questions he has to finish. I don't envy these kids going through the process at all. It is a ton of work for kids who are already doing a ton of work, which is what makes them good candidates to begin with. I'm not suggesting the process should be easier or dumbed down, but it could be some kids just don't push through to application completion. I would be curious to know what the percentage of "abandoned applications" would be.
 
"Several of her classmates who were excellent students submitted applications to highly ranked schools and didn’t submit SAT scores and were not accepted . The handful who did submit standardized test scores were accepted , so I wonder if certain colleges announcing they are now “test optional” is indeed true ."

It may help you to read about the history of Prop 209 in California and how UC has responded over the years to get around it. Keep in mind that there are "test optional" and then "test scores will not be considered and should not be submitted" schools.

If I had good test scores I would definitely submit them when I could. They can't hurt. Test optional allows colleges to hit their goals without hard evidence of discrimination. It would be helpful to know what buckets her successful and unsuccessful classmates find themselves in and see if a pattern emerges. The pattern may be as simple as submitted/did not submit or it could be many other things.

If your daughter is thinking about law school the LSAT may be optional or not accepted by the time she gets there and the pass score cut off for the bar exam when she graduates may be significantly lower as well.

If it benefits you then it may be good for you (on an individual level). If it doesn't then you are an ally and you can feel good about yourself while going to a less or perhaps much less selective school.

For another view on the subject have a look at what MIT is doing this year and ask why are they doing that after going test optional? Well, they tell you why. I find it to be interesting reading applicable to more than just MIT.

mitadmissions.org

Tests & scores | MIT Admissions

At MIT Admissions, we recruit and enroll a talented and diverse class of undergraduates who will learn to use science, technology, and other areas of scholarship to serve the nation and the world in the 21st century.
mitadmissions.org mitadmissions.org

mitadmissions.org

We are reinstating our SAT/ACT requirement for future admissions cycles | MIT Admissions

in order to help us continue to build a diverse and talented MIT
mitadmissions.org mitadmissions.org
 
The number of high school grads is decreasing (US demographics), international student enrollment took a hit (also US schools must compete with more affordable universities in other countries for internationals). For private universities it makes total sense to go test optional. To survive. To fill 1000-2000 freshman seats, to stay in business, you may have to admit more students with a lower SAT resulting in a lower admitted average relative to history - not a good look as parents shop for schools so test optional is a boon for non elite universities. And touchy-feely good promo. For the SAs I do worry that the media and politicians have fostered the spirit of Americans hating America. To be positive about our country is almost a moral offense that can get you canceled if you have any visible job. So who will be attracted to defend it? There is wisdom in that house divided notion. Very sad. And apparently the Chinese are buying up our farmland.
 
Falcon74 said:
At the end of the day, standardized exams aren't perfect, but the absence of a standard is even worse. School grades aren't an option for a replacement given the presumption of inflation and differing "standards" from one school to the next or one state to the next. Selection at this competitive level can't be made based on an essay or a 15-minute interview.

SAT/ACT optional may lead to good students submitting scores and non-competitive students not submitting scores. How does that help in making critical (sometimes competitive) admissions decisions? Recent studies about USMA suggest a HIGH degree of correlation between SAT scores and overall performance of Cadets by the time of graduation! SAT scores remain one of the better predictors of Cadet performance. Why spend taxpayer dollars and admit a student which, due to the high correlation between SAT scores and Cadet performance, has a very low probability of graduating. Even worse, when a poorly qualified candidate is admitted, another candidate is denied an appointment that could have graduated and served our country.
Click to expand...
Do you mind linking the USMA study? Thanks.
 
Standardized testing has its place, but is not a be all end all for assessment of predicted scholastic success. In the same way that GPA inflation is problematic, so is SAT/ACT score inflation. Indeed, a University of Chicago study finds that ACT scores are less predictive of post-secondary academic success than GPA.

news.uchicago.edu

Test scores don’t stack up to GPAs in predicting college success

Test scores don’t stack up to GPAs in predicting college success
news.uchicago.edu news.uchicago.edu
 
AFrpaso said:
Do you mind linking the USMA study? Thanks.
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As I recall the raw data came from FOIA requests (Classes 2010-2017) and is presented in the following blog. USMA Data Source
I took the raw data and ran a linear regression to make the data/trend easier to view/understand. The attached file shows the data. Clearly and not surprisingly, likelihood of graduating (related to the CQPA score) is highly correlated to SAT scores. The final chart shows the relationship between CQPA and graduation/separation. WRT the final chart, USMA didn't release the codes for their single letters for "Usma Stat Cd", but it is believed that "G" is graduated and "S" is separated. As you can see the lower the CQPA (and by correlation, the lower the SAT score), the lower the likelihood that a cadet would graduate. Although this raw data was provided by USMA, I would argue that, if comparable date were to be released by USAFA and USNA, we would observe similar trends. However, getting data via a FOIA request is time taking - not to submit, but for USAFA (for example) to respond. Federal law requires a response within 20 days of submission, however, some USAFA FOIA requests are still awaiting responses after years (FOIA status).
 

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