USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

Also yea for being on the track team. Who knew it would be the highest number of the sports!
 
FalconDad2026 said:
The percent decline in qualified candidates is even more striking, resulting in a very high percent (77%) of those qualified ultimately receiving an offer of admission.

Perhaps COVID-related impact on academic performance (academic DQ) and mental health diagnoses and drug therapies (medical DQ) resulted in both fewer people applying and fewer people successfully qualifying. Plus, an unfavorable portrayal of law enforcement, military and similar professions in the last few years may have steered away those toying with the idea of an SA, who would have opened an application in years past, but never really pursued it whole-heartedly.

Ivy league schools, other T20 schools, and many more schools also require the vaccine(s) and all saw an increase in the number of applications, so the vaccine does not seem a likely reason.

Our experience with the marketing efforts of USMA, USNA and USAFA was the same as others have noted. USMA had great letters, local meetings, personal contact with reps, overnight visit offer, etc.. It's difficult for young people to commit to a difficult application process and the prospect of a 9-year commitment for a school that they can't visit and don't get personal attention from. That's a risk/reward proposition that only lends itself to those who knew they wanted USAFA years in advance of the application cycle.
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Obesity is also a big factor on the physical side. The Nintendo era has resulted in kids growing up staring at screens instead of running around playing outside. Yes, most academy applicants are fit, but there are probably at least a few who can't pass the CFA.
 
More food for thought:

I wonder if it might be because our shift in focus. 9/11 and GWOT were tangible things. We had a casus belli and the war that followed. Now with the end of GWOT and the shift to near-peer warfare that hasn't gone hot yet, do people see less of a reason to join?
 
Word is USNA experienced a similar decline. This is likely multifactorial and last year numbers may have been artificailly elevated because of accomodations made for COVID. A more reasonable look would be to evaluate the last 5 years. The number of high school graduates in many parts of the country is decreasing, the interest in serving has as clearly waned as evidenced by the global shortfall in military requitment, and many no longer physically qualify. As political winds change, and the economy softens, a rebound will occur.
 
MooseDad said:
Word is USNA experienced a similar decline. This is likely multifactorial and last year numbers may have been artificailly elevated because of accomodations made for COVID. A more reasonable look would be to evaluate the last 5 years. The number of high school graduates in many parts of the country is decreasing, the interest in serving has as clearly waned as evidenced by the global shortfall in military requitment, and many no longer physically qualify. As political winds change, and the economy softens, a rebound will occur.
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I'm curious to see what USNA's numbers look like. I can agree with other posters that USMA's outreach efforts were much better than USAFA and USNA. It still didn't motivate my daughter to apply there, but we are in NY and she didn't want to stay in the state.
 
This is a very interesting thread . I agree that DD received very little information about USAFA . She did receive materials from USMA and once she attended an online admission forum (covid) for USNA and forwarded her email and address, she received quite a bit information for USNA . We were able to attend a USNA session in NJ once the worse of covid had passed and it was packed. I do agree that obesity and lack of physical fitness can be a factor also for some possible candidates . DD’s dad was enlisted and served in Iraq . He was the one who was insistent that if she wanted to serve in the military that she would go to college and pursue ROTC or a service academy .
 
Was AFROTC the one that pulled all those scholarships last year for the 2nd 2 year period from those high achieving kids and then gave many back after the backlash? Is it possible they just didn't need as many people this year and made part of it up at USAFA?
 
JP4 said:
Was AFROTC the one that pulled all those scholarships last year for the 2nd 2 year period from those high achieving kids and then gave many back after the backlash? Is it possible they just didn't need as many people this year and made part of it up at USAFA?
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It was AFROTC that did that. I heard there were many that complained to their congress person to apply pressure to have many of the decisions reversed. This year AFROTC drastically cut funding to the HSSP while boosting current funding for ISSP. AFROTC will only be awarding Type 1s this year in a reduced quantity overall.
The above and the drop in appointments makes me think along the same lines as you. That being, too many people right now in the AF officer pipeline.
As a rising senior, my hope is if this is the case, it's only for one cycle of USAFA appointments and AFROTC HSSP.
 
The job/employment situation has also shifted a bit. Currently potential employees have the upper hand! They can negotiate salaries and benefits, have higher starting pay, and schooling not required (general statement). There is certainly a shift in the workforce presently.

A kid graduating high school has real, substantial options for joining the workforce that didn’t exist a couple years ago. It’s enticing to a graduating senior! Vs going to another 4 yrs of school, with two of their own PAST 4 spent in front a monitor.

My recent regular college graduate from big state school, had 100 pct of his major placed into jobs. That’s huge! And, he himself had two solid offers (as a middle of the pack graduate) he was able to negotiate for higher salary and benefits against each other. L my point is that the employment opportunities for the workforce, is affecting college applicants overall. Including SA’s.

Can’t explain the discrepancy between the SA’s, however. Maybe it’s the location 🤔 ??
 
A few years back I was on a military more enlisted forum.

over a few years I saw one particular young man show up with some I want to be a Marine questions.

I was able to follow his joining training and combat deployments.

by the time I lost track of him he had made 7 combat deployments. And been shot in the chest once ( yea for the flack jacket)

I understand the reluctance to serve. Waving flags and watching military parades is easy.

combat deployments are not
 
justdoit19 said:
The job/employment situation has also shifted a bit. Currently potential employees have the upper hand! They can negotiate salaries and benefits, have higher starting pay, and schooling not required (general statement). There is certainly a shift in the workforce presently.

A kid graduating high school has real, substantial options for joining the workforce that didn’t exist a couple years ago. It’s enticing to a graduating senior! Vs going to another 4 yrs of school, with two of their own PAST 4 spent in front a monitor.

My recent regular college graduate from big state school, had 100 pct of his major placed into jobs. That’s huge! And, he himself had two solid offers (as a middle of the pack graduate) he was able to negotiate for higher salary and benefits against each other. L my point is that the employment opportunities for the workforce, is affecting college applicants overall. Including SA’s.

Can’t explain the discrepancy between the SA’s, however. Maybe it’s the location 🤔 ??
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You make a good point - along these lines, Air Force likely has the highest number of applicants planning to be pilots. The winds in commercial aviation have gone through some turmoil, but have settled into a hiring frenzy like we have never seen. Imagine you are a graduate who want to fly for the airlines someday, but also wants to serve your country? Do you apply to the USAFA and accept a 10 year post pilot training commitment (so…15 years until you can apply to the airlines at the fastest). Maybe, but if you have a good pilot mentor she/he may be telling you to go into the guard, get your degree as fast as possible, have your unit send you to pilot training, and start flying for a major airline in your 20s. I joined the Air Force with my eye on a career so the 10 year commitment was easy for me to sign on to. I have no regrets, but I also don’t fault anyone thinking past their Air Force service. I fly with a lot of guard/reserve pilots who have fantastic lifestyles AND a commitment to service.
 
DiscoF15 said:
You make a good point - along these lines, Air Force likely has the highest number of applicants planning to be pilots. The winds in commercial aviation have gone through some turmoil, but have settled into a hiring frenzy like we have never seen. Imagine you are a graduate who want to fly for the airlines someday, but also wants to serve your country? Do you apply to the USAFA and accept a 10 year post pilot training commitment (so…15 years until you can apply to the airlines at the fastest). Maybe, but if you have a good pilot mentor she/he may be telling you to go into the guard, get your degree as fast as possible, have your unit send you to pilot training, and start flying for a major airline in your 20s. I joined the Air Force with my eye on a career so the 10 year commitment was easy for me to sign on to. I have no regrets, but I also don’t fault anyone thinking past their Air Force service. I fly with a lot of guard/reserve pilots who have fantastic lifestyles AND a commitment to service.
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Kids coming out of high school today have different options available to them than they did only a few years ago. And in general, winds are aslo shifting about the value of a college degree, in some cases/situations. So in general, a kid who may be potentially considering apply to a SA, may decide to not pursue college at all.

There are lots of factors going into the changes happening presently. Nothing was untouched by the pandemic. Imo there’s not one single reason for anything. And everything is wonky.
 
I think something even as simple as not getting ahold of someone in the admissions office can lead to frustration if a potential candidate wants a question answered about the school or application process. While I can't speak to the other service academies, not being able to get ahold of someone via phone in the admissions office at USAFA was very frustrating during the application process due to their staff still teleworking from home. On average, it took 2-3 days for someone in admissions to respond to a simple question. We had no problem getting ahold of admissions immediately when we called large universities (like Texas A&M who gets way more applications than USAFA). The Air Force is back at work in their offices (husband is active duty), so why is admissions at USAFA not doing the same? Just my two cents.
 
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Usnavy2019 said:
Obesity is also a big factor on the physical side. The Nintendo era has resulted in kids growing up staring at screens instead of running around playing outside. Yes, most academy applicants are fit, but there are probably at least a few who can't pass the CFA.
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DS just started at USAFA Prep and I was totally surprised by the number of people who turned up on Day 1 out of shape and clearly overweight. The reporting instructions and all of the pre-calls talked about working out prior to arrival and the need to be ready physically, it even gave a week by week work out program starting 8 weeks out. The altitude at USAFA plays a part in the initial struggle some cadet candidates undergo and arriving out of shape seems counterintuitive. While I don't think this is the sole or even major reason for the drop in applicants the lifestyle choice some of the graduating seniors have chosen certainly does not set them up well for choosing the service academy route.
 
On the lines of overall recruiting and application it would be interesting to see if the potential unmanned future of flight operations is something that has impacted those potential applicants who saw the AF as the path to flying. Even though we are still possibly many years away from pilots being redundant, is the discussion around UAV's enough to create uncertainty in the minds of these potential future pilots? Those pilots to whom I have spoken all agree that we are a long way from that being the case. The next generation of fighters and bombers are already in development and airframes such as the F35 are still relatively new so pilots are still a major factor. However, the young person considering their future may be concerned with all the drone talk and the rapid development of new technologies that could impact this future and possibly see this as no longer a good long term option. Just a thought.....
 
With an acceptance rate of 13% or so, a downward application rate does not seem to be an immediate issue from this taxpayers perspective.
 
If I follow the data provided, AF is down 27%. Army is down, but only 10%. Navy could be down X to Y%. (once we see the 26 profile).
Do we have a sense of the various ROTC applications? Seems if AF ROTC applications were also down around 27%, it could indicate a service problem, where as if ROTC was not down, it could indicate an Academy problem?
 
There is one other unusual thing that could impact applications or enlistments if this down turn is real or points to an issue.

Jan 6 and our past election for potus and all the drama and angst after This along with covid fatigue could have just wore people down.

Not a political comment
 
Inside the Admissions office this had to be apparent for much of the year. Has USAFA come out with a comment on this? They have to be looking at it hard, and have probably in touch with USNA and USMA all along. Depending on what USNA announces I think my guess would be on the perceived responsiveness and availability of the USMA staff over USAFA. Covid and all that other stuff affects them all, and a tightening economy should make "free" schools even more appealing, not less.
 
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