USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

Just my $0.10 worth...

ALO's were briefed on this a while back and were given numbers a bit different from those shared here. Suffice it to say, they're "close enough" to not be worth much clarification/discussion.

We were also told that the RRS folks had been told "by their counterparts at USMA/USNA" that they had seen a similar impact. I don't know if their numbers were the "same or close" or what but RRS said it was significant at all three of the "big" academies. They didn't discuss KP or CGA.

What I've noticed recently (ie: Pet Peeve)...

Obesity was mentioned. Yes, that's a small issue but the bigger issue is an overall lack of fitness. What I've found in the past 20+ years is a steady decline in overall physical fitness ability. I'll use me as an example. I'm "old" according to my students. When I was in HS, oh those years ago (think Carter Era)...everyone took PE. And in "boys" PE we did silly things like the Presidential Physical Fitness Test (for a grade). We did pushups and pullups, and we climbed ropes from the gym floor to the ceiling rafters, rang a bell, and climbed down. We climbed cargo nets and had races to the top, and back down. And we ran miles...and we played games, etc., but everything was geared to physical strength improvement and cardio fitness.

Today...PE is often "an elective" that is waived if you take something else or are on a team, etc. I get kids enrolling in JROTC because the school district will waive their PE requirement if they do two years. I see healthy appearing males (6', 175) come to me and when we do the AFJROTC fitness test...they average 2 pullups (dead hang, pronated grip, pull their chin above the bar, return to full hang, repeat). Yes, I said TWO. Their average pushups (break 90 degrees going down, return to fully up, repeat) to be less than 25. Their mile run average is over 8:30 with most coming in near 10:00. Young ladies are comparable except they almost never can do a pullup and less than 10 pushups.

Kids aren't pressed physically in school. If you could test fitness by testing their thumb abilities...well, that'd be a different story. And it's telling. Last year, and I apologize as I didn't write down the precise number, but in my state we lost @16% of our candidates in the application process due to CFA failures. IMHO (ie: I don't have anything official on this) USAFA has gotten so used to seeing CFA failures, they appear to "almost" automatically offer a second chance. I say "almost" in that I've seen times where they didn't, but it's been a long time ago.

Okay, I'm going to climb off the soap box. I could take this for a long drive but...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
 
...

Kids aren't pressed physically in school. If you could test fitness by testing their thumb abilities...well, that'd be a different story. And it's telling. Last year, and I apologize as I didn't write down the precise number, but in my state we lost @16% of our candidates in the application process due to CFA failures. IMHO (ie: I don't have anything official on this) USAFA has gotten so used to seeing CFA failures, they appear to "almost" automatically offer a second chance. I say "almost" in that I've seen times where they didn't, but it's been a long time ago.

Okay, I'm going to climb off the soap box. I could take this for a long drive but...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83

How does this relate to application decline, though? They assume they will fail CFA and/or dodmerb so they dont bother applying?
 
How does this relate to application decline, though? They assume they will fail CFA and/or dodmerb so they dont bother applying?
No, it's just a comment on some of the issues of the time and this was a decent location. To apply it to the overall decline, my focus would be on the qualified candidate. I'm seeing a decline, very large in scope, of qualified candidates. I've had many very promising students come to me and say "I'd LOVE to go to XXXX but I can't pass the physical test so that's that..." And when I prod them with "hey, we can fix that! It'll take some work but it can be done..." they walk away.
 
We had occasion to talk with NASS and STEM camp detailers amongst our youngster sponsor mids this summer. They were appalled at the lack of general fitness. One of the NASS detailers, a tag along friend of a sponsor mid NASS detailer, related how they had a NASSter who quit 5 minutes into an easy-paced mile run, saying it was too hard. The mids heard (admitted hearsay here, but I wouldn’t be surprised) the mom called the Commandant, who of course tasked the OIC, NASS to respond, to the complaint that you couldn’t expect attendees to be made to run a mile, that they should get waivers if they had high grades and were otherwise high achievers. 🙄
 
No, it's just a comment on some of the issues of the time and this was a decent location. To apply it to the overall decline, my focus would be on the qualified candidate. I'm seeing a decline, very large in scope, of qualified candidates. I've had many very promising students come to me and say "I'd LOVE to go to XXXX but I can't pass the physical test so that's that..." And when I prod them with "hey, we can fix that! It'll take some work but it can be done..." they walk away.
I get it. I have family member who likely was the recipient of a desperate enlistment quota recently. I am sure they used an elastic tape measure to make sure he wasn't dq'd.

Power point presentation given by the Sup. from I Day. At least according to someone who attended.
Thanks. that would definitely be a similar decrease as USAFA. 25%
 
Just my $0.10 worth...

ALO's were briefed on this a while back and were given numbers a bit different from those shared here. Suffice it to say, they're "close enough" to not be worth much clarification/discussion.

We were also told that the RRS folks had been told "by their counterparts at USMA/USNA" that they had seen a similar impact. I don't know if their numbers were the "same or close" or what but RRS said it was significant at all three of the "big" academies. They didn't discuss KP or CGA.

What I've noticed recently (ie: Pet Peeve)...

Obesity was mentioned. Yes, that's a small issue but the bigger issue is an overall lack of fitness. What I've found in the past 20+ years is a steady decline in overall physical fitness ability. I'll use me as an example. I'm "old" according to my students. When I was in HS, oh those years ago (think Carter Era)...everyone took PE. And in "boys" PE we did silly things like the Presidential Physical Fitness Test (for a grade). We did pushups and pullups, and we climbed ropes from the gym floor to the ceiling rafters, rang a bell, and climbed down. We climbed cargo nets and had races to the top, and back down. And we ran miles...and we played games, etc., but everything was geared to physical strength improvement and cardio fitness.

Today...PE is often "an elective" that is waived if you take something else or are on a team, etc. I get kids enrolling in JROTC because the school district will waive their PE requirement if they do two years. I see healthy appearing males (6', 175) come to me and when we do the AFJROTC fitness test...they average 2 pullups (dead hang, pronated grip, pull their chin above the bar, return to full hang, repeat). Yes, I said TWO. Their average pushups (break 90 degrees going down, return to fully up, repeat) to be less than 25. Their mile run average is over 8:30 with most coming in near 10:00. Young ladies are comparable except they almost never can do a pullup and less than 10 pushups.

Kids aren't pressed physically in school. If you could test fitness by testing their thumb abilities...well, that'd be a different story. And it's telling. Last year, and I apologize as I didn't write down the precise number, but in my state we lost @16% of our candidates in the application process due to CFA failures. IMHO (ie: I don't have anything official on this) USAFA has gotten so used to seeing CFA failures, they appear to "almost" automatically offer a second chance. I say "almost" in that I've seen times where they didn't, but it's been a long time ago.

Okay, I'm going to climb off the soap box. I could take this for a long drive but...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
Steve , when you were in HS were you playing two or three sports in HS plus club teams virtually year around. aAs well as some higher level invite teams?Were you in organized sports every single month of the year?

Heck my GD and many of her friends all go to spec work outs at some high tech sports performance place.

I grew up in the 50s. There was nothing like that.

most of the kids I know are involved in sports year around. And sometimes more than one sport at a time.

And at least at the SA virtually all the successful applicants play sports and most of them are captains.

What we have is very much a two tier issue.

mamy of these youngsters are the fittest young Americans in history. Then there are the polar opposites.
 
Just a side note about the less fit and military service.

Can you picture the average WW2 enlisted. The depression generation. Bad diets, bad teeth, underweight some that had never played sports..

I don’t often compare pops to Audie Murphy but they both got turned away from the USMC in 42 for not meeting physical standards.

Audie too underweight Dad with depression era teeth.

They both ended up serving

but that war was won by a lot of people, a lot of people, that would be turned away from the military today
 
Just my $0.10 worth...

ALO's were briefed on this a while back and were given numbers a bit different from those shared here. Suffice it to say, they're "close enough" to not be worth much clarification/discussion.

We were also told that the RRS folks had been told "by their counterparts at USMA/USNA" that they had seen a similar impact. I don't know if their numbers were the "same or close" or what but RRS said it was significant at all three of the "big" academies. They didn't discuss KP or CGA.
I think these are right for CGA...

Class of 2025 - 2,070 completed applications, 285 accepted appointments
Class of 2026 - 1,890 completed applications, 294 accepted appointments

So it looks like the apps are down 8.6% at the CGA.
 
Kids aren't pressed physically in school. If you could test fitness by testing their thumb abilities...well, that'd be a different story.
If the CFA ever incorporated “joystick dexterity” in place of pull-ups, I’m sure the failure rate would drop. Sad, but no doubt true.

In my college classes, I see only a few men and women who appear highly fit. Some look decently fit, but most seem like they live sedentary lives. And this at a university, and in a state, reputed to have relatively high levels of fitness. My observation and assessment are by no means scientific, but it’s anecdotal evidence I’m willing to bank on.
 
It has been very interesting to follow this thread. Lots of great opinions and food for thought. As the parent of a junior who is starting the process, my hope is that while societal changes continue to occur, the desire to serve will continue to stay in fashion. It may rise and fall temporarily as we are seeing but these institutions are extremely resilient and have endured for a very long time.
My son expressed a desire to serve and I'm so proud of him for that. I know there are many more like him out there.... I keep telling him that the goal he has set for himself is tough and the odds are not in his favor but if he is willing to put in the work (which he is based on current evidence) I am here to support him every step of the way. Even if he doesn't succeed at this particular goal of attending an SA, he will have gained so much on the journey.
 
Kids coming out of high school today have different options available to them than they did only a few years ago. And in general, winds are aslo shifting about the value of a college degree, in some cases/situations. So in general, a kid who may be potentially considering apply to a SA, may decide to not pursue college at all.

There are lots of factors going into the changes happening presently. Nothing was untouched by the pandemic. Imo there’s not one single reason for anything. And everything is wonky.

There is one other unusual thing that could impact applications or enlistments if this down turn is real or points to an issue.

Jan 6 and our past election for potus and all the drama and angst after This along with covid fatigue could have just wore people down.

Not a political comment
I was shocked to see such a huge drop-off in applicants for the USAFA 2026 class. This week USAFA released the Demographic Profile for the Class of 2026 and they reported only 8,393 applicants. That compares to 11,599 last year. Admission rates were impacted despite 53 fewer offers of admission. The class of 2025 admission rate was 12.3% (1,428/15,599) vs a 2026 admission rate of 16.4% (1,375/8393).

The Naval Academy has not yet reported its numbers, but West Point is only showing a 10% drop. West Point's class of 2025 admissions rate was 8.7% (1,214/13,984). Their admissions rate rose to 9.6% (1,209/12,589) in 2026 as a result of the lower number of applications.

I would love to know what people think about this. Do you really think nearly 28% fewer applicants decided to apply to USAFA in one year? That doesn't seem right to me. Do you think our sudden departure from Afghanistan had something to do with it, and if so why was the impact not the same for Army? I don't think the war in Ukraine had anything to do with it because fighting broke out well after applications were submitted. Do you think they are redefining what constitutes an applicant? Do you think it's a result of bad data related to the new computer system? I am curious to know what people think.


All good ideas posited on this thread. There are so many factors at play. I doubt that it is bad data. My sense about the initial drop off in application #s would be COVID disruption/fatigue. I was surprised that the 2025 #s were as strong as they were. But the class of 2026 really felt the brunt of it during their sophomore and junior years. These kiddos have not had the benefit of a "normal" high school experience and education, like a battleship, does not turn on a dime. It's going to be awhile to correct this course. I would expect to see slightly lower standardized testing scores as the impact of virtual learning is felt in math and less so in reading. GPAs probably won't see much of a dip.

As a candidate mom, current high school teacher, and former college admissions coordinator, I think:

a) there has been a significant disruption to high school counseling/recruiting/mentoring/outreach during the COVID era. Any number of prospective candidates may have simply missed out because they weren't aware enough of the SA opportunities. And we all know that candidates have to start this process early and on point.

b) high achieving students may unfortunately be more likely to self-select out if they feel they are not checking all the boxes: academics, EC, athletics, and leadership. It's really great to see mentors on here encouraging everyone to apply and shoot their best shot. I've heard the same message from attending virtual admission events and in person tours. I hope it's getting through to the kids.

It remains to be seen if this is a blip or a trend. I'm hoping blip. Our kids still have a lot of grit, talent, perseverance, and determination. I have the utmost respect for kids who are making it through this process and/or just making it through this time. I think with a little more recruiting, the numbers will swing back.

This is also a bit of a numbers racket. In regular college admissions, application #s to selective schools are trending up as they drop testing requirements. This makes it look like admission rates at these schools are falling. But really, it's always the qualified candidates competing, just like the SAs. They just don't disclose the #s of qualified candidates.

I don't see a big drop in the % of qualified candidates at USAFA. There was a 28% drop in applications, there was an almost corresponding drop of 25% in the qualified pool. My admissions hat may be a little dusty, but I think those two numbers should correlate. Once actual admission standards and admit yield rates start to wobble, then there may be a problem. But I don't see evidence of that from these #s. On the bright side, I see 1071 well qualified cadets who are on their way.
 
Having just left my career as a high school long-term guest teacher, I can assure you that kids by and large don't want to exercise. You have the exceptions, primarily varsity athletes, and amongst those, there is another layer of overachievers and those who show up for practice and that's it.
You have the varsity athletes that vape non-stop, smoke weed, and brag about the parties they went to after the game. They drink energy drinks all day and don't seem to care about their general health. Conversely, you have the athletes that do take care of their bodies and don't trash them, eat well, work out separate from their sport and wear their seat belts.

I did long-term freshmen physical education. Students earned points for dressing out, attitude, sportsmanship, and participation. I kid you not, I had multiple kids fail freshmen p.e. because they wouldn't change or walk a mile twice a week. If they could walk the mile in 15 minutes, they got full credit (not my grade standard, believe me, but the teacher I took over for). I am 51 and not 'in shape', and I can out walk them, out plank them, and can usually throw a football farther than most of them.

So many of the current high school-aged kids have at one point or another been on meds for ADHD, ADD, ODD, and or some anti-depressant that they are likely not medically qualified to serve. Many of them have IEP's (these numbers are climbing) and that alone may disqualify them from service.

No doubt the lockdowns affected kids. Both physically and academically. But I would hazard a guess that the majority of kids today, aren't nearly as active as generations prior. I grew up in a rural community. We chopped wood, stacked wood, worked in the orchard, hung laundry, had chores and I promise you a vacuum didn't operate itself. Times have changed and sadly work ethic is on the decline IMHO.
 
I think it boils down to the academies still requiring SAT scores, while every other school in the country dropped the requirement entirely. Those kids who were half hearted applicants in years past didn’t bother applying this year because they didn’t want to take the SATs. 2025 wasn’t effected to the same degree because most hard charging kids had already taken their SAT’s by the time the lockdowns occurred.
 
And in my neighborhood this weekend , traffic virtually came to a stop all morning, because I will bet it was 100s of under HS age kids doing a triathlon .

not sure how many but the bikes seemed to go on for hours.
 
I think it boils down to the academies still requiring SAT scores, while every other school in the country dropped the requirement entirely. Those kids who were half hearted applicants in years past didn’t bother applying this year because they didn’t want to take the SATs. 2025 wasn’t effected to the same degree because most hard charging kids had already taken their SAT’s by the time the lockdowns occurred.

I still think this one should be verifiable if ROTC applications are down or not. Does anyone of the 2026 numbers?
 
If it were exercise related I think we'd have seen a more gradual decline. I'm sure it is a combination of many confounded factors. Though my money is on the hard SAT/ACT requirement to be the main contributing factor. There is so much stress surrounding those tests that the ability to ignore them and move forward with other applications is very very tempting.
 
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