USNA Class of 2027 Waitlist: Team Hopeful

[Jganor]

There have been years when no one comes off the WL. It's all a question of yield. Each year, USNA (as with other competitive colleges) puts out X offers of appointment, expecting that Y% of those will accept the offer. It's unknown if USNA creates some "padding."

So (FOR EASY MATH PURPOSES ONLY), assume that USNA wants an entering class of 1200. They know that historically, the yield is 90% (meaning 90% of those offered an appointment actually accept). They make offers to 1330 candidates (which, if 90% accept yields a class size of ~1200). If fewer than 1200 accept, they start taking people off the WL until they reach 1200. If more than 1200 accept, they have a problem (as happened about a decade ago) and definitely don't take anyone from the WL. Unlike civilian colleges, the maximum number for an entering class can't be exceeded.

They can "pad" these numbers by (in my hypo) giving fewer than 1330 candidates offers -- going for less than the usual yield to hedge against too many acceptances. So they might only offer 1310 appointments. If they get the expected 90% yield, that allows for a decent number to come off the WL. If they get >90%, they are still ok.

Of course, it's more complicated than the above. There are LOA folks waiting on a medical waiver that factor into it. Some people who accepted and now decline b/c they got accepted to a preferable school. Moreover, we don't know how USNA treats the yield in terms of the number of offers they put out and this approach could vary from year to year.

Once they determine how many acceptances they have, they know whether they take anyone from the WL and, if so, how many. Medical or other last-minute issues can lead to offers of appointment very late in the cycle.

That makes it very clear, but where could there possibly be a “preferable school”? Joking (mostly) this really makes the math pretty clear with the caveat for the unknowables.

 

[mld99]

There have been years when no one comes off the WL. It's all a question of yield. Each year, USNA (as with other competitive colleges) puts out X offers of appointment, expecting that Y% of those will accept the offer. It's unknown if USNA creates some "padding."

So (FOR EASY MATH PURPOSES ONLY), assume that USNA wants an entering class of 1200. They know that historically, the yield is 90% (meaning 90% of those offered an appointment actually accept). They make offers to 1330 candidates (which, if 90% accept yields a class size of ~1200). If fewer than 1200 accept, they start taking people off the WL until they reach 1200. If more than 1200 accept, they have a problem (as happened about a decade ago) and definitely don't take anyone from the WL. Unlike civilian colleges, the maximum number for an entering class can't be exceeded.

They can "pad" these numbers by (in my hypo) giving fewer than 1330 candidates offers -- going for less than the usual yield to hedge against too many acceptances. So they might only offer 1310 appointments. If they get the expected 90% yield, that allows for a decent number to come off the WL. If they get >90%, they are still ok.

Of course, it's more complicated than the above. There are LOA folks waiting on a medical waiver that factor into it. Some people who accepted and now decline b/c they got accepted to a preferable school. Moreover, we don't know how USNA treats the yield in terms of the number of offers they put out and this approach could vary from year to year.

Once they determine how many acceptances they have, they know whether they take anyone from the WL and, if so, how many. Medical or other last-minute issues can lead to offers of appointment very late in the cycle.

I am not wishing this on anyone, but I'm wondering if anyone knows if there is a pseudo-deadline where they cut off medical waivers? I don't mean a date they stop seeking new waivers, but waivers that are already in process. If they haven't come to a decision by a certain date (like the week before I day), do they just say, sorry, it's too late? Or do they keep reviewing them to the bitter end?

 

[wildcat26]

That makes it very clear, but where could there possibly be a “preferable school”? Joking (mostly) this really makes the math pretty clear with the caveat for the unknowables.

A lot of people apply to dozens of schools with no intention of going to most of them (Crazy, I know, to go through the SA process without wanting to go). They may also prefer another SA or perhaps even an Ivy, or they just decide they don't have it in them to go. I've seen these things happen.

 

[A1Janitor]

I am not wishing this on anyone, but I'm wondering if anyone knows if there is a pseudo-deadline where they cut off medical waivers? I don't mean a date they stop seeking new waivers, but waivers that are already in process. If they haven't come to a decision by a certain date (like the week before I day), do they just say, sorry, it's too late? Or do they keep reviewing them to the bitter end?

The end is when the class has been filled out.

 

[hopefulmominva]

There have been years when no one comes off the WL. It's all a question of yield. Each year, USNA (as with other competitive colleges) puts out X offers of appointment, expecting that Y% of those will accept the offer. It's unknown if USNA creates some "padding."

So (FOR EASY MATH PURPOSES ONLY), assume that USNA wants an entering class of 1200. They know that historically, the yield is 90% (meaning 90% of those offered an appointment actually accept). They make offers to 1330 candidates (which, if 90% accept yields a class size of ~1200). If fewer than 1200 accept, they start taking people off the WL until they reach 1200. If more than 1200 accept, they have a problem (as happened about a decade ago) and definitely don't take anyone from the WL. Unlike civilian colleges, the maximum number for an entering class can't be exceeded.

They can "pad" these numbers by (in my hypo) giving fewer than 1330 candidates offers -- going for less than the usual yield to hedge against too many acceptances. So they might only offer 1310 appointments. If they get the expected 90% yield, that allows for a decent number to come off the WL. If they get >90%, they are still ok.

Of course, it's more complicated than the above. There are LOA folks waiting on a medical waiver that factor into it. Some people who accepted and now decline b/c they got accepted to a preferable school. Moreover, we don't know how USNA treats the yield in terms of the number of offers they put out and this approach could vary from year to year.

Once they determine how many acceptances they have, they know whether they take anyone from the WL and, if so, how many. Medical or other last-minute issues can lead to offers of appointment very late in the cycle.

More to make my head spin. LOL Seriously, I truly appreciate the knowledge base on this forum!

 

[wildcat26]

More to make my head spin. LOL Seriously, I truly appreciate the knowledge base on this forum!

no kidding, good luck!!!

 

[mld99]

The end is when the class has been filled out.

Was that a real answer based on inside knowledge/experience or was it just a flippant response? I can't tell. You're saying that if there were 20 unfilled spots and 20 LOAs needing medical waivers with one week left before Iday, they'd keep trying to process those waivers and just hope all 20 get approved rather than give up on the waivers and pull from the waitlist?

 

[A1Janitor]

Was that a real answer based on inside knowledge/experience or was it just a flippant response? I can't tell. You're saying that if there were 20 unfilled spots and 20 LOAs needing medical waivers with one week left before Iday, they'd keep trying to process those waivers and just hope all 20 get approved rather than give up on the waivers and pull from the waitlist?

I was not being flippant.

There are people on the bubble that might get in depending on decisions made on other applicants for instance.

You are in until you aren’t.

LOAs guarantee appointments - assuming all conditions are met. Waiver decisions aren’t necessarily just on the dq of the applicant.

The needs of the navy matter. Not all LOAs get in.

But I am just a father of a midshipman who had an LOA and needed a waiver. I read this forum a lot on these topics. I might be wrong.

 

[A1Janitor]

Also - I apologize if it came across the wrong way.

Sometimes my answers are short and I should spend a little time crafting better answers.

I do joke around a lot. But one thing I am is compassionate for everyone waiting. I really am pulling for everyone on here and wish everyone the best.

 

[wildcat26]

Not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread but 14 users of this forum received appointments off the waitlist last year. Not sure if past waitlist numbers are indicative/consistent or completely random each year but that definitely brings me some peace.

Also wanted to mention that a user named moho reported on the "2027 waiting and speculating" thread that he was pulled from the waitlist and received his offer of appointment on April 22nd!

He has never posted anything on this particular thread so just wanted to make it known for those who didn't see his post.

So it seems that they may have gotten started early for some reason this year, although we haven't seen any since then, feels promising...

 

[mld99]

Not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread but 14 users of this forum received appointments off the waitlist last year. Not sure if past waitlist numbers are indicative/consistent or completely random each year but that definitely brings me some peace.

Also wanted to mention that a user named moho reported on the "2027 waiting and speculating" thread that he was pulled from the waitlist and received his offer of appointment on April 22nd!

He has never posted anything on this particular thread so just wanted to make it known for those who didn't see his post.

So it seems that they may have gotten started early for some reason this year, although we haven't seen any since then, feels promising...

For moho, the candidate who was originally chosen from his congressional slate probably declined or received a medical disqualification, so it moved straight to the remaining kids on the slate and he was the next choice. I agree, though, any movement of the waitlist is good news.

 

[Banshee Mom]

Not sure if it has been mentioned in this thread but 14 users of this forum received appointments off the waitlist last year. Not sure if past waitlist numbers are indicative/consistent or completely random each year but that definitely brings me some peace.

Also wanted to mention that a user named moho reported on the "2027 waiting and speculating" thread that he was pulled from the waitlist and received his offer of appointment on April 22nd!

He has never posted anything on this particular thread so just wanted to make it known for those who didn't see his post.

So it seems that they may have gotten started early for some reason this year, although we haven't seen any since then, feels promising...

DD was pulled from waitlist last year (2026) and accepted a Foundation offer . She is not listed on the appointment list for last year . My point being that candidates were pulled off waitlist and also offered Foundation prep.
She has received her appointment for the class of 2027. I also know there are several other waitlist from last year who are also finishing up their foundation year . Really hoping everyone hears good news , I know how stressful this can be . Good luck .

 

[Navyfly73]

DS was denied color vision waiver today…so he’s off to NROTC at The University of Pittsburgh. We knew it was a long shot being color blind but he’s relentless and he says he will reapply. Good luck to all!!! I will be rooting for you!!

Sad to hear. Was he already accepted waiting on waiver or was he on waitlist ?

 

[Shazamsail23]

Sad to hear. Was he already accepted waiting on waiver or was he on waitlist ?

He was told he was on the waitlist via his portal and had all checkmarks but his color vision waiver. He had a MOC nom. He is already making plans to apply for next year. He was fine when he first heard, but as the days go on he has been really disappointed. He shadowed the off shore sailing team in the fall and absolutely loved it and would give anything to sail with them. He has raced with a few of the sailors at USNA growing up on the Great Lakes and it’s one of the reasons that drew him there. He has raced all over with his dad. He plays AAA hockey and lacrosse as well for his school and was captain of both teams, Student Body President of his school and was part of the committee to help merge the all girls school into his boys school this year (850 kids), 3-4 AP classes each year ( heavy on STEM classes), AP Calc B/C, AP Chem 2, AP Physics etc. 1360 on SAT (high 700 in math), top 5% in his class. Great personality and has no problem with public speaking and interviewing. If he puts his heart into next year, I think he could have a shot. You don’t know until you try! He will be an engineering major and will do NROTC. All roads he says lead to the NAVY for him!!

 

[Shazamsail23]

Oh and a funny CFA side note…he beyond maxed out the basketball throw twice at NASS last summer. His company gave him a standing ovation . I said well you may not see certain colors quite right but you can throw a basketball across a stadium! Doesn’t that count for something?!?

 

[A1Janitor]

Oh and a funny CFA side note…he beyond maxed out the basketball throw twice at NASS last summer. His company gave him a standing ovation . I said well you may not see certain colors quite right but you can throw a basketball across a stadium! Doesn’t that count for something?!?

In my mind it does!

My colorblind mid - starting captain on basketball team - had a slightly above average on basketball throw. This kid had Steph Curry range.

Maxed the other events - so I tease him.

 

[Navyfly73]

He was told he was on the waitlist via his portal and had all checkmarks but his color vision waiver. He had a MOC nom. He is already making plans to apply for next year. He was fine when he first heard, but as the days go on he has been really disappointed. He shadowed the off shore sailing team in the fall and absolutely loved it and would give anything to sail with them. He has raced with a few of the sailors at USNA growing up on the Great Lakes and it’s one of the reasons that drew him there. He has raced all over with his dad. He plays AAA hockey and lacrosse as well for his school and was captain of both teams, Student Body President of his school and was part of the committee to help merge the all girls school into his boys school this year (850 kids), 3-4 AP classes each year ( heavy on STEM classes), AP Calc B/C, AP Chem 2, AP Physics etc. 1360 on SAT (high 700 in math), top 5% in his class. Great personality and has no problem with public speaking and interviewing. If he puts his heart into next year, I think he could have a shot. You don’t know until you try! He will be an engineering major and will do NROTC. All roads he says lead to the NAVY for him!!

He didn’t want a juniors contract ? Lol. My son plays hockey too. Just some levity.

 

[Shazamsail23]

He didn’t want a juniors contract ? Lol. My son plays hockey too. Just some levity.

Hahaha…that is really funny…(sooo true too) out of the five seniors on his team….four are going to play juniors. Is your DS playing for Navy? Mine had a great time playing hockey and took it as far as he wanted to go. My youngest still plays so I’ll be a rink rat/hockey mom for another two years.

 

[A1Janitor]

LOL Elon tweeted this, and I thought of here.

 

[cj_df]

Hello,

Has anyone heard anything from the academy?