USNA Class of 2028 Waiting and Speculating

Hopful_Mil_Kid said:
As I assume many candidates are, I am religiously checking my portal, and jumping out of my skin at every spam or un-expected call šŸ¤£ I've also been studying the previous appointment lists, and here is what I've found:

As of 7pm Pacific time on March 30th,
This year (Class of 2028), has 102.
For the Class of 2027, we were at 123 (out of a total of 154)
For the Class of 2026, we were at 133 (out of a total of 164)

What might the cause of this be? Here are the possibilities I came up with: (in no particular order)
1. Admissions is behind on sending out appointments.
2. This form is just less used (mods are probably the only people who could really speak to this, with all that data.)
3. Fewer people post appointments. IDK, privacy?
4. I don't understand some basic concepts of probability and large numbers/ratios that would explain this. (Likely, because I have never taken a real statistics class)

Anyways, maybe I just need to stop obsessing šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø
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5. Admissions is right on schedule.

6. If the number of appointments are in fact lower, it is because of the anticipated smaller class size.
 
Edmund said:
5. Admissions is right on schedule.

6. If the number of appointments are in fact lower, it is because of the anticipated smaller class size.
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There isn't really gonna be a smaller class size, every year there are about 1150ish new plebes with 1200 being the MAX by law they're allowed to have in once class.
 
But actually though, Im a P-nom and i know another P-nom from my state who has appointments to USMA and USAFA. Neither of us have anything from USNA and we're still pending. I honestly dont know anyone personally who has received a rejection or appointment. Any odds anyone know 'about' what percent of appointments are sent out. I don't know Im just ready to know of my status because I heard P-noms have a decent shot
 
CJP said:
But actually though, Im a P-nom and i know another P-nom from my state who has appointments to USMA and USAFA. Neither of us have anything from USNA and we're still pending. I honestly dont know anyone personally who has received a rejection or appointment. Any odds anyone know 'about' what percent of appointments are sent out. I don't know Im just ready to know of my status because I heard P-noms have a decent shot
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CJP are you comfortable sharing where you are, even if it is just by admissions region? It seems like some regions have made more progress than others
 
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CJP said:
There isn't really gonna be a smaller class size, every year there are about 1150ish new plebes with 1200 being the MAX by law they're allowed to have in once class.
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Thereā€™s going to be less room in Bancroft this year due to construction so there is going to be a smaller class.
 
Jstew5 said:
I was at an admission brief in November at the academy and the admission officer said there was going to be a smaller class size due to construction on campus.
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Exactly. This was what I was referencing. Bancroft is getting some work done.
 
CJP said:
1200 being the MAX by law they're allowed to have in once class.
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Not true.
The applicable law says how many MIDSHIPMEN are allowed to be at USNA but does not break it down by class. With a fairly steady attrition rate, USNA is able to establish a fairly consistent class size but the actual forcing function is attrition of the three classes above the entering class.
 
OldRetSWO said:
Not true.
The applicable law says how many MIDSHIPMEN are allowed to be at USNA but does not break it down by class. With a fairly steady attrition rate, USNA is able to establish a fairly consistent class size but the actual forcing function is attrition of the three classes above the entering class.
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Correct. If you look at the class of 2027 portrait, USNA made 1379 offers of appointment.

www.usna.edu

Class Portrait

Class Portrait page for Admissions at USNA.edu. Updated Sun Apr 21 04:34:10 EDT 2024.
www.usna.edu
 
1.) BGO interview date changed last week. It had an earlier date and with a check mark, then when checking today, it shows that it was submitted on 3/27. Any idea why?
2.) Also, DS received a chip from a club team. What are his chances?
 
OldRetSWO said:
Not true.
The applicable law says how many MIDSHIPMEN are allowed to be at USNA but does not break it down by class. With a fairly steady attrition rate, USNA is able to establish a fairly consistent class size but the actual forcing function is attrition of the three classes above the entering class
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Oh okay, so really there could be more than 1200 in one class it just depends on if the classes before dont have an many people.
 
CJP said:
Oh okay, so really there could be more than 1200 in one class it just depends on if the classes before dont have an many people.
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Basically. Remember though that USNA makes more offers than they have space for because they know that there will be turndowns. Later in the game, probably May/June, the people who come off waitlist will be to take the spots of people who declined.

Think of it this way, (MY NUMBERS ARE PURELY AN EXAMPLE) - Intended class size - 1175.
If 10% turndown is anticipated based on prior years, that means that 117 will decline so that would mean that offers could be sent to 1175+117 = 1292 candidates but USNA is conservative and sends out 1250. Once they have 75 declines, they start taking from the waitlist.

NOTE: This waitlist is NOT the 3Q plus nom that USMA calls the "National Waiting List" but instead are candidates who USNA contacts
in mid to late April and ASKS if they are willing to be on the waitlist.

Once the class is admitted, there continues to be attrition all the way through the four years. USNA monitors how many are left in deciding how many to admit in the next class.

FWIW, my class was the largest ever admitted - high 1500's and fewer than 1000 walked on graduation day.
 
CJP said:
But actually though, Im a P-nom and i know another P-nom from my state who has appointments to USMA and USAFA. Neither of us have anything from USNA and we're still pending. I honestly dont know anyone personally who has received a rejection or appointment. Any odds anyone know 'about' what percent of appointments are sent out. I don't know Im just ready to know of my status because I heard P-noms have a decent shot
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DS is P-nom for USNA as well and he has heard nothing either...
 
ChiefsKingdom said:
DS is P-nom for USNA as well and he has heard nothing either...
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CJP said:
But actually though, Im a P-nom and i know another P-nom from my state who has appointments to USMA and USAFA. Neither of us have anything from USNA and we're still pending. I honestly dont know anyone personally who has received a rejection or appointment. Any odds anyone know 'about' what percent of appointments are sent out. I don't know Im just ready to know of my status because I heard P-noms have a decent shot
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I'm a P-nom too. Haven't heard anything. It's possible they just haven't settled the top 100 for the slate. Or that they already have and we didn't make it. It's also possible they just haven't gotten to our apps yet.

It could mean a number of things. Nobody here can really give you anything certain. Especially in the realm of statistics. I know it's not easy, but I would suggest that you try not to think about it too much.
 
YounCandidate said:
I'm a P-nom too. Haven't heard anything. It's possible they just haven't settled the top 100 for the slate. Or that they already have and we didn't make it. It's also possible they just haven't gotten to our apps yet.

It could mean a number of things. Nobody here can really give you anything certain. Especially in the realm of statistics. I know it's not easy, but I would suggest that you try not to think about it too much.
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Great suggestion ~ as my DS is a P-Nom as well. We do know his app was looked at twice (however, portal not updated) Mid Feb was asked regarding college transcripts even though it has been confirmed they were rec,d. (box still not checked) Early this week DS high school transcripts were requested even though received and box checked. Friday he rec,d email confirmation the 2nd set has been received by admissions. So, all we know is there is movement in admissions. Good luck to all of the above.
 
StayDown05 said:
I do not know if this is helpful, but Iā€™m from KS (your Chiefs username tipped me off) and I just heard on Thursday that Iā€™m a conditional acceptance and Iā€™m a P-nom as well. So, hopefully you should hear soonā€¦ ā¤ļøšŸ’›
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ChiefsKingdom said:
DS is P-nom for USNA as well and he has heard nothing either...
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Which districts are you guys in? Iā€™m from ks as well and havenā€™t heard anything.
 
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