Only Time and WP Admissions Can Make That Call
I'm not military, or an alum - just the parent of a CO2017 appointee (won't say "New Cadet" until R-Day just in case the unthinkable happens) but I'll provide my perspective ...
IMO discontinuing both Rolling Admissions and LOA's has been both good and bad.
The Good:
1. It seems to have given the academy a chance for a complete look at all the candidates on a nomination slate. With an overall smaller class size, there are fewer NWL offers available. Consequently once a candidate is picked from a slate, there are fewer options for other candidates on that slate. So now there seems a greater chance that an early LOA could keep out a more rounded or qualified candidate whose application is completed later. With reduced class sizes, it seems more likely this could happen than a few years back where more NWL slots were available.
2. It doesn't seem like there has been any loss of candidate quality - both academically and in regards to leadership and athletics. Every appointee I've either met or read about has stellar credentials and deserves admission. The same could be said of candidates who did not get appointments.
3. If someone did a BINDING EARLY DECISION application to BigNameU, I would question if they really were sold out to USMA and to serving in the Army. I emphasized over and over again to my DS -- only go to an academy if you are determined to have a military career. If USMA "lost" them, I'm not sure it was a significant loss (yes, I am aware that many who are committed now will only serve the minimum before all is said and done). IMO, the academies need those who are committed first to service and leadership. Lee was high; Grant was low but both made great leaders of men in battle.
4. Most schools allow deposits to hold slots through May 1. Only a few CO2017 appointees appear to have been offered after that date so it doesn't seem like there should have been a loss of candidates because of that. In contrast, I know we will gladly "lose" the deposits we have made for DS' backup plans as WP is his commitment.
5. I've seen a few posts where an appointee has turned down WP for one of the other academies, and vice-versa. The other academies also allowed acceptance through May 1st so the bulk of USMA offers were already made prior to that decision point. I'm sure this happens every year so I see no significant change there. In fact with smaller class sizes looming, I fully expect we will see USNA and USAFA reduce LOAs and cut back on rolling admissions in the future.
6. The fact that admissions stated they were not offering appointments until late Feb actually kept the anxiety down until the end. That has to be good. In contrast, my DS was accepted in March to a school that has rolling admissions, and had already sent many acceptances. For that school, the lack of a decision was actually more stressful for him as he really would have wanted to attend there had an academy appointment not come through.
The Bad:
1. The waiting was a killer. As a parent and in observing my DS while waiting, Feb 28 could not get here fast enough. DS was admitted to every school he applied to - largely on his academic credentials but I believe also because of how well rounded he was. An LOE, although not a guarantee, from USMA was something he could at least take encouragement in.
2. The uncertainty that even with the LOE, he might not get a BFE. Another applicant from our district was a classmate who lettered in Football and Baseball and had solid academic and leadership credentials. A third classmate was a recruited athlete (and is headed to USMAPS). Other applicants came from premier schools in the area and competed against my DS in track and cross country (one actually earning a Div 1 X-Country scholarship). All of this weighed on my DS' and probably more Mom and Dad's minds.
3. The need to pursue as many other "Plan B/C/D" as possible. DS did have an AROTC scholarship and that was his real Plan B, but he also felt compelled to pursue non-military connected scholarships just in case a DODMERB DQ happened. But I suspect this is common in years past too.
4. There was, even as recent as a couple of weeks ago, still uncertainty for some candidates. I feel for them and their parents. But I also realize that EVERY year there are a handful of last minute appointments. So I'm not sure that is a big change.
5. If the BFE was not going to come, it would have been nice to have been mentally prepared for that. As Feb moved on, there was a lot of "hoping" that USMA would send a BFE. If the BFE had never arrived or a QNS letter received instead, it would have been a short-term disappointment but (given his AROTC opportunity) not devastating.
Overall Comments
I can see a place for rolling admissions and I can see a place to announce decisions all at once. Overall I think that rolling admissions are no longer necessary to insure a great, competitive class. Same comment regarding LOA's for most candidates.
If they DO NOT revert to rolling admissions, I'd encourage Admissions to continue the use of the LOEs, while keeping them somewhat selective. I'd also tell them to give LOA's sparingly and only to candidates that may have service connected appointments where deployment may hang over the candidate.
The firm date to expect news was reassuring. I wish more schools, and the other academies, would do that as well. I think it is just as important for the academy to send out QNS letters as soon as possible as well, so as to give finality to candidates.