"We May Not Be Able to Stop a North Korean Missile"

Discussion in 'Academy/Military News' started by 1337BeachedWhale1337, Jun 3, 2017.

  1. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/...able-to-stop-a-north-korean-missile.html?_r=0

    "The first full intercept test in three years of the Ground-based Midcourse Defense system was deemed a success. Some proponents of the program have presented the test as proof that the $40 billion system is capable of defending the United States against long-range missiles that could, in the future, be launched by a rogue nation like North Korea.

    The larger context, however, tells a very different story. Of the 10 tests of the system since 2004, when the Bush administration prematurely declared it operational, six have failed to destroy the target, including three of the last five tries.

    More revealing than the test record are the actual tests themselves. Each is highly scripted to maximize success. The timing and other details are provided in advance, information that no real enemy would provide. The weather and time of day are just right for an intercept. An adversary would use complex countermeasures, such as decoys, alongside the real missile to try to fool the defense system, but only simplistic versions of this trick have been included. Under realistic testing conditions, the program’s success rate would almost certainly be lower."

    Leads one to question what the United States has been doing for the last decade, and why nothing is being done now. Ignoring a growing problem isn't going to make it disappear, and I find it curious that we continue to wait and wait seeming to just sit here hope that somehow the problem will just fix itself. Soon it will be, "in the future", and North Korea will have those long range missiles. I personally wouldn't mind graduating a bit early and taking a visit to the Korean Peninsula...

    I've heard people say, in reference to the holocaust, "Never again." I don't think anyone can really say that without lying though, because something that is arguably far worse is taking place in North Korea at this very moment.

    So many reasons to take action, but no action being taken...
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
  2. kinnem

    kinnem Moderator 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2010
    Messages:
    10,785
    Likes Received:
    4,285
    Hmmmm.... how to allocate limited resources in a time of war? It certainly needs more attention but no defense is foolproof. If it stops even one, that's a good thing. Not sure what action you're referring to here. Despite all the rhetoric I can't see how initiating military action in the Korean peninsula can be anything but dangerous, at least to South Koreans. About the only thing that seems reasonable to attempt, to me, is to shoot down one of their test missiles and hope they don't "retaliate".
     
  3. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    The action I am referring to is war. As we continue waiting, their nuclear technology will continue to improve, eventually to the point that they can strike the United States, or at the very least, cause even more damage to South Korea/Japan than they can now. 3 decades ago when they didn't have nukes we didn't do anything. One decade ago when they had rudimentary nuclear technology we didn't do anything. Today they have technology that is more than 30x stronger than it was one decade ago. A decade from now, should we do nothing, where will their nuclear technology be? I don't think there's really any arguing that we shouldn't have done something before it got to this point. A decade from now, in hindsight I believe we are going to say the same thing about the fact that we chose to do nothing in the year 2017.

    In terms of endangering South Koreans from starting a war, I think a fix for that would be temporarily evacuating them.

    What do you suppose shooting down one of their test missiles would accomplish?
     
  4. kinnem

    kinnem Moderator 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2010
    Messages:
    10,785
    Likes Received:
    4,285
    Oh yeah, we'll just evacuate 50 million people. Easy peesy...
    Also, do you really think that at any point in the past, or even today, that we would be facing off against just N Korea? I don't think so, especially if we launch a preemptive attack.
     
  5. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    In the past, I'm not so sure if China would intervene or not(we certainly could have attempted to aggressively negotiate with China regarding dealing with North Korea once they started conducted nuclear tests, but we didn't). However, based off of what China has been saying in recent months, I don't think they would intervene in an attack against North Korea, I think there's a good chance they would even assist us.

    Certainly wouldn't be easy to evacuate South Korea, but I don't think it would be an impossibility. Also, when you consider that South Korea has one of the largest military forces in the world, that rural areas wouldn't be the target of nukes, and that South Korea is one of the wealthier countries in the world, it becomes less daunting of a task.

    Also, from a moral standpoint, I don't think sitting here and doing nothing is justifiable. If you ask just about anyone about whether or not the holocaust should have been stopped sooner than it was, I bet you 9/10 people will saw it should have. Yet North Korea has been around for 7 decades and we haven't done anything. As human beings, I believe we owe it to the people of North Korea to do something, even if it might not be in our best interest (albeit, I believe it does happen to be in our best interest to attack North Korea)

    "High school students in America debate why President Franklin D. Roosevelt didn't bomb the rail lines to Hitler's camps. Their children may ask, a generation from now, why the West stared at far clearer satellite images of Kim Jong Il's camps, and did nothing."

    -Blaine Harden
     
    Last edited: Jun 3, 2017
  6. Sledge

    Sledge Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2014
    Messages:
    749
    Likes Received:
    576
    I'm not saying we won't get our hair mussed. But I do say 10-20 million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.
     
    EDelahanty, NTWLF ONE and cb7893 like this.
  7. NavyHoops

    NavyHoops Super Moderator 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2011
    Messages:
    5,112
    Likes Received:
    5,136
    So you will be branching Air Defense (or whatever the Army calls it today) then to be a part of the fix? Lots of billets at MDA for young officers.
     
  8. cb7893

    cb7893 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,549
    Likes Received:
    995
    And do what exactly?

    If you don't want to appear to be unread, then don't use the Jewish Holocaust as a metaphor...for anything.
     
    Last edited: Jun 4, 2017
    EDelahanty and xyz321 like this.
  9. cb7893

    cb7893 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,549
    Likes Received:
    995
    Sledge, that was a brilliant reference! It took me a few minutes to figure it out.

     
  10. kinnem

    kinnem Moderator 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2010
    Messages:
    10,785
    Likes Received:
    4,285
    See? No one's hair was mussed up in the picture. Too bad the ambassador saw the big board though.
     
  11. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    Not quite sure what metaphor you are referencing to, I don't recall making any in the OP.
    I have no idea what I will be branching, but from what I have heard AD doesn't do very much.


    I think what we need to be asking is, is it acceptable for North Korea to develop to capability to hit the American homeland? If the answer to that is no, then something needs to be done.

    In reference to the mass casualties, I think there are scenarios in which North Korea does not retaliate with nukes. One way that would work is if we took out Kim and the senior military leaders as a first strike; that could cause a power struggle and give us enough time to launch a full fledged attack before they got everything sorted out and launched a nuclear weapon. It also needs to be considered that Kim probably realizes that he would not win a war against the rest of the world. If we were able to get China on-board (and based on recent news, China seems to be willing to work with us to solve this issue), and evacuate the South Koreans there (much easier than evacuating them to the US), Kim would not have many options other than making a suicide attack against China. One other scenario that might work is if we were able to do a cyber attack and get into North Korea's missile systems.
     
  12. Jcleppe

    Jcleppe 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2010
    Messages:
    6,457
    Likes Received:
    1,991
    Just to refresh your memory:

    You're either joking (if you are it's not funny) or took the wrong history classes.

    As far as the rest of your analysis, I'll chalk that up to youth and sit this discussion out.
     
    cb7893 likes this.
  13. cb7893

    cb7893 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,549
    Likes Received:
    995
    met·a·phor
    ˈmedəˌfôr,ˈmedəˌfər/

    Metaphor is a figure of speech which makes an implicit, implied or hidden comparison between two things.

    Metaphor is a figure of speech in which a word or phrase (I've heard people say, in reference to the holocaust, "Never again.") is applied to an object or action (something that is arguably far worse is taking place in North Korea at this very moment) to which it is not literally applicable.

    No shame is using metaphors. However, their use can often diminish the suffering of the victims; on both ends of the comparison. I'm not picking on you. It just gets tiresome listening to politicians, R's and D's both, the Nazi/holocaust card out at the drop of a hat.

    If you have to bring Nazi Germany into it, you stop at Munich, Neville Chamberlain, and the Sudentenland.
     
  14. BTCS/USN

    BTCS/USN Member

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2016
    Messages:
    277
    Likes Received:
    450
    BeachedWhale, your phrase "according to the news" speaks volumes. Careful what you wish for. No true warrior wants to get into a war. They're the ones that actually understands what that entails and take my word for it, you want to make that option the very last one in the toolbox.
     
  15. NTWLF ONE

    NTWLF ONE Member

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2016
    Messages:
    222
    Likes Received:
    326
    "Feed me Mandrake"....
     
  16. MemberLG

    MemberLG 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2011
    Messages:
    2,935
    Likes Received:
    519
    What international law did North Korea break by developing her nuclear weapon and associated technologies?

    It's okay for our Allies to have nuclear weapons but not our enemies?

    Don't get me wrong, North Korea's nuclear weapons are not a good thing, but what moral authority do we have to start a war against North Korea?

    Why can North Korea demand that US give up our nuclear weapons as we might use them against North Korea?
     
  17. cb7893

    cb7893 5-Year Member

    Joined:
    Dec 6, 2011
    Messages:
    1,549
    Likes Received:
    995
    So many great moments
     
  18. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    North Korean prison camps arguably constitute the greatest human rights violation in recorded history. North Korean prisoners are subject to a lives of nothing but extreme torture, hard labor, sleep deprivation, and hunger. In some camps, prisoners work upwards of sixteen hours a day performing back-breaking labor, spend several more hours each day marching, and are forced to engage in daily hour-long sessions of mutual and self-criticism leaving them with only four hours to sleep each night .Despite their strenuous labor and long waking hours, food rations for prisoners are so meager that those who eat only rationed food die of hunger. In order to survive, prisoners resort to extreme measures such as sorting through animal dung to dig out undigested corn kernels. However, obtaining food by such means is extremely risky; if caught, prisoners are often killed. Kim Yong, a North Korean prison camp survivor, testified that one of his co-workers was killed for picking up a chestnut off the ground (Kim and Suk-Yong 89). Another account details a six-year old girl being beaten to death for having five unauthorized kernels of corn. Besides demonstrating the harsh treatment North Korea prisoners are subjected to, these anecdotes reveal the extreme level of desperation North Korean prisoners feel.

    Coupled with these physical challenges is a deep emotional toll, as many prisoners are permanently separated from their families upon entering prison. For those fortunate enough to stay with their families, family relationships are close to non-existent. Shin Dong-Hyuk, a North Korean prisoner that spent the first 26 years of his life in a North Korean prison camp, described his mother “as a competitor for food”, his father as a man who “ignored him”, and his brother as “a stranger”. Shin ended up reporting his mother and brother for talking about escaping the camp in hopes of getting an extra meal for himself, and both were subsequently executed. At the time of the execution, Shin, who had been raised his entire life to believe the rules of the camp were morally right, felt they deserved to be killed for talking about escaping.

    Similar to holocaust victims, the vast prisoners in North Korean are completely innocent. If a North Korean found guilty of committing a crime, not only are they sent to a prison camp, but their entire family for three generations, often times for life. This results in many people spending their entire lives, from birth to death, in the confines of a North Korean prison camp, knowing nothing but the living hell that they were born into.

    If impregnated, women are either executed/given forced abortion. Below is a former prisoners description of one of those abortions taking place:
    [​IMG]

    I have read many books on both North Korean prison camps and the holocaust, and as bad as the holocaust was, I believe that what North Korean prisoners go through is far worse. From birth to death, their lives are complete hell. If you go to a holocaust era death camp, you are either going to die very quickly, or you are going to come out alive in 3 years. Auschwitz was around for 5 years. North Korean prisons camps have been around for around 70. I might be a lot younger than you, but I doubt you have done as much reading on either the holocaust, or North Korean prison camps as me.
     
  19. 1337BeachedWhale1337

    1337BeachedWhale1337 Member

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2016
    Messages:
    190
    Likes Received:
    73
    I still don't see the metaphor that you're referring to. Saying "something that is arguably far worse is taking place in North Korea at this very moment" is a metaphor? That's not a figure of speech, that's simply what I believe... Something arguably far worse is taking place in North Korea right now, it's not a metaphor, it's simply a statement. I'm not applying "Never again" to anything, I'm simply saying that that's a lie, and explaining why I believe that is a lie... You can't say "Never again" when something just as bad/even worse happening again right now...
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2017
  20. Blessedmom

    Blessedmom Member

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2016
    Messages:
    466
    Likes Received:
    312
    War with North Korea would be a war with China & Russia. China wants & needs the North. China, Japan, & Korea have a long & very complicated history. No one wants to touch North Korea, a country with no real resources, no oil.... even South Koreans don't want to be financially & socially burdened even if there was a miraculous unification. Yes, it's hell on earth there but a war with China & Russia would be far worse;( If China really wants to...they can stop North. We need to pressure China!
     
    Last edited: Jun 5, 2017