I have been following this thread, and have been variously confused, frustrated and upset on behalf of the waitlisted principal-nom candidates. I, too, thought that the principal nomination plus 3Q was a guarantee. I did an internet search to see what, if anything, USNA says about it, and I tripped over this:
(Dig down, there is a LOT of information here)
Also found the main page here:
The part that I am wondering about now has to do with the "vacancy" dimension. If the MOC already has 5 MIDNs charged to his/her office, does that render the principal nomination moot?
That information goes a long way to explaining what is going on. It explains how the kid I know got admitted and another primary-nom in the state did not.
I also found out from a long-time BGO that people that have been appointed do not know what nomination source they are charged against. Most appointees had multiple nominations - so it's hard to tell which MOC slots are filled and which are open.