USNA Class of 2028 Waiting and Speculating

GalleyScout said:
After the results of what was called the "first purge" on 4/9, and seeing what I thought were so many TWE's, I decided to try to get an idea of just how many people in the USNA forums were still in the running. While compiling the data the 2nd purge occurred on 4/11, and it was three times a big as the first. Now seeing the final numbers I have I'm not sure what to think for tomorrow. All I know is that there are a lot of us still "Pending".

Obviously this is not scientific in any way. It is data gathered mostly from the Waiting and Speculating post, but there were other posts as well. I'm also sure there are those that posted they were Pending at one point but then left the forum after either getting a TWE, decided on another school, or something else and didn't let the rest of know. I only went off of what I last saw posted by the SAF member. So again, these numbers are not going to be 100%, but I thought it was an interesting snapshot.

Number SAF members in the 2024 Application cycle who have commented that the status of their USNA application was at least pending: 302

The latest updates from this SAF accounts give these current numbers for applicant status:
TWE: 36
NAPS: 5
Appointment Accepted: 101
Appointment Undecided: 18
Appointment Declined: 5
Pending: 128
CPR: 6
Other: 3

Some other data points:
Fleet Applicants: 3
Reapplicants: 19
Applicants reporting an LOA: 33
DD's: 43
DS's: 106
Self: 77

Of the 36 TWE's, 8 were from the 4/9 "purge", and 24 were from the 4/11 "purge". Others were earlier in the year.

AK: (4) 2 Pending, 1 NAPS, 1 undecided
AL: (4) 1 TWE, 1 Declined, 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
AR: (1) 1 Accepted
AZ: (5) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
CA: (17) 7 Accepted, 4 undecided, 6 Pending
CO: (1) 1 Accepted
CT: (4) 3 Pending, 1 TWE
DE: (2) 1 Pending, 1 TWE
FL: (17) 4 Accepted, 1 undecided, 10 Pending, 2 TWE
GA: (15) 10 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
ID: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
IL: (8) 2 Accepted, 1 undecided, 5 Pending
IN: (3) 1 undecided, 1 NAPS, 1 Pending
KS: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
KY: (2) 2 Pending
LA: (1) 1 Accepted
MA: (5) 4 Accepted, 1 Declined
MD: (10) 5 Accepted, 2 undecided, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
MI: (4) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending
MN: (6) 1 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
MS: (1) 1 Accepted
NC: (8) 5 Accepted, 3 Pending
NJ: (7) 4 Accepted, 1 Pending, 2 TWE
NM: (1) 1 NAPS
NV: (1) 1 Accepted
NY: (10) 2 Accepted, 7 Pending, 1 TWE
OH: (4) 1 Accepted, 1 Declined, 1 Foundation, 1 TWE
OK: (1) 1 Pending
OR: (1) 1 Accepted
PA: (9) 6 Accepted, 3 Pending
SC: (4) 2 Accepted, 1 Pending, 1 TWE
TN: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
TX: (10) 6 Accepted, 1 undecided, 1 declined, 2 Pending
VA: (17) 4 Accepted, 12 Pending, 1 TWE
WA: (1) 1 Accepted
WI: (1) 1 Accepted
WV: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 TWE

State unknown: (108) 20 Accepted, 7 undecided, 1 Declined, 6 CPR, 2 LOA, 2 NAPS, 50 Pending, 20 TWE

International: (1) Accepted

It was actually kind of fun to go back and scan the posts from the last five months and relive some of the moments. Tomorrow seems like it will be the big day for a good number of us so good luck to everyone.
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Thank you🤩
 
FmrAH-64DGuy said:
And also candidates that have a high probability of staying in the service past their initial commitment.
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Admissions has no way of divining which candidates are more or less likely to stay beyond the initial AD obligation. It's simply not possible with the information provided.

As every SA class finds among their classmates: Many of those who swore they'd five-and-dive ended up staying much longer, some even pinning on stars. And many of those who declared they'd make a career out of it were among the first to separate. Nothing wrong with either path, as long you serve honorably.
 
MidCakePa said:
Admissions has no way of divining which candidates are more or less likely to stay beyond the initial AD obligation. It's simply not possible with the information provided.

As every SA class finds among their classmates: Many of those who swore they'd five-and-dive ended up staying much longer, some even pinning on stars. And many of those who declared they'd make a career out of it were among the first to separate. Nothing wrong with either path, as long you serve honorably.
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It is also true for ROTC and OCS/OTS. Until you get into your service and specialty doing a real job, you simply have no idea of whether that life is for you or you will be any good at it or whether life will toss some challenges in your way that steer you to alternative paths.

There was a guy we nicknamed “the admiral” in my OCS class. Top grades, carried himself well, was totally focused on a career in the Navy. Served honorably, left after initial obligation. I hoped to gain professional skills, support myself, start investing for the future, see a bit of the world and figured I’d stay for maybe 2 tours, then take my benefits and head for grad school. Twenty-six years later…
 
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GalleyScout said:
After the results of what was called the "first purge" on 4/9, and seeing what I thought were so many TWE's, I decided to try to get an idea of just how many people in the USNA forums were still in the running. While compiling the data the 2nd purge occurred on 4/11, and it was three times a big as the first. Now seeing the final numbers I have I'm not sure what to think for tomorrow. All I know is that there are a lot of us still "Pending".

Obviously this is not scientific in any way. It is data gathered mostly from the Waiting and Speculating post, but there were other posts as well. I'm also sure there are those that posted they were Pending at one point but then left the forum after either getting a TWE, decided on another school, or something else and didn't let the rest of know. I only went off of what I last saw posted by the SAF member. So again, these numbers are not going to be 100%, but I thought it was an interesting snapshot.

Number SAF members in the 2024 Application cycle who have commented that the status of their USNA application was at least pending: 302

The latest updates from this SAF accounts give these current numbers for applicant status:
TWE: 36
NAPS: 5
Appointment Accepted: 101
Appointment Undecided: 18
Appointment Declined: 5
Pending: 128
CPR: 6
Other: 3

Some other data points:
Fleet Applicants: 3
Reapplicants: 19
Applicants reporting an LOA: 33
DD's: 43
DS's: 106
Self: 77

Of the 36 TWE's, 8 were from the 4/9 "purge", and 24 were from the 4/11 "purge". Others were earlier in the year.

AK: (4) 2 Pending, 1 NAPS, 1 undecided
AL: (4) 1 TWE, 1 Declined, 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
AR: (1) 1 Accepted
AZ: (5) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
CA: (17) 7 Accepted, 4 undecided, 6 Pending
CO: (1) 1 Accepted
CT: (4) 3 Pending, 1 TWE
DE: (2) 1 Pending, 1 TWE
FL: (17) 4 Accepted, 1 undecided, 10 Pending, 2 TWE
GA: (15) 10 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
ID: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
IL: (8) 2 Accepted, 1 undecided, 5 Pending
IN: (3) 1 undecided, 1 NAPS, 1 Pending
KS: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
KY: (2) 2 Pending
LA: (1) 1 Accepted
MA: (5) 4 Accepted, 1 Declined
MD: (10) 5 Accepted, 2 undecided, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
MI: (4) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending
MN: (6) 1 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
MS: (1) 1 Accepted
NC: (8) 5 Accepted, 3 Pending
NJ: (7) 4 Accepted, 1 Pending, 2 TWE
NM: (1) 1 NAPS
NV: (1) 1 Accepted
NY: (10) 2 Accepted, 7 Pending, 1 TWE
OH: (4) 1 Accepted, 1 Declined, 1 Foundation, 1 TWE
OK: (1) 1 Pending
OR: (1) 1 Accepted
PA: (9) 6 Accepted, 3 Pending
SC: (4) 2 Accepted, 1 Pending, 1 TWE
TN: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
TX: (10) 6 Accepted, 1 undecided, 1 declined, 2 Pending
VA: (17) 4 Accepted, 12 Pending, 1 TWE
WA: (1) 1 Accepted
WI: (1) 1 Accepted
WV: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 TWE

State unknown: (108) 20 Accepted, 7 undecided, 1 Declined, 6 CPR, 2 LOA, 2 NAPS, 50 Pending, 20 TWE

International: (1) Accepted

It was actually kind of fun to go back and scan the posts from the last five months and relive some of the moments. Tomorrow seems like it will be the big day for a good number of us so good luck to everyone.
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Wow thank you! Good luck to you too. Pending from NJ 😉
 
FmrAH-64DGuy said:
And also candidates that have a high probability of staying in the service past their initial commitment. The Navy was short officer last FY, the Army is currently courting Reserve officers to come to active duty in certain fields and the chronic pilot shortage across the AF, Army and Navy.
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Who actually stays and goes is a whole different debate. It’s a total gamble. A lot has to do with getting your preference. Family dynamics and other factors. Of my room mates, I was the one predicted to stay a career. Well multiple combat tours did its thing to me and I was done. The one we ranked last to stay… draws retirement pay. USNA can’t predict that from day 1.
 
GalleyScout said:
After the results of what was called the "first purge" on 4/9, and seeing what I thought were so many TWE's, I decided to try to get an idea of just how many people in the USNA forums were still in the running. While compiling the data the 2nd purge occurred on 4/11, and it was three times a big as the first. Now seeing the final numbers I have I'm not sure what to think for tomorrow. All I know is that there are a lot of us still "Pending".

Obviously this is not scientific in any way. It is data gathered mostly from the Waiting and Speculating post, but there were other posts as well. I'm also sure there are those that posted they were Pending at one point but then left the forum after either getting a TWE, decided on another school, or something else and didn't let the rest of know. I only went off of what I last saw posted by the SAF member. So again, these numbers are not going to be 100%, but I thought it was an interesting snapshot.

Number SAF members in the 2024 Application cycle who have commented that the status of their USNA application was at least pending: 302

The latest updates from this SAF accounts give these current numbers for applicant status:
TWE: 36
NAPS: 5
Appointment Accepted: 101
Appointment Undecided: 18
Appointment Declined: 5
Pending: 128
CPR: 6
Other: 3

Some other data points:
Fleet Applicants: 3
Reapplicants: 19
Applicants reporting an LOA: 33
DD's: 43
DS's: 106
Self: 77

Of the 36 TWE's, 8 were from the 4/9 "purge", and 24 were from the 4/11 "purge". Others were earlier in the year.

AK: (4) 2 Pending, 1 NAPS, 1 undecided
AL: (4) 1 TWE, 1 Declined, 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
AR: (1) 1 Accepted
AZ: (5) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
CA: (17) 7 Accepted, 4 undecided, 6 Pending
CO: (1) 1 Accepted
CT: (4) 3 Pending, 1 TWE
DE: (2) 1 Pending, 1 TWE
FL: (17) 4 Accepted, 1 undecided, 10 Pending, 2 TWE
GA: (15) 10 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
ID: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
IL: (8) 2 Accepted, 1 undecided, 5 Pending
IN: (3) 1 undecided, 1 NAPS, 1 Pending
KS: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
KY: (2) 2 Pending
LA: (1) 1 Accepted
MA: (5) 4 Accepted, 1 Declined
MD: (10) 5 Accepted, 2 undecided, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
MI: (4) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending
MN: (6) 1 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
MS: (1) 1 Accepted
NC: (8) 5 Accepted, 3 Pending
NJ: (7) 4 Accepted, 1 Pending, 2 TWE
NM: (1) 1 NAPS
NV: (1) 1 Accepted
NY: (10) 2 Accepted, 7 Pending, 1 TWE
OH: (4) 1 Accepted, 1 Declined, 1 Foundation, 1 TWE
OK: (1) 1 Pending
OR: (1) 1 Accepted
PA: (9) 6 Accepted, 3 Pending
SC: (4) 2 Accepted, 1 Pending, 1 TWE
TN: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
TX: (10) 6 Accepted, 1 undecided, 1 declined, 2 Pending
VA: (17) 4 Accepted, 12 Pending, 1 TWE
WA: (1) 1 Accepted
WI: (1) 1 Accepted
WV: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 TWE

State unknown: (108) 20 Accepted, 7 undecided, 1 Declined, 6 CPR, 2 LOA, 2 NAPS, 50 Pending, 20 TWE

International: (1) Accepted

It was actually kind of fun to go back and scan the posts from the last five months and relive some of the moments. Tomorrow seems like it will be the big day for a good number of us so good luck to everyone.
Click to expand...
Appreciate the work and attention to detail that went into this.
 
MidCakePa said:
Admissions has no way of divining which candidates are more or less likely to stay beyond the initial AD obligation. It's simply not possible with the information provided.

As every SA class finds among their classmates: Many of those who swore they'd five-and-dive ended up staying much longer, some even pinning on stars. And many of those who declared they'd make a career out of it were among the first to separate. Nothing wrong with either path, as long you serve honorably.
Click to expand...
I understand, what you are saying, and I didn’t realize how long I was going to stay, but the wars opened up a lot of opportunities for me to stay in. Some doctors join to pay off medical school debt and then bail—I don’t blame them. Everyone will choose their our path.

The SAs do have decades of data on their alumni, including all their admissions data and their outcome in the military—don’t think they graduate the SA just moves on from them. So yes, I would probably say the SAs have a profile of who has a higher than average probability of leaving the service.
 

GalleyScout said:
After the results of what was called the "first purge" on 4/9, and seeing what I thought were so many TWE's, I decided to try to get an idea of just how many people in the USNA forums were still in the running. While compiling the data the 2nd purge occurred on 4/11, and it was three times a big as the first. Now seeing the final numbers I have I'm not sure what to think for tomorrow. All I know is that there are a lot of us still "Pending".

Obviously this is not scientific in any way. It is data gathered mostly from the Waiting and Speculating post, but there were other posts as well. I'm also sure there are those that posted they were Pending at one point but then left the forum after either getting a TWE, decided on another school, or something else and didn't let the rest of know. I only went off of what I last saw posted by the SAF member. So again, these numbers are not going to be 100%, but I thought it was an interesting snapshot.

Number SAF members in the 2024 Application cycle who have commented that the status of their USNA application was at least pending: 302

The latest updates from this SAF accounts give these current numbers for applicant status:
TWE: 36
NAPS: 5
Appointment Accepted: 101
Appointment Undecided: 18
Appointment Declined: 5
Pending: 128
CPR: 6
Other: 3

Some other data points:
Fleet Applicants: 3
Reapplicants: 19
Applicants reporting an LOA: 33
DD's: 43
DS's: 106
Self: 77

Of the 36 TWE's, 8 were from the 4/9 "purge", and 24 were from the 4/11 "purge". Others were earlier in the year.

AK: (4) 2 Pending, 1 NAPS, 1 undecided
AL: (4) 1 TWE, 1 Declined, 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
AR: (1) 1 Accepted
AZ: (5) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
CA: (17) 7 Accepted, 4 undecided, 6 Pending
CO: (1) 1 Accepted
CT: (4) 3 Pending, 1 TWE
DE: (2) 1 Pending, 1 TWE
FL: (17) 4 Accepted, 1 undecided, 10 Pending, 2 TWE
GA: (15) 10 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
ID: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
IL: (8) 2 Accepted, 1 undecided, 5 Pending
IN: (3) 1 undecided, 1 NAPS, 1 Pending
KS: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
KY: (2) 2 Pending
LA: (1) 1 Accepted
MA: (5) 4 Accepted, 1 Declined
MD: (10) 5 Accepted, 2 undecided, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
MI: (4) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending
MN: (6) 1 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
MS: (1) 1 Accepted
NC: (8) 5 Accepted, 3 Pending
NJ: (7) 4 Accepted, 1 Pending, 2 TWE
NM: (1) 1 NAPS
NV: (1) 1 Accepted
NY: (10) 2 Accepted, 7 Pending, 1 TWE
OH: (4) 1 Accepted, 1 Declined, 1 Foundation, 1 TWE
OK: (1) 1 Pending
OR: (1) 1 Accepted
PA: (9) 6 Accepted, 3 Pending
SC: (4) 2 Accepted, 1 Pending, 1 TWE
TN: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
TX: (10) 6 Accepted, 1 undecided, 1 declined, 2 Pending
VA: (17) 4 Accepted, 12 Pending, 1 TWE
WA: (1) 1 Accepted
WI: (1) 1 Accepted
WV: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 TWE

State unknown: (108) 20 Accepted, 7 undecided, 1 Declined, 6 CPR, 2 LOA, 2 NAPS, 50 Pending, 20 TWE

International: (1) Accepted

It was actually kind of fun to go back and scan the posts from the last five months and relive some of the moments. Tomorrow seems like it will be the big day for a good number of us so good luck to everyone.
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So great!! This is something I tried doing while in the admissions process a couple of years ago. Keeps you busy


Once again “pending” is a great place to be right now and I wish for God and destiny to place you in the absolutely best place for you
 
My DD's portal changed at Midnight EST to a Fully Qualified Offer! Her status had changed from pending to CPR on Thursday. She accepted immediately. Now she is a mixed bag of excitement and "Oh man! This is happening!" Good luck to everyone! Last year she was wait-listed for NAPS and then turned down in June. She reapplied, took plebe-like classes, and was lucky enough to receive an appointment. Stay strong! It isn't over until it is over!
 
NavySP_Mom4 said:
My DD's portal changed at Midnight EST to a Fully Qualified Offer! Her status had changed from pending to CPR on Thursday. She accepted immediately. Now she is a mixed bag of excitement and "Oh man! This is happening!" Good luck to everyone! Last year she was wait-listed for NAPS and then turned down in June. She reapplied, took plebe-like classes, and was lucky enough to receive an appointment. Stay strong! It isn't over until it is over!
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Congratulations that is wonderful news. Time to celebrate and hopefully more appointments tomorrow 🥳
 
NavySP_Mom4 said:
My DD's portal changed at Midnight EST to a Fully Qualified Offer! Her status had changed from pending to CPR on Thursday. She accepted immediately. Now she is a mixed bag of excitement and "Oh man! This is happening!" Good luck to everyone! Last year she was wait-listed for NAPS and then turned down in June. She reapplied, took plebe-like classes, and was lucky enough to receive an appointment. Stay strong! It isn't over until it is over!
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Tenacity!! And even a change from NAPS to FQO.

This is an example where someone who attends college for a year, *most likely* won’t be considered for NAPS. They have already completed a year, and proven they have the chops to do it. Essentially doing the year of prep that NAPS provides.

👏 👏 👏 congrats.
 
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GalleyScout said:
After the results of what was called the "first purge" on 4/9, and seeing what I thought were so many TWE's, I decided to try to get an idea of just how many people in the USNA forums were still in the running. While compiling the data the 2nd purge occurred on 4/11, and it was three times a big as the first. Now seeing the final numbers I have I'm not sure what to think for tomorrow. All I know is that there are a lot of us still "Pending".

Obviously this is not scientific in any way. It is data gathered mostly from the Waiting and Speculating post, but there were other posts as well. I'm also sure there are those that posted they were Pending at one point but then left the forum after either getting a TWE, decided on another school, or something else and didn't let the rest of know. I only went off of what I last saw posted by the SAF member. So again, these numbers are not going to be 100%, but I thought it was an interesting snapshot.

Number SAF members in the 2024 Application cycle who have commented that the status of their USNA application was at least pending: 302

The latest updates from this SAF accounts give these current numbers for applicant status:
TWE: 36
NAPS: 5
Appointment Accepted: 101
Appointment Undecided: 18
Appointment Declined: 5
Pending: 128
CPR: 6
Other: 3

Some other data points:
Fleet Applicants: 3
Reapplicants: 19
Applicants reporting an LOA: 33
DD's: 43
DS's: 106
Self: 77

Of the 36 TWE's, 8 were from the 4/9 "purge", and 24 were from the 4/11 "purge". Others were earlier in the year.

AK: (4) 2 Pending, 1 NAPS, 1 undecided
AL: (4) 1 TWE, 1 Declined, 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
AR: (1) 1 Accepted
AZ: (5) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
CA: (17) 7 Accepted, 4 undecided, 6 Pending
CO: (1) 1 Accepted
CT: (4) 3 Pending, 1 TWE
DE: (2) 1 Pending, 1 TWE
FL: (17) 4 Accepted, 1 undecided, 10 Pending, 2 TWE
GA: (15) 10 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
ID: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
IL: (8) 2 Accepted, 1 undecided, 5 Pending
IN: (3) 1 undecided, 1 NAPS, 1 Pending
KS: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
KY: (2) 2 Pending
LA: (1) 1 Accepted
MA: (5) 4 Accepted, 1 Declined
MD: (10) 5 Accepted, 2 undecided, 2 Pending, 1 TWE
MI: (4) 2 Accepted, 2 Pending
MN: (6) 1 Accepted, 4 Pending, 1 TWE
MS: (1) 1 Accepted
NC: (8) 5 Accepted, 3 Pending
NJ: (7) 4 Accepted, 1 Pending, 2 TWE
NM: (1) 1 NAPS
NV: (1) 1 Accepted
NY: (10) 2 Accepted, 7 Pending, 1 TWE
OH: (4) 1 Accepted, 1 Declined, 1 Foundation, 1 TWE
OK: (1) 1 Pending
OR: (1) 1 Accepted
PA: (9) 6 Accepted, 3 Pending
SC: (4) 2 Accepted, 1 Pending, 1 TWE
TN: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 Pending
TX: (10) 6 Accepted, 1 undecided, 1 declined, 2 Pending
VA: (17) 4 Accepted, 12 Pending, 1 TWE
WA: (1) 1 Accepted
WI: (1) 1 Accepted
WV: (2) 1 Accepted, 1 TWE

State unknown: (108) 20 Accepted, 7 undecided, 1 Declined, 6 CPR, 2 LOA, 2 NAPS, 50 Pending, 20 TWE

International: (1) Accepted

It was actually kind of fun to go back and scan the posts from the last five months and relive some of the moments. Tomorrow seems like it will be the big day for a good number of us so good luck to everyone.
Click to expand...
Your statistics professor is going to love you!!
 
NavySP_Mom4 said:
My DD's portal changed at Midnight EST to a Fully Qualified Offer! Her status had changed from pending to CPR on Thursday. She accepted immediately. Now she is a mixed bag of excitement and "Oh man! This is happening!" Good luck to everyone! Last year she was wait-listed for NAPS and then turned down in June. She reapplied, took plebe-like classes, and was lucky enough to receive an appointment. Stay strong! It isn't over until it is over!
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Congratulations
 
NavySP_Mom4 said:
My DD's portal changed at Midnight EST to a Fully Qualified Offer! Her status had changed from pending to CPR on Thursday. She accepted immediately. Now she is a mixed bag of excitement and "Oh man! This is happening!" Good luck to everyone! Last year she was wait-listed for NAPS and then turned down in June. She reapplied, took plebe-like classes, and was lucky enough to receive an appointment. Stay strong! It isn't over until it is over!
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Extremely happy for you and you Plebe to Be!!!!
 
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