Einstein's law of relativity:
Are you really "Competing" against 5, 10, 20, 100 people for a nomination? Are you really competing against 10,000 other applicants for an appointment? I say no?
Here's the link to the class profile of the air force academy class of 2013. You will find that this profile is similar to most years/classes:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sour...JQop_PNsHppWlTwug&sig2=hhvSjWM74wEiYLCUNzyccA
Look at the SAT/ACT averages. Look at the class average GPA. Look at the class ranking of cadets. Look at the EC's of cadets.
So, what is my point? My contention is: You are competing against yourself. EVERYTHING in that class profile; except for Sex and Race, you have complete control over. It's up to you whether you are competitive or not. If you are in the top 10% of your class; have a 3.9 gpa; composite ACT of 31; SAT around 700; involved in the EC's; etc... then it won't matter if there's 1 other person looking for a nomination and appointment from your district/state, or if there's 100.
Numbers can sound so impersonal. Anyone who knows me or has read my posts, know that I am usually one of the most upbeat and positive posters. But I won't sugar coat what I think. There's a lot of people posting the "What are my odds" type threads. Granted, this thread isn't that question. This is more a curiosity thread. But there is no right answer. No matter what is given, you are unique. How you interview for your nomination is unique. I've seen the applicant with the "LOWER" GPA and ACT can the PRIMARY (Automatic) nomination from their representative, because of their interview, activities, attitude, etc... Then there are some representatives/senators who don't prioritize their nominations at all, and let the academy pick which one to be a cadet. You are in what I call, and have mentioned many times in the past, "The Serenity Zone". Basically after the serenity prayer. "God grant me the serenity to accept the things I can not change; courage to change the things I can; and wisdom always to tell the difference". Well, this is one of those things that you have absolutely no control over. All you can do is......... "Your Best".
And that is why you're competing against yourself. If you get the best gpa, SAT, ACT, best interview, etc.... that you can; then there is absolutely nothing more that you can do. And the best is all you can expect from yourself. If you didn't do your best, then you already know that. If you did, then you already know that too. Sorry I can't answer which is more difficult to get: "The nomination.... or the appointment". There is no right answer to it. You can ask it, and hopefully anyone answering will realize that there is no right answer. If getting an appointment to the academy was strictly 100% based on numbers, and all applications were ranked from 1 - 10,000; and every single activity, class, interest, etc... was given a hard number score..... Then it would be easy to answer your question. But it doesn't work that way. You representative is not exactly like your senator; who is different from the other senator. Some put more emphasis on gpa and test scores, while another puts more emphasis on the whole person and they include all your extra curricular activities. Some were in the military themselves, and have a definite standard and quality they are looking for in an applicant. Others; hate to say it; are not very "Military Friendly". They tend to vote against everything military related. And in turn, they aren't the most conscientious in their duties for nominating academy cadets.
Sorry if my post is a little negative in attitude. That's not normally my style. But your question is one that not only did I want to answer for anyone who's already applied to the class of 2014 and simply waiting and hoping; but more for those applying in the future. This is an area that you have absolutely no control over. It doesn't matter which "Theoretically" is more difficult. You can't do anything about it; either way. Concentrate on the things you can control. Have the wisdom to tell the difference, and work hard at those things you can improve on. Then; if you are at or above the class average; that is how you will increase your odds. Best of luck to you. Mike....